Diljeet has some insta stories today showing the 10 including Hutchins on her championship team. The one showing them running single file might be a hint on who the current top seven are. Jane, Chamberlain, Rohatinsky, Lovell, Alder, (Hansen, not on XC team), Roberts, Farmer, Hutchins, Goff, Macchia.
Diljeet always holds out two or three of her national team at regionals. My guess is that will be Jane, Alder, and Hutchins.
Diljeet has some insta stories today showing the 10 including Hutchins on her championship team. The one showing them running single file might be a hint on who the current top seven are. Jane, Chamberlain, Rohatinsky, Lovell, Alder, (Hansen, not on XC team), Roberts, Farmer, Hutchins, Goff, Macchia.
Diljeet always holds out two or three of her national team at regionals. My guess is that will be Jane, Alder, and Hutchins.
I wonder to what extent she'll use finishing order at regionals to decide the back end of her team at nationals, since they've been pretty interchangeable all year, or whether she'll use other considerations. E.g., Macchia was their #5 at Big 12s, so if she can replicate that maybe she'll be in; on the other hand, maybe she'll judge one freshman to be enough.
I'll post the newest race reels here: https://apopt.com that anyone is welcome to view, download, and freely share.
If you'll be at NCAAs in Columbia, MO with a nice camera and shooting video (minimum 1080p, 60 fps with 60-200mm lens), let me know if I can include your videos in the reels. The AI takes raw video (any format, resolution) and puts together each runner highlight based on bib numbers.
In the following comparison between Oregon, and NC State, we: (1) award the best TiC’s from any of this season’s performances for the Oregon five; (2) give NC State’s five their TiCs from Nuttycombe; (3) as done previously, the points in parenthesis are based on TiC delta’s from the 2024 Natty’s. (For example, the difference between a 15:32 TiC, awarded to Ceili McCabe, and a 15:36 TiC, awarded to Kimberly May, was 10-6 places = 4pnts.)
We come up with NC State under Oregon by 51pnts, as follows:
Here are the times that the NC State five will need to run at Natty’s in order to at least achieve their TiCs awarded at Nuttycombe (times were derived by comparing previous TiCs and times from GansCreek and Pre-Nats): Hartman 15:15 -> 19:00 Napoleon 15:19 -> 19:05 Gapes 15:32 -> 19:20 Michalak 15:32 -> 19:20 Englehardt 15:48 -> 19:40
In the following comparison between Oregon, and NC State, we: (1) award the best TiC’s from any of this season’s performances for the Oregon five; (2) give NC State’s five their TiCs from Nuttycombe; (3) as done previously, the points in parenthesis are based on TiC delta’s from the 2024 Natty’s. (For example, the difference between a 15:32 TiC, awarded to Ceili McCabe, and a 15:36 TiC, awarded to Kimberly May, was 10-6 places = 4pnts.)
We come up with NC State under Oregon by 51pnts, as follows:
Here are the times that the NC State five will need to run at Natty’s in order to at least achieve their TiCs awarded at Nuttycombe (times were derived by comparing previous TiCs and times from GansCreek and Pre-Nats): Hartman 15:15 -> 19:00 Napoleon 15:19 -> 19:05 Gapes 15:32 -> 19:20 Michalak 15:32 -> 19:20 Englehardt 15:48 -> 19:40
The above times obviously assume similar course conditions to those of GansCreek and Pre-Nats.
Her 14:41 TiC awarded at the Big12 may have been a wee bit generous. Nonetheless, if she can match it, a 14:41 TiC on the Missouri course would be ~18:19.
Her 14:41 TiC awarded at the Big12 may have been a wee bit generous. Nonetheless, if she can match it, a 14:41 TiC on the Missouri course would be ~18:19.
She increased her TiC by 19 seconds in two weeks. The Nationals is three weeks after the Big12, so another improvement of 27 seconds is on the table. I expect 17:52 from Jane. She will be ahead of the entire field by at least 35 seconds.
Her 14:41 TiC awarded at the Big12 may have been a wee bit generous. Nonetheless, if she can match it, a 14:41 TiC on the Missouri course would be ~18:19.
She increased her TiC by 19 seconds in two weeks. The Nationals is three weeks after the Big12, so another improvement of 27 seconds is on the table. I expect 17:52 from Jane. She will be ahead of the entire field by at least 35 seconds.
Her 14:41 TiC awarded at the Big12 may have been a wee bit generous. Nonetheless, if she can match it, a 14:41 TiC on the Missouri course would be ~18:19.
She increased her TiC by 19 seconds in two weeks. The Nationals is three weeks after the Big12, so another improvement of 27 seconds is on the table. I expect 17:52 from Jane. She will be ahead of the entire field by at least 35 seconds.
alright man im a jane fan but this excessive even for me
I read on a NC State forum that there will need to be two gators - one for Hedengren and one for the rest of the field. Obviously a bit dramatic but to make a point.
I think the race is either going to be closer than people think it will be or the field will let Jane run away.
I read on a NC State forum that there will need to be two gators - one for Hedengren and one for the rest of the field. Obviously a bit dramatic but to make a point.
I think the race is either going to be closer than people think it will be or the field will let Jane run away.
I will be surprised if Lemngole and Kosgei let her go if she sets a very fast early pace. Maybe she will be able to drop them if she does that but I will be surprised if it is early. In any case I think Lemngole will try to wait to make the last move. I would think the rest of the field would be wise to ignore Hedengren and the other 2 if the early move happens. I would think it would be good for BYU to try to get 1 or 2 from OR or NC St to go too fast and end up fading in final K.
One nice thing about this course is it has a few fixed cameras so one can see the field pass while a camera remains on the leader(s).
I think Hartman, as the leader, needs to get them out, even if she fades and it costs her a few places; the back end can then more than makes it up; burn out the BYU back-end depth and the Oregon milers.
I think Hartman, as the leader, needs to get them out, even if she fades and it costs her a few places; the back end can then more than makes it up; burn out the BYU back-end depth and the Oregon milers.
well, sure make sure the pace is maybe 19:20ish vs 20:00 or so....but not sub 19
I read on a NC State forum that there will need to be two gators - one for Hedengren and one for the rest of the field. Obviously a bit dramatic but to make a point.
I think the race is either going to be closer than people think it will be or the field will let Jane run away.
I will be surprised if Lemngole and Kosgei let her go if she sets a very fast early pace. Maybe she will be able to drop them if she does that but I will be surprised if it is early. In any case I think Lemngole will try to wait to make the last move. I would think the rest of the field would be wise to ignore Hedengren and the other 2 if the early move happens. I would think it would be good for BYU to try to get 1 or 2 from OR or NC St to go too fast and end up fading in final K.
One nice thing about this course is it has a few fixed cameras so one can see the field pass while a camera remains on the leader(s).
I would be surprised too. I expect the three women to cover each others moves with some hard moves being made in the last 2-3k.
Those are Nuttycombe efforts. But this course is not hilly like Nuttycombe.
I suspect Hartman might be ailing, maybe due to her plantar. Nonetheless, this race needs to be fast and honest to best benefit the Wolfpack. Get it rolling, lessen the chop in the pack. If she is hurting, she’ll be taking one for the team.