Down goes the Dow

What a day, I think I’m in the green on everything I bought except maybe PYPL—even miners.

Ridiculous. I am half thinking to get out while I can before the election, except for the miners.

But only half thinking.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

What a day, I think I’m in the green on everything I bought except maybe PYPL—even miners.

Ridiculous. I am half thinking to get out while I can before the election, except for the miners.

But only half thinking.

I hear ya, but as for the election, my seat of my pants prediction is:

Biden wins, no surprise, markets go up mildly.

Trump wins, surprise, market surpirsed and doesn't know what to make of it, first rallies then sells off, directionless and volatile.

Outcome uncertain or contested - markets sink and demonstrate Covid like response, sinking with bad news, rising on hope of a resolution.

As for the miners, there's a dedicated following of investors in that space who time the sector way better than i ever have, and they always end up eating my lunch. Not falling for that one again.

The Unkle wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

Another reason I don’t care if market goes down is that I’m in contribution phase of my life. I’m a net buyer. So if stocks go down, I’m buying at cheaper prices.

Simple math.

You lifetime holdings go down in value while you get to buy a few cheaper stocks,

Since you presumably have a lot more in lifetime savings than you are investing each week or two, you are losing money when the market goes down.

You are just repeating sales nonsense propagated by modern day snake-oil salesman

Ladies and gentlemen, this is why you don’t go to a place like letsrun for investment advice.

You bought miners and PYPL? Lol me too, only I am not thinking of getting out at all.

Matter of fact, I’m thinking of increasing my exposure. Like I rambled about before, I think that either way, there will be an election bump. We have already seen how all news is good news, except for “no stimulus”—and neither party will deliver THAT news.

There was handwringing over a possible Biden win, until that was spun as a good thing. It’s all good, as usual.

The way I see it, and I know agip will disagree, is that equities are one of the few things that have kept pace with real inflation. These records are just inflation-adjusted prices. They are not overvalued—it is everything else that is an undervalued rip-off, especially no-respect commodities.

Look at the dump oil is taking—as truck orders soar! (Allegedly.)

Even after today’s action, I might look to buy some more AMZN, I think I’m underweight.

And like I said about TSLA, it is a gov darling. Space-X IS government. Cannot fail, and Musky knows it. Mine is up nicely since I bought it.

Seattle I’m in miners for the longer term. WTF does that mean? TBH, IDK.

I am even going so far as to be considering buying a bitcoin or two. Seriously. Obviously pure speculation.

... and as for the TECL and TQQQ i advised you on?

Look no further.

The Unkle wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

Another reason I don’t care if market goes down is that I’m in contribution phase of my life. I’m a net buyer. So if stocks go down, I’m buying at cheaper prices.

Simple math.

You lifetime holdings go down in value while you get to buy a few cheaper stocks,

Since you presumably have a lot more in lifetime savings than you are investing each week or two, you are losing money when the market goes down.

You are just repeating sales nonsense propagated by modern day snake-oil salesman

You really don't get about asset allocation. When you hold a mix of equity and bonds, and the market tanks, bonds don't tank as much as equity. Then, you buy more equity with bonds that didn't lose in much value.

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "Since you presumably have a lot more in lifetime savings than you are investing each week or two, you are losing money when the market goes down."

But I'll say this. Of course that at that MOMENT when the stocks are down, my value in stocks are down. Yes, of course that's true. And it's understood that market goes up and down so there will be down days. However, I believe the equity that I buy will have long term upward trend, so I buy more on those down days.

Yes, if I sell my equity on the down days, then my losses will be realized. But I buy more on the down days by shifting my bonds to equity.

This is simple asset allocation. Please learn about this.

George Corwin wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Simple math.

You lifetime holdings go down in value while you get to buy a few cheaper stocks,

Since you presumably have a lot more in lifetime savings than you are investing each week or two, you are losing money when the market goes down.

You are just repeating sales nonsense propagated by modern day snake-oil salesman

Ladies and gentlemen, this is why you don’t go to a place like letsrun for investment advice.

This is an example of someone who cannot respond to listed facts and so instead makes a silly comment like this. Ladies and Gentlemen.

i get the idea, but the part that would concern me is if you are truly in the "contribution phase of your life" as would be true of an investor in the earlier stages of their career, I would question the virtue of holding much of a bond portfolio at all. I could see it if we were talking some considerable sums overall, but often not the case with younger investors.

It would be interesting to compare your results over a sufficiently long time span against a simple dollar cost averaging approaching of pure stock portfolio (with a modest cash reserve, of course). I mean, returns on bonds are not really going to get you far if you have yet to realize the bulk of your intended retirement savings.

I think the approach I am advocating would be true of most investors until at which time their portfolio grew to a size which would warrant shielding some of it in safer investments vehicles like bonds.

[quote]Bummbull wrote:

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "Since you presumably have a lot more in lifetime savings than you are investing each week or two, you are losing money when the market goes down."

How hard is that to follow?

You have been saving and investing for years, probably decades.

The value of your holdings at any time are far greater than the money you are adding to it at any point in time.

Example. You are 45 years old and have $1 million in investments and are putting in $1,000 per week.

The market falls 10% and you lose $100k in value. But you can buy a few extra shares with your $1,000 contribution.

Now, that's really not so hard, is it?

[quote]Bummbull wrote:

[quote]The Unkle wrote:

[quote]Bummbull wrote:

However, I believe the equity that I buy will have long term upward trend, so I buy more on those down days.

That's a belief. Given the current economy, I don't share that belief.

Yes, if I sell my equity on the down days, then my losses will be realized.

Lost value is lost value. Not just when you sell.

My Tesla on a run again today.

Up over 3% today and price has now flown past the price at the time of the stock split.

The Unkle wrote:

My Tesla on a run again today.

Up over 3% today and price has now flown past the price at the time of the stock split.

Igy a bit quiet today. Nasdaq up to 12,000. Dow 29,000. S & P up close to 3600. Igy were you not predicting the Dow down to 12,000 not long ago? When do you ever admit defeat?

Calamity Joe wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

My Tesla on a run again today.

Up over 3% today and price has now flown past the price at the time of the stock split.

Igy a bit quiet today. Nasdaq up to 12,000. Dow 29,000. S & P up close to 3600. Igy were you not predicting the Dow down to 12,000 not long ago? When do you ever admit defeat?

Oh, it's coming.

The economy is far worse than it was during the 2008-2009 meltdown.

There is a massive crash coming.

Just not yet.

Have fun while this lasts

The Unkle wrote:

Calamity Joe wrote:

Igy a bit quiet today. Nasdaq up to 12,000. Dow 29,000. S & P up close to 3600. Igy were you not predicting the Dow down to 12,000 not long ago? When do you ever admit defeat?

Oh, it's coming.

The economy is far worse than it was during the 2008-2009 meltdown.

There is a massive crash coming.

Just not yet.

Have fun while this lasts

It's been "coming" for 12 years now. For 12 years. You have been preaching doomsday crap for 7 years now. You have missed out on historic highs for many years now. When are you goingo get on board and enjoy the unbelievable stock market run? OR are you always going to be a doomsayer who misses out on the market highs?

The Unkle wrote:

Calamity Joe wrote:

Igy a bit quiet today. Nasdaq up to 12,000. Dow 29,000. S & P up close to 3600. Igy were you not predicting the Dow down to 12,000 not long ago? When do you ever admit defeat?

Oh, it's coming.

The economy is far worse than it was during the 2008-2009 meltdown.

There is a massive crash coming.

Just not yet.

Have fun while this lasts

"Just not yet." "Just not yet." Hilarious. We have been saying the market will tank very soon but for 12 years the market has reached all time highs. We have been guaranteeing massive declines for 7 years - and the market has not declined and has instead reached all-time highs - and our response is "just not yet." What a joke.

Sally Vix wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Oh, it's coming.

The economy is far worse than it was during the 2008-2009 meltdown.

There is a massive crash coming.

Just not yet.

Have fun while this lasts

It's been "coming" for 12 years now. For 12 years. You have been preaching doomsday crap for 7 years now. You have missed out on historic highs for many years now. When are you goingo get on board and enjoy the unbelievable stock market run? OR are you always going to be a doomsayer who misses out on the market highs?

You do recognize that the economy is in tatters?

And will only get worse after lockdowns return? They are coming back.

It seems to me that with the economy in ruin that eventually the market will follow.

No?

Don't be so sensitive and whiny.

Stock market is booming because Wall Street is confident that Trump will be easily re-elected.