The Unkle wrote:
[quote]agip wrote:
"... Joe Biden's calm and steady hand"
Wow! Just wow!
Dementia Joe probably doesn’t even realize he’s running for President.
The Unkle wrote:
[quote]agip wrote:
"... Joe Biden's calm and steady hand"
Wow! Just wow!
Dementia Joe probably doesn’t even realize he’s running for President.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
For sure, both parties would/will continue to kick the can as far down the road as possible.
Biden et al would do it smoothly, seamlessly, ebulliently, and with abandon. Trump would do it tortuously, grumblingly, and with conditions—but it will get done, and that is what the stock market is all about.
At the same time, though, the USD will take a dump.
Economically I used to hope that R would win, because D will want to tax us out of existence—but it’s much easier to provide both fiscal and monetary stimulus than it is to pass big new taxes. I think they will come, but only after the celebratory stimulus orgy. I plan to try to capture the first and avoid the second, should D win.
I will ride it out longer if R wins, especially if they keep the Senate. Everything was all-guns-blazing before covid, and there is every reason to expect a return to the old modus operandi.
Yes I know each new stimulus dollar has less effect than the last, but it needs to be put in the context of political events. What I don’t know is how to play the election itself and the transition period. Getting lots of recos. I think I am ok in mostly cash, with a bunch of miners, a few tech, and a mostly-US megacap fund. Foreign RE, currencies, and art as hedges. I will not capture to any great extent any meteoric US rise.
I have zero idea who will win. Media say D, people in private say R. You guys doing anything in particular to position yourselves? Selling shale if you think D wins?
keep in mind that Obama did a pretty good job at keeping the deficit in line. His numbers are misleading because 2009 had massive stimulus, which made the deficit enormous. But Bush2 signed the 2009 budget, not Obama. After 2010 or so Obama was pretty good at keeping the deficit under control.
I'm not taking any specific actions in regard to the election, no.
I've been buying emerging markets pretty steadily, and maintaining my gold position. Those will only work if the dollar is stable or falls, so I guess I'm not optimistic about the USD.
And I'm light in equities - at around 59% vs a normal of 65%.
Energy has been a dead trade for 15 years - Seems the market is telling us loud and clear that oil is not a growth industry anymore. How the world has changed.
I have a reflation bet on. but I'm losing confidence in it. Mostly with TIPS.
Huh, so I am suppose to believe that electric car companies and solar companies that have no profit are a better investment than a major oil company. I don’t think so.
I do agree with buying energy right now.
I like XOM and BP.
Bummbull wrote:
I do agree with buying energy right now.
I like XOM and BP.
And CVX. Probably CVX and XOM
Other ideas SLB and XLE ETF....
Still outperforming in 2020:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh, so I am suppose to believe that electric car companies and solar companies that have no profit are a better investment than a major oil company. I don’t think so.
Ever hear of AMZN?
OK, you believe TSLA and NKLA are AMZN? Sure, the world of today’s finance allows a myriad of unprofitable companies funded by Robinhood retail investors, SPAQs, and sucked in by institutions. We’ll see if they are the new AMZN. Could also be IPET. That is my bet.
wondering wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh, so I am suppose to believe that electric car companies and solar companies that have no profit are a better investment than a major oil company. I don’t think so.
Ever hear of AMZN?
Were you buying AMZN in 1999?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
Ever hear of AMZN?
Were you buying AMZN in 1999?
Yes. AAPL too.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Still outperforming in 2020:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance
Thanks, Igy! Yes, we are now less than 39% below where we were at inception. There’s no where to go but up! Your $10,000 genesis investment would today be worth $6,100 (minus my fees, of course). What’s not to like?
Hey, Igy, have you bought any yet?
Trump and Melania test positive for Coronavirus.
seattle prattle wrote:Trump and Melania test positive for Coronavirus.
Saw that. Futures are pointing to a nervous open, down 1-2%. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the US markets end the day in the black. It's Friday after all, and it seems like 9 out of 10 Fridays this year have ended strongly.
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:Trump and Melania test positive for Coronavirus.
Saw that. Futures are pointing to a nervous open, down 1-2%. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the US markets end the day in the black. It's Friday after all, and it seems like 9 out of 10 Fridays this year have ended strongly.
Sounds about right to me, watch for those timing it to take advantage of a buying opportunity. And we did know that he was being tested, so not a complete surprise.
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:Trump and Melania test positive for Coronavirus.
Saw that. Futures are pointing to a nervous open, down 1-2%. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the US markets end the day in the black. It's Friday after all, and it seems like 9 out of 10 Fridays this year have ended strongly.
Go long CLX.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:Go long CLX.
:-)
And in case anybody hasn't seen this video, my Friday gift to the DWTD cabal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCkWzr1o4EUThe start of the video is just too timely...
Lol. I showed Mrs. Maserati, and of course she already knew all about her.
Funny, I thought futures might rise on this news.
Go gold! Excluding my big purchase of miners earlier in the year, everything I have other than TSLA and AMZN are still in the red. What shiite?.
So nobody really has any election plans? Or just not saying?