Down goes the Dow

within the timeframe noted (10/11/18 to present) the difference in performance btwn. them is 3%. Virtually the same. So what's your point?

More importantly, at least as far as i am concerned, I used the downturn of late 2018 to transition out of small cap and more heavily weighted into technology, which turned into the winning strategy, and continues to be so.

OK.

BUt i have to admit, i didn't see that coming.

Here is what the commies think about TSLA????(China is actually more communist than Russia—and a real threat, but whatever). Anyway:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/monday-tesla-will-join-sp500-heres-what-happens-next

^^^ that was the best article i've ever read on ZeroHedge.

Like one of the commentators said, though, "TSLA after monday cant tank..... way too much in index funds.... Musk sold his soul to the devil for it, but TSLA may not blow up but it cant go down much."

But seriously good summary of views of this big change for the index and for the stock.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I couldn't have said it better myself. Keep up the good work. Stop the make every vote count!

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance

Thanks, up 14.71% this year, like I said it would.....JH

It’s vital to establish how your tail hedge portfolio would perform during long stretches of equity bull markets. Anyone can show massive returns during crashes, but those do you no good if you bleed to much during a 10 year period of no crashes.

@HedgeTail

My biggest beef with Hussman; HSGFX was a Market Neutral fund and around 2011 morphed into a Short Bias fund. I believe he really felt there would be a recession in late 2011 ( has did many others; e.g. the Economic Cycle Research Institute ). Since then he has just doubled down; the Monte Carlo Fallacy. Now, if you believe he will maintain his short bias, a proper allocation to his fund as a tail hedge will work, but I would rather use a fund or ETF I know is structured to be short the market or long volatility. Remember Feb 1, 2018, I suggested using Pimco's Stock Plus Short. May I also suggest a long vol ETF such as VIXY or VXX; a 5% allocation with a 95% S&P 500 ETF, rebalance quarterly has done well in the past. Do your own DD. *

*Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

John Hussman wrote:

You got that right. Igy and I are both card carrying Trumpkins and we know what he will do for the economy during his second term. Let’s just keep those Ruskies where they belong. DJT does not need their help anymore.

Also, if you think my fees are too high, you can just do what Igy did and not buy the fund. (At least that’s why I think he didn’t buy it. After all, he has repeatedly expressed his love for us.)

You’re a real dope Troll, as usual don’t know your ass from a hole in the ground. Hussman is a large Democratic donor and hates Trump.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1244352891734941699

Hey, slow down there, Billy Barr. I thought we were on the same side. That tweet is in no way a negative reaction to Trump. Quite the opposite, in fact. Your radar needs calibration, my friend.

Yes, I have donated to Democrats. And I have also donated to Republicans. Any smart investment manager knows how to play the game. So do I. And Trump has obviously been good for my signature fund. He’s helped us turn this thing around and now we on an unstoppable ride UP the mountain. We should reach the peak by the end of this next Trump term. #MAGA

seattle prattle wrote:

^^^ that was the best article i've ever read on ZeroHedge.

Like one of the commentators said, though, "TSLA after monday cant tank..... way too much in index funds.... Musk sold his soul to the devil for it, but TSLA may not blow up but it cant go down much."

But seriously good summary of views of this big change for the index and for the stock.

Here is @SqueezeMetrics thread and some commentary on it.

Also check out @spotgamma

Been following squeeze for a long time. He along with a number of voltwit give insight to the tail wagging the dog. This chart from Liz Ann Sonders ( not part of voltwit )

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Epb1t1UW4AQ5EFM?format=jpg&name=small

Now this from sqzmetrics, hit max and GEX,

https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix

?

https://squeezemetrics.com/download/white_paper.pdf

I sold tsla earlier to free up some capital. In hindsight I should have used other cash instead. Same with pypl.

Otoh i increased my pypl btc position, favorably. I won’t sell any of it for 20 years, if even then. Bought after reading through Darvas again.

Yesterday was a big day, markets dialing back a bit today.

No general agmt on whether there will be a significant retracement in the next few months.

Maserati wrote:

I sold tsla earlier to free up some capital. In hindsight I should have used other cash instead. Same with pypl.

Otoh i increased my pypl btc position, favorably. I won’t sell any of it for 20 years, if even then. Bought after reading through Darvas again.

Yesterday was a big day, markets dialing back a bit today.

No general agmt on whether there will be a significant retracement in the next few months.

General agreement on bitcoin price direction? Are you serious? If you want that i would chat up the dozen or two whales. My bet is that they have a nice little communication ring and would be more than willing to let you in on how this will be manipulated next. Cause their ain't no regulations prohibiting it with this thing.

Good luck. I'm not biting.

Otoh, i have significant positions in the others you mentioned, Tsla and PayPal. Shopify has been really sweet in that regard as well.

Wish we could have ended out this week on an more up note, but not looking like it at this point.

Mulling over getting out of Tesla before closing today -- prior to its being listed on the S+P.

Tough call.

It's been great the past month leading up to this

I meant agmt on sp500 direction.

These equities, the sky’s the limit, no matter what Igy says. Again, crack shacks in Hongcouver go for millions, some art over $100M, etc. I should get back into tsla, in all honesty I could see it going to 1k. Easily.

The bitcoin—the world is a lot bigger than the USA, and others care about btc. Big-time. There is so much more room to move that whales don’t make significant sales. Like I said about equities already years ago, what else are you going to buy? Everything else has its risks and costs, even if you just buy and hold land, etc.

It is not a business, and not an investment this time. It is a store of value. It moves in fits and starts, but it is very young. If it only matched the usd decline, that would be fine. My view has always been, and continues to be, that inflation runs at maybe 6-7%.

So far I have it only through pypl, but once outside the US I will consider holding some myself. Got an account, a physical wallet, and a cryptosteel is coming in preparation, which I would put in a safe deposit box.

Still don’t know full details of node system, and protections. Nobody insures this stuff, yet. I can take a flyer for a coin or two, but no more. For me, it’s worth the risk. Yes I know about historic wallet hacks.

But no way I would hold a physical wallet in the US. Speaking of which, I now have over 4k in pypl, I should check their “insurance” in their TOU.

The Unkle wrote:

Mulling over getting out of Tesla before closing today -- prior to its being listed on the S+P.

Tough call.

It's been great the past month leading up to this

Yep, tough one.

Bought some AAL at 17, considering buying some more today, down to 16.40 so far

I feel pretty good about S&P direction through mid-January at least and santa claus rallies seem to be the norm.

Tesla long term, not sure, but i expect less volatility come next year and that may be a good thing.

Bitcoin makes me just too nervous. Like Tesla, as it moves to larger platforms, institutional adoption in the case of bitcoin, it becomes more stable.

But i would be prepared for some bombshells. Like Govt. X is going to institute stricter governance of it or the US will start requiring 1099 tax disclosures from brokerages for accounts in excess of $100K, or whatever. At the slightest rumor, guess where your value goes. And that's just the legit stuff, let alone all the pitfalls from theft, hacking, transitional errors, brokers going out of business or disapperaing. Or even the news that some other super efficient crypto is being developed to compete with bitcoin.

I would feel pretty good about Paypal in that they have too much to lose to cut corners.

I've used CoinBase, located in CA, and they were really well regarded and seem to have their safeguards in place. Nice platform when you get into their Coinbase Pro. In fact, really nice.

Nike kicking ass at about $138 per share. 2 for 1 split planned on 12/24/20.