Down goes the Dow

SIPC insures the integrity of the positions you own (100 shares of XYZ), not an account value. Really just protection against malfeasance in custodial holdings.

The bear case for everything is zero. For civilization itself.

Such a statement is meaningless and amounts to nothing more than headline-grabbing.

Did not get around to selling off some or all of my Tsla.

Seems to be heading down quickly in first hour after close

The Unkle wrote:

Did not get around to selling off some or all of my Tsla.

Seems to be heading down quickly in first hour after close

Not on my screen it isn't.

ANd you guys- it's triple witching Friday! All bets are off. Breathe deep. Or at least breathe. Whole new set of rules in that case.

A few thoughts.

On first movers, what happens when Amazon comes out and says, 'we see that crypto is the way of the future, and wishing to get on board for the good of our customers, we will be releasing a Amazon PrimeCoin for use across all our platforms and interested businesses within 6 months..'?

ALgos go crazy and your investment trips to half its value in milliseconds, never to recover, and in fact to slowly sink to something admittedly above zero.

Yes, hacks do happen to all kinds of businesses but when they happen to a bitcoin holder or trading platform, it's to a whole new level. It's not like they get you credit card number, it's like they cleaned out your bank account in the click of a mouse. Poof! And it has happened already in a scale that is frightening. Sure, there's safeguards but they come at a cost and they are a real pain in the behind.

And here's the cogent point i am trying to make - these things don't even have to happen to you. It's the first rumor that they might be happening that will cause panic selling, and your investment suffers regardless. Fact is, a lot of bitcoin use is by entities that want to remain unaccountable. You don't care if it becomes more above ground, but when the rumor surfaces of a change, all those players jump ship. And all the other investors not wanting to get left holding the bag of a depressed shares jump ship as well. And that is just if some rumor surfaces.... Becuase now there will be less intrinsic value in the not-so-secret currency.

I get the appeal. High risk, high reward potential.

I'll leave it at that. These are just the inherent risks involved, and there's a whole host of reasons i don't fundamentally like it, but that's different.

seattle prattle wrote:

[quote]The Unkle wrote:

Did not get around to selling off some or all of my Tsla.

Seems to be heading down quickly in first hour after close

Not on my screen it isn't.

Huh? What are you looking at?

real time quote currently up 3.45%

Are you jerking my chain?

I have it down about 2.7%.

Bitcoin—yes there are risks. Many of the same risks apply to a great many other things, equities included, including panic crash.

With more big money moving in, and giant trusts like GBTC having a good damping lag, adverse news won’t matter so much. These events do not affect the basis upon which value is predicated. In every market there are investors, traders, and speculators.

Amzn would be a payment system, which esp at that level is mo competitor to bitcoin and does not affect its value proposition.

The big threats are gov/bankers, which are big and dumb and use power. Hopefully there would be compensation for takings. Also bitcoin could extinguish itself through no volatility, and nobody willing to facilitate increasingly rare transactions. Just cool off like a white dwarf.

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

^^^ that was the best article i've ever read on ZeroHedge.

Like one of the commentators said, though, "TSLA after monday cant tank..... way too much in index funds.... Musk sold his soul to the devil for it, but TSLA may not blow up but it cant go down much."

But seriously good summary of views of this big change for the index and for the stock.

Here is @SqueezeMetrics thread and some commentary on it.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1339434552192868352.htmlhttps://twitter.com/bauhiniacapital/status/1339454710265249793https://twitter.com/alexharfouche1/status/1339575546150326275

Also check out @spotgamma

This is actually interesting and I'd like to know more.

I think we may find out eventually that the rise in popularity of apps like Robinhood and the new norm of zero transaction fees from almost all brokers has contributed a bit more than expected to the speculative bubble of everything.

Yes, retail buying power is sh!t compared to institutions but I don't think option buying and gambling has ever been this prolific. So many people are into buying calls on anything and everything now. Each one of those call options represents 100 shares. What do institutions selling those calls usually do to stay delta neutral? They buy shares on the other side of the trade and essential write covered calls. I guess theoretically it should balance out but idk

Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2020, 28 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 56 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.

confirming your suspicion, i know some young people that have taken up options trading.

* I should add that they warned me, want to know where the short term price movements of a stock that looks funny are coming from? Look at the options expirations for that day.

seattle prattle wrote:

real time quote currently up 3.45%

Are you jerking my chain?

i think the thing is, i'm talking about up 3.45% in after hours trading from the day opening price, and you guys are talking percentage down from the close.

seattle prattle wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

real time quote currently up 3.45%

Are you jerking my chain?

i think the thing is, i'm talking about up 3.45% in after hours trading from the day opening price, and you guys are talking percentage down from the close.

Why would you measure from anything other than the closing price if we are talking about the change since close?

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2020, 28 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 56 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.

From same report:

“As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report a year- over-year decline in earnings of -9.7%, compared to a year-over-year decline in earnings of -12.8% on September 30.

If -9.7% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the third-largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009, trailing only the first and second quarters of this year. It will also mark the seventh time in the past eight quarters in which the index has reported a year-over-year decline in earnings.”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2020, 28 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 56 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.

From same report:

“As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report a year- over-year decline in earnings of -9.7%, compared to a year-over-year decline in earnings of -12.8% on September 30.

If -9.7% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the third-largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009, trailing only the first and second quarters of this year. It will also mark the seventh time in the past eight quarters in which the index has reported a year-over-year decline in earnings.”

So things are improving. Great!

seattle prattle wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Did not get around to selling off some or all of my Tsla.

Seems to be heading down quickly in first hour after close

Not on my screen it isn't.

ANd you guys- it's triple witching Friday! All bets are off. Breathe deep. Or at least breathe. Whole new set of rules in that case.

Financials up after hours, Fed released new stress test. Banks can resume buy backs if profitable. I would imagine some might increase divided, hopefully BAC. ( Disclaimer; I own shares in BAC. Currently getting over 5% from dividends on original purchase price. Way more than my wife makes on her (our) checking and MMF there. )

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Not on my screen it isn't.

ANd you guys- it's triple witching Friday! All bets are off. Breathe deep. Or at least breathe. Whole new set of rules in that case.

Financials up after hours, Fed released new stress test. Banks can resume buy backs if profitable. I would imagine some might increase dividend, hopefully BAC. ( Disclaimer; I own shares in BAC. Currently getting over 5% from dividends on original purchase price. Way more than my wife makes on her (our) checking and MMF there. )

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2020-dec-stress-test-results-20201218.pdf

Fixed it.