Down goes the Dow

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

agip wrote:

that's me, at around 3:30...with the gold mask. What a night. True story: EWS is actually a documentary, in parts.

Post anything about Stanley Kubrick or George Orwell and you'll get a positive response from agip. The Smiths and Morrissey and you'll get a negative reply.

I feel seen. Grazie.

I'd appreciate no references to Radiohead either.

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

Honestly, Doc R, Ramsey offers bread and butter advice to people who need it.

The ideas he pushes...getting out of debt, limiting spending on vehicles, investing regularly...are universal and absolute goods.

As for his own mistakes...so he messed up a few deals - so what. Doesn't make his advice less valuable.

If any middle class people turned on the radio in 2000, heard Dave Ramsey talk, took his message to heart and followed it for 20 years...they'd be ahead of 90% of the country.

What little i know of the guy, i gather that Agip is right. And it really looks like the people who need to hear that are listening to him.

Dave Ramsey gives solid, not perfect advice. His stance on owning credit cards is weird and wrong for people who don't have issues with debt. His idea that you shouldn't take any loans for college is bad. Most of the rest of it is good stuff though. His vocal Christianity on his show is silly, but whatever.

He says put 15% or more into retirement accounts. That is good advice.

He says get out of debt as soon as you can and plan to own your home outright before you retire. That is good advice.

Those two things are the backbone of his ideas that he has built an empire on. Hard to argue with that.

agip wrote:

Rack-Ette wrote:

His advice is great if you're in already in a mountain of debt but part of getting out of debt is learning to be more financially savvy, not staying totally oblivious.

Paying for things in all cash and avoiding all debt is a great way to stay poor, especially these days when rates on everything are so low. People who took out personal loans and went heavy on margin accounts to buy the dip in March are the ones who are sitting on piles of gold right now and ready to retire.

your advice to teachers and truck drivers is to take out margin loans and lever up on their market longs?

Those margin loans can be a disaster. I inherited an account where the investor was levered up into the same type of stocks many are today. He had a million in equity on a $1.5 million account. By the time I got the client, after his advisor was fired, the account was well under $100,000. The downside comes fast, and out of control.

Suzie Orman was telling people to get out of the market in early 2009.

Rack-Ette wrote:

His advice is great if you're in already in a mountain of debt but part of getting out of debt is learning to be more financially savvy, not staying totally oblivious.

Paying for things in all cash and avoiding all debt is a great way to stay poor, especially these days when rates on everything are so low. People who took out personal loans and went heavy on margin accounts to buy the dip in March are the ones who are sitting on piles of gold right now and ready to retire.

Meh. Not being in debt is not a great way to stay poor. His approach has you invest AND get out of debt.

Having no debt allows you to keep more of your income.

Having no debt is a safety net in case your income stream is broken.

A good financial plan includes investing and the elimination of debt.

One thing Ramsey says that I agree with is, if someone (or you) paid off your house, would you take a loan against it to invest in the market? The answer to that is no and should be no.

His advice is completely monolithic which is great only of you're an edge case. For everyone else, there's nuance and there's no such thing as a single "good financial plan."

Strictly avoiding debt will keep you behind. Why would I pay all cash or put a huge down payment on anything right now, especially a depreciating asset like a car? If my income stream is interrupted then I'm way better off having a ton of cash on hand than I am with a slightly lower monthly payment. "Well I have 0 dollars in the bank but thank God my monthly car payment is only $150 a month instead of $230!"

His only good advice is the debt snowball which is for people in over their heads

agip wrote:

Rack-Ette wrote:

His advice is great if you're in already in a mountain of debt but part of getting out of debt is learning to be more financially savvy, not staying totally oblivious.

Paying for things in all cash and avoiding all debt is a great way to stay poor, especially these days when rates on everything are so low. People who took out personal loans and went heavy on margin accounts to buy the dip in March are the ones who are sitting on piles of gold right now and ready to retire.

your advice to teachers and truck drivers is to take out margin loans and lever up on their market longs?

If they did that in March then they wouldn't be teachers and truck drivers anymore, they'd be retired and worth about a trillion dollars

Rack-Ette wrote:

agip wrote:

your advice to teachers and truck drivers is to take out margin loans and lever up on their market longs?

If they did that in March then they wouldn't be teachers and truck drivers anymore, they'd be retired and worth about a trillion dollars

geez.

I'm in my mid 50s. I grew up upper middle class. The number of my childhood friends who have saved and invested as they should...is minimal.

If they had followed Ramsey from when they started working at 22 or 24 they'd all be very rich.

Simple wins when you are talking financial advice for the masses. It's hard enough to follow Ramsey...much harder to do all the fancy tricks you think they should study up and learn.

markets are predicting some inflation. Probably seeing a lot of cash chasing goods over the summer, post virus. Might be a good time to sell some long term bonds.

Some rough examples of TIPS doing much better than straight treasuries (the durations are not precise but close enough):

INTERMEDIATE TERM:

5-7 year straight treasuries:

1m: 0%

3m -0.6%

5-7 year TIPS

1m +0.92%

3m: +1.0%

SHORT TERM

1-3 year Treasuries

1m: 0%

3m: 0%

1-3 year TIPS

1m +0.8%

3m +1.2%

From 2016 Porsche Cayman Guy:

Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through December 28, 2020. The top performer is the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund up 15.64%, followed by our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.62%. India's BSE SENSEX is in third with a gain of 14.79% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in fourth with a gain of 13.52%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 13.79%.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

From 2016 Porsche Cayman Guy:

Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through December 28, 2020. The top performer is the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund up 15.64%, followed by our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.62%.

Igy, didn't you predict Hussman would outperform the S&P in 2020? Looks like this one is coming down to the wire!

Flagpole wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

What little i know of the guy, i gather that Agip is right. And it really looks like the people who need to hear that are listening to him.

Dave Ramsey gives solid, not perfect advice. His stance on owning credit cards is weird and wrong for people who don't have issues with debt. His idea that you shouldn't take any loans for college is bad. Most of the rest of it is good stuff though. His vocal Christianity on his show is silly, but whatever.

He says put 15% or more into retirement accounts. That is good advice.

He says get out of debt as soon as you can and plan to own your home outright before you retire. That is good advice.

Those two things are the backbone of his ideas that he has built an empire on. Hard to argue with that.

Several reputable studies confirm that people spend more (18% or more) when using a credit card versus cash.

J. Hardy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

From 2016 Porsche Cayman Guy:

Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through December 28, 2020. The top performer is the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund up 15.64%, followed by our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.62%.

Igy, didn't you predict Hussman would outperform the S&P in 2020? Looks like this one is coming down to the wire!

yeah nah the SPX is up 17.5% including dividends. It wins.

But huge props to Hussman for holding on to his bear market gains. So hard for bear funds to not give it all back. He did a fantastic job holding on to gains.

On the other hand...a simple long term bond fund was up the same as Hussman. So that's not great. (BLV)

the media is corrupt wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Dave Ramsey gives solid, not perfect advice. His stance on owning credit cards is weird and wrong for people who don't have issues with debt. His idea that you shouldn't take any loans for college is bad. Most of the rest of it is good stuff though. His vocal Christianity on his show is silly, but whatever.

He says put 15% or more into retirement accounts. That is good advice.

He says get out of debt as soon as you can and plan to own your home outright before you retire. That is good advice.

Those two things are the backbone of his ideas that he has built an empire on. Hard to argue with that.

Several reputable studies confirm that people spend more (18% or more) when using a credit card versus cash.

great point

agip wrote:

J. Hardy wrote:

Igy, didn't you predict Hussman would outperform the S&P in 2020? Looks like this one is coming down to the wire!

yeah nah the SPX is up 17.5% including dividends. It wins.

But huge props to Hussman for holding on to his bear market gains. So hard for bear funds to not give it all back. He did a fantastic job holding on to gains.

On the other hand...a simple long term bond fund was up the same as Hussman. So that's not great. (BLV)

TTM dividend yield 1.61%

agip wrote:

markets are predicting some inflation. Probably seeing a lot of cash chasing goods over the summer, post virus. Might be a good time to sell some long term bonds.

Some rough examples of TIPS doing much better than straight treasuries (the durations are not precise but close enough):

INTERMEDIATE TERM:

5-7 year straight treasuries:

1m: 0%

3m -0.6%

5-7 year TIPS

1m +0.92%

3m: +1.0%

SHORT TERM

1-3 year Treasuries

1m: 0%

3m: 0%

1-3 year TIPS

1m +0.8%

3m +1.2%

Long vol is the new long bond. Out.

@Mephisto731

Big day for me.

Tesla up.

Bitcoin up.

Nio and Xpev up.

Throw more in BTC at this point? 16% allocation, I be having right now.

Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:

Throw more in BTC at this point? 16% allocation, I be having right now.

No, if you want my advice. I wouldn't be comfortable with more like a move of the decimal point one place to the left, and that would be even a stretch at that level.

agip wrote:

J. Hardy wrote:

Igy, didn't you predict Hussman would outperform the S&P in 2020? Looks like this one is coming down to the wire!

yeah nah the SPX is up 17.5% including dividends. It wins.

But huge props to Hussman for holding on to his bear market gains. So hard for bear funds to not give it all back. He did a fantastic job holding on to gains.

On the other hand...a simple long term bond fund was up the same as Hussman. So that's not great. (BLV)

Not to mention the fees that Hussman charges. S&P for the easy win when dividends and fees are taken into account.