Down goes the Dow

BTW that last poster wasn't me.

OMG are you serious? Can't write much because I'm at work, but I will check back after work.

2.1% swing from top to bottom today in the sp500 so far....that's a lot

although small caps aren't doing much so not utterly terrifying

"maserati", what a genius.

dow now down about 75 from an initial rise of near 300. sheer genius

in other news, this doesn't look good.

ok check that - now it is terrifying -- small caps did a 3% crash in just a couple hours.

tomorrow is going to suck

And by "suck", you mean it will be great, right?

Don't worry, at -100 on the day, the government started buying.

interesting facts:

globally, stocks haven't gone anywhere for 8-9 months. ticker VT

in the US, there has been no material increase for 6 months or so. VTI

I really hate trading range markets - they scare you out at the bottom of the range and then they get you all excited at the top of the range.

actually global stocks have been dead in teh water for a full year - ouch

By "ouch", you mean "it's time to buy!", right?

401 OK wrote:

By "ouch", you mean "it's time to buy!", right?

well not yet - when I truly panic and sell something, then it's probably time to buy.

I'm not selling anything, so the market will probably fall for a few days. Then I'll sell somethign out of some misconceived, mis-implemented risk control system, and the market will take off.

but seriously - small caps falling 3% in an afternoon is pretty nasty - that is not good at all. Unless it is good of course.

lol

DJIA closed down only 27, whoever said the feds started buying at -100 was probably right.

Regarding the masserati poster, you have to wonder if he is right about some things, like market intervention. I know how you, agip, think about the HFT influence, and you may be just as correct. Who is actually right and in what measure, who knows. So your prediction is that the markets will be down for the next day or two? I guess maserati would say that it would then rise, depending on how far it sank in those couple of days.

Will be interesting to watch...I have given up getting ulcers by daily charting. I now track my 401k performance using only a weekly average, and I am thinking about going to monthly.

401 OK wrote:

lol

DJIA closed down only 27, whoever said the feds started buying at -100 was probably right.

Regarding the masserati poster, you have to wonder if he is right about some things, like market intervention. I know how you, agip, think about the HFT influence, and you may be just as correct. Who is actually right and in what measure, who knows. So your prediction is that the markets will be down for the next day or two? I guess maserati would say that it would then rise, depending on how far it sank in those couple of days.

Will be interesting to watch...I have given up getting ulcers by daily charting. I now track my 401k performance using only a weekly average, and I am thinking about going to monthly.

Well, you are moving in the right direction. Tell me when you get up do decadal which is about where you should be.

agip wrote:

ok check that - now it is terrifying -- small caps did a 3% crash in just a couple hours.

tomorrow is going to suck

just sayin'

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

ok check that - now it is terrifying -- small caps did a 3% crash in just a couple hours.

tomorrow is going to suck

just sayin'

+1

Decadal, indeed.

agip you and flagpole should have a batphone sort of device. i'm sure that any time you sell, flagpole will be willing to buy whatever you have.

down close to 200 now, watch for the intraday mas rebound, lol

Down about 260 now, we will see if the "fed" "starts buying" at 300 down, as maserati would suggest.

401 OK wrote:

Decadal, indeed.

agip you and flagpole should have a batphone sort of device. i'm sure that any time you sell, flagpole will be willing to buy whatever you have.

down close to 200 now, watch for the intraday mas rebound, lol

Yes, indeed, decadal is the right time frame.

Which one of the following do you not believe:

1) Numerous studies have shown that nobody can predict the short-term swings of the market with sufficient consistency to profit from it

or

2) You are not the exception to 1)

Because if you believe 1) and 2) (and only a fool believes otherwise) then it is lunacy to try to adjust your investments on a shorter term time frame and somewhat worse than a complete waste of time to concern yourself with such tracking.

I am sorry but that is just the way it is.

Crescent Mgmt. wrote:

Down about 260 now, we will see if the "fed" "starts buying" at 300 down, as maserati would suggest.

ok lets see...

the options are:

1) a secret, illegal stock buying program that requires massive conspiracy and has never had a single whistleblower

or

2) there is so much fear in this market, that markets self adjust. meaning, the market falls 3-4%, fear spikes and that's it - the selling is done and traders have been trained to start buying whenever the VIX climbs to 2o or 22 or whatever.

Look at the VIX - it is already at around the highest levels it has been at for years:

that tells you that traders are probably just about done selling/panicking/buying insurance in the form of options. Now it doesn't make any sense for them to buy options - too expensive.

I watch mostly out of neurosis, I admit. However, I do change things up sometimes, for instance last year on some euro news I dumped some euro funds in favor of some US healthcare-based REIT's. The euro funds I got rid of proceeded to drop almost immediately, and have stayed down, while the REIT's have done fine. So sometimes the neurosis allows me to act quickly enough to make a difference.

But you are right, it probably doesn't matter in the long run. I'm still neurotic, though.