Down goes the Dow

Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

No, if you want my advice. I wouldn't be comfortable with more like a move of the decimal point one place to the left, and that would be even a stretch at that level.

Why? I know it's more "risk on" than other things... but it's definitely a pyramid scheme that is going up up up for months or years to come.

A trusted source called it "digital collateral", and thinks it will go to at least $50k.

Where's Falgpole when you can actually use him?

We had a lot of discussion about this already with Maserati.

Most everything that could be wrong with it is wrong with it including widespread theft, a minefield of govt. scrutiny and legislation and reporting that could be heaped on it with the click of a mouse, whales that control big portions of the market, lack of scrutiny and regulation, and the fact that unlike stocks, you don't actually own anything other than a token with a mutually agreed upon value that chnages in the milliseconds.

Whatever floats your boat, but i find it prudent not to put as risk less than maybe one percent of one's portfolio.

seattle prattle wrote:

Where's Falgpole when you can actually use him?

He’s over on the private narcissists thread with Max and Igy.

Financial Advisor wrote:

agip wrote:

yeah nah the SPX is up 17.5% including dividends. It wins.

But huge props to Hussman for holding on to his bear market gains. So hard for bear funds to not give it all back. He did a fantastic job holding on to gains.

On the other hand...a simple long term bond fund was up the same as Hussman. So that's not great. (BLV)

Not to mention the fees that Hussman charges. S&P for the easy win when dividends and fees are taken into account.

I think the two swine farmers are the arbiters here. At least as of yesterday’s close the pigs give it to Hussman.

I think what the OP is saying is that you may have been good at saving money over the years, but bad at earning an income.

going through my saved links.

here's Hussman from five years ago. Saying exactly the same thing he's saying now. Exactly.

Since then:

USA: +110%

Hussman: -20%

The financial markets are establishing an extreme that we expect investors will remember for the remainder of history, joining other memorable peers that include 1906, 1929, 1937, 1966, 1972, 2000 and 2007. The failure to recognize this moment as historic is largely because investors have been urged to believe things that aren’t true, have never been true, and can be demonstrated to be untrue across a century of history. The broad market has been in an extended distribution process for nearly a year (during which the NYSE Composite has gone nowhere) yet every marginal high or brief market burst seems infinitely important from a short-sighted perspective. Like other major peaks throughout history, we expect that these minor details will be forgotten within the sheer scope of what follows. And like other historical extremes, the beliefs that enable them are widely embraced as common knowledge, though there is always, always, some wrinkle that makes “this time” seem different. That is why history only rhymes. But in its broad refrain, this time is not different.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150622.htm

Mid-March 2020:

Here's a high level former Obama economic expert, comparing the financial crisis to the virus crisis. And somehow he completely forgot the power of the government to send out money into the country. He though 2020 would be worse than 2008-9. It isn't.

Jason Furman

At this point, this feels much worse than 2008. Lehman Brothers was quite bad, but it was the culmination of a sequence of things that had happened over 14 months. This hit all at once.

There were a lot of people lucky and privileged enough that they didn’t reduce their spending in 2008. But everyone is doing it now. I was in a restaurant yesterday, possibly for the last time for a while. I was in a taxi, possibly the last time for a while. There are entire industries I interact with where I’m realizing: “This may be the last time I’m paying you for a while.” That didn’t happen in 2008. When you start to think about all of that, it just gives you a feeling for the enormity of this economically.

If two months from now we go back to normal, I think we’d be okay. If this lasts six months or longer — and I think that’s the more likely scenario — all of that just compounds. Even if you discover a cure in December, you still have people out of jobs, broken balance sheets, bankrupt companies that won’t be particularly eager to hire.

The economic effects might outlast the health effects.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/coronavirus-covid-19-recession-stock-market-economy-jobs-stimulus

agip,

What does every firm on Wall Street do this time every year? And perhaps you too. Mark up the index 8-10% by applying a multiple to EPS. So what, just the other side of the argument.

Igy

June 10, 2020:

Trump and the stock market 1, Fed 0.

here the fed proved far too pessimistic. It predicted an unemployment rate of 9.5% in 12/20. We're around 6.7%. The stock market saw the positives coming and kept rising.

///

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and near zero on Wednesday as the central bank projected a slow economic recovery from the pandemic-induced recession.

In their first economic projections this year, Fed officials indicated that they expected the unemployment rate to end 2020 at 9.3 percent and remain elevated for years, coming in at 5.5 percent in 2022, The New York Times’s Jeanna Smialek reports. Output is expected to be 6.5 percent lower at the end of this year than it was in the final quarter of 2019.

“Nearly 20 million jobs have been lost on net since February,” the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, said at a news conference following the release of the forecast, and noted that the figure probably understates the extent of unemployment. “The downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans.”

The new forecasts predict a much slower path back to economic strength than the Trump administration — and perhaps the stock market — seems to expect as the economy climbs out of a virus-spurred downturn. The Fed skipped its quarterly economic summary in March as the pandemic gripped the United States, sowing uncertainty as business activity came to a near standstill.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

“Market capitalization is nothing more than outstanding shares times the last price. The last price is determined by just two people: the most eager buyer and the most eager seller. Everyone else’s paper “wealth” is determined by those investors. Prices don’t move because money goes “into” or “out of” the market, but rather because the sellers were more eager than the buyers, or vice versa. If a dentist in Poughkeepsie decides to sell a single share of Apple just 10 cents below the previous market price, $1.7 billion in paper “wealth” suddenly vanishes. Nobody gets it. It just disappears.

For passive investors, the chart below shows our projection of expected 12-year average annual nominal total returns for a passive investment mix invested 60% in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills. This projection is now easily the lowest in U.S. history.”

anyone else here follow doug kass on twitter? He's been dead nuts on for the virtually each move. Up and down. He leans bearish but managed to change his mind and rode this market up.

Here is in near the bottom

https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1238456928822493186?s=20

here's sven, march 8 predicting a wild VIX of 90.

The vix got to 85 2 weeks later, but the market didn't collapse as he thought it would at such a high vix.

Good courageous call though. He predicted a vix that had never happened before.

https://northmantrader.com/2020/03/08/vix-shock/

If the Fed and Congress didn’t pump $Trillions into the economy we would have bottomed below 1500. Which may have been a better outcome to what is coming.

March 2018

nope. VCs aren't always that great at politics. Even the smartest ones.

Billionaire venture capitalist and entrepreneur Peter Thiel predicts that Donald Trump will get a second term in 2020.

“I think that if he runs again, he will get re-elected,” Thiel said at an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York on Thursday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-thiel-trump-runs-will-re-elected-181751957.html

Feb 2018

Good call. But it probably would have been a bad call if the virus hadn't hit.

///

The roaring American economy will probably sink into a recession before President Trump stands for re-election in 2020.

At least that's the view of Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis.

"The probability of a recession prior to the next presidential election would be relatively high, 70% or something like that," Dalio said on Wednesday evening during an appearance at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/22/news/economy/recession-election-ray-dalio-2020/index.html

Gruntz wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Where's Falgpole when you can actually use him?

He’s over on the private narcissists thread with Max and Igy.

Hey crazy obsessed Troll Guy, who’s Max?

agip wrote:

anyone else here follow doug kass on twitter? He's been dead nuts on for the virtually each move. Up and down. He leans bearish but managed to change his mind and rode this market up.

Here is in near the bottom

https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1238456928822493186?s=20

what's he saying now?

Feb 2020

bad call. This guy predicted we'd have lots of shortages. Didn't happen.

the coronavirus is going to introduce economic conditions with which few people in modern America are familiar: the prospect of shortages. After 25 years of offshoring and consolidation, we now rely on overseas production for just about everything. Now in the wake of the coronavirus, China has shut down much of its production; South Korea and Italy will shut down as well. Once the final imports from these countries have worked their way through the supply chains and hit our shores, it could be a while before we get more. This coronavirus will reveal, in other words, a crisis of production—and one that’s coming just in time for a presidential election.

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-will-mark-the-end-of-affluence-politics/?fbclid=IwAR1dUZ57KwnKq5REaXXrNvTaS74oPSwMVAFQa_mrHwi_gxTzTQYk215B4SQ&fbclid=IwAR2aqOLU8q4hXvuweS4Us5TdvCVO1oaTvOgXfpVN7MenbtLw6Lrq5VPYiPs&mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bib #1 wrote:

100% chance that the market will regain lost value in future months. You can take that to the bank.

That is actually very wrong. History would say ten years from the high.

You really need to avoid posting on things you know little about.

...aaaaand to close out my kept links, here's one of our own, sort of predicting ten years til the next high in stocks. This is page 1933 if you want to poke around to see how we all act during a crisis. Interesting stuff, psychologically.

Happy Holidays, all. I'll be back with more 12/31/2021.

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

anyone else here follow doug kass on twitter? He's been dead nuts on for the virtually each move. Up and down. He leans bearish but managed to change his mind and rode this market up.

Here is in near the bottom

https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1238456928822493186?s=20

what's he saying now?

he's a trader, so hard to say. Mostly he's bearish these days, but more on stocks he picks than the market as a whole. But from the march-october rally he was calling the ups and the downs correctly. He must have made a fortune.