agip wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
The average white family is far worse off now that it was in the 50s, 60s, and 70s.
Nonwhites have always been screwed in America
absolute nonsensical nonsense.
like saying the world is flat or reptiles run the federal gummint.
Nonwhites have not always been screwed in America?
The avg white family does not have more debt and a lower net worth than in the 1970s?
Oh those inconvenient truths.
Those horrible 50s, 60s, and 70s where the average white family was supported by one member working who did not attend college yet oft managed to have a paid for home and a vacation home.
The Unkle wrote:
Those horrible 50s, 60s, and 70s where the average white family was supported by one member working who did not attend college yet oft managed to have a paid for home and a vacation home.
anyone who thinks living standards were higher for white people in the the 70s compared to today is too dumb to debate.
Try google. You'll learn something.
Day 2 of the great post-Trump stock market rally.
Market is up another percent in the premarket, after a similar rally yesterday, after Trump blew himself up in the debate.
Markets really, really would prefer Joe Biden's calm and steady hand.
Which is counter to what many 'conservatives' would like to think.
Remember - Bush1, Bush2 and Trump were not great for stocks.
Clinton and Obama were much better for stocks.
Although to be fair another factor at play right now is that congress is coming up with another stimulus plan.
agip wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
Those horrible 50s, 60s, and 70s where the average white family was supported by one member working who did not attend college yet oft managed to have a paid for home and a vacation home.
anyone who thinks living standards were higher for white people in the the 70s compared to today is too dumb to debate.
Try google. You'll learn something.
The facts back my side.
As do the observations of anyone who was alive back then.
Mothers did not work. Kids did not work. Your fact and argument free name calling does not work.
Families did not have hundreds of thousands of dollars in college debt. Houses were far more affordable. Health care was far more affordable.
The uber rich paid income taxes. The division of wealth was horribly skewed but far less so than today.
[quote]agip wrote:
"... Joe Biden's calm and steady hand"
Wow! Just wow!
For sure, both parties would/will continue to kick the can as far down the road as possible.
Biden et al would do it smoothly, seamlessly, ebulliently, and with abandon. Trump would do it tortuously, grumblingly, and with conditions—but it will get done, and that is what the stock market is all about.
At the same time, though, the USD will take a dump.
Economically I used to hope that R would win, because D will want to tax us out of existence—but it’s much easier to provide both fiscal and monetary stimulus than it is to pass big new taxes. I think they will come, but only after the celebratory stimulus orgy. I plan to try to capture the first and avoid the second, should D win.
I will ride it out longer if R wins, especially if they keep the Senate. Everything was all-guns-blazing before covid, and there is every reason to expect a return to the old modus operandi.
Yes I know each new stimulus dollar has less effect than the last, but it needs to be put in the context of political events. What I don’t know is how to play the election itself and the transition period. Getting lots of recos. I think I am ok in mostly cash, with a bunch of miners, a few tech, and a mostly-US megacap fund. Foreign RE, currencies, and art as hedges. I will not capture to any great extent any meteoric US rise.
I have zero idea who will win. Media say D, people in private say R. You guys doing anything in particular to position yourselves? Selling shale if you think D wins?
That was confusing: I jope to capture the first in time (stimulus orgy) and aboid the second in time (tax). You know what I mean?
Maserati wrote:
For sure, both parties would/will continue to kick the can as far down the road as possible.
Biden et al would do it smoothly, seamlessly, ebulliently, and with abandon. Trump would do it tortuously, grumblingly, and with conditions—but it will get done, and that is what the stock market is all about.
At the same time, though, the USD will take a dump.
Economically I used to hope that R would win, because D will want to tax us out of existence—but it’s much easier to provide both fiscal and monetary stimulus than it is to pass big new taxes. I think they will come, but only after the celebratory stimulus orgy. I plan to try to capture the first and avoid the second, should D win.
I will ride it out longer if R wins, especially if they keep the Senate. Everything was all-guns-blazing before covid, and there is every reason to expect a return to the old modus operandi.
Yes I know each new stimulus dollar has less effect than the last, but it needs to be put in the context of political events. What I don’t know is how to play the election itself and the transition period. Getting lots of recos. I think I am ok in mostly cash, with a bunch of miners, a few tech, and a mostly-US megacap fund. Foreign RE, currencies, and art as hedges. I will not capture to any great extent any meteoric US rise.
I have zero idea who will win. Media say D, people in private say R. You guys doing anything in particular to position yourselves? Selling shale if you think D wins?
keep in mind that Obama did a pretty good job at keeping the deficit in line. His numbers are misleading because 2009 had massive stimulus, which made the deficit enormous. But Bush2 signed the 2009 budget, not Obama. After 2010 or so Obama was pretty good at keeping the deficit under control.
I'm not taking any specific actions in regard to the election, no.
I've been buying emerging markets pretty steadily, and maintaining my gold position. Those will only work if the dollar is stable or falls, so I guess I'm not optimistic about the USD.
And I'm light in equities - at around 59% vs a normal of 65%.
Energy has been a dead trade for 15 years - Seems the market is telling us loud and clear that oil is not a growth industry anymore. How the world has changed.
I have a reflation bet on. but I'm losing confidence in it. Mostly with TIPS.
I have been hesitant to get into EM equities.
Maserati wrote:
I have been hesitant to get into EM equities.
in the end it's a faith trade...the investing world oscillates, and EM has underperformed 10+ years. That shouldn't last. Something will change.
Plus, EM companies have done some deleveraging that should help.
D’s playing politics with stimulus. As desired, markets falling.
Looking like October is starting off to be positive in Nasdaq.
Maserati wrote:
For sure, both parties would/will continue to kick the can as far down the road as possible.
Biden et al would do it smoothly, seamlessly, ebulliently, and with abandon. Trump would do it tortuously, grumblingly, and with conditions—but it will get done, and that is what the stock market is all about.
At the same time, though, the USD will take a dump.
Economically I used to hope that R would win, because D will want to tax us out of existence—but it’s much easier to provide both fiscal and monetary stimulus than it is to pass big new taxes. I think they will come, but only after the celebratory stimulus orgy. I plan to try to capture the first and avoid the second, should D win.
I will ride it out longer if R wins, especially if they keep the Senate. Everything was all-guns-blazing before covid, and there is every reason to expect a return to the old modus operandi.
Yes I know each new stimulus dollar has less effect than the last, but it needs to be put in the context of political events. What I don’t know is how to play the election itself and the transition period. Getting lots of recos. I think I am ok in mostly cash, with a bunch of miners, a few tech, and a mostly-US megacap fund. Foreign RE, currencies, and art as hedges. I will not capture to any great extent any meteoric US rise.
I have zero idea who will win. Media say D, people in private say R. You guys doing anything in particular to position yourselves? Selling shale if you think D wins?
In simplified terms, it seems the things Dems would do might hurt in the short term, but be beneficial for long term stability and growth. The Reps, the opposite.
I'm not making any changes based on expected outcomes. The wildcard imo is how much of an election mess will there be and how will the markets react to that. I mean, there are plusses and minuses to either outcome market wise, but the market will not like ensuing chaos at all.
seattle prattle wrote:
Maserati wrote:
For sure, both parties would/will continue to kick the can as far down the road as possible.
Biden et al would do it smoothly, seamlessly, ebulliently, and with abandon. Trump would do it tortuously, grumblingly, and with conditions—but it will get done, and that is what the stock market is all about.
At the same time, though, the USD will take a dump.
Economically I used to hope that R would win, because D will want to tax us out of existence—but it’s much easier to provide both fiscal and monetary stimulus than it is to pass big new taxes. I think they will come, but only after the celebratory stimulus orgy. I plan to try to capture the first and avoid the second, should D win.
I will ride it out longer if R wins, especially if they keep the Senate. Everything was all-guns-blazing before covid, and there is every reason to expect a return to the old modus operandi.
Yes I know each new stimulus dollar has less effect than the last, but it needs to be put in the context of political events. What I don’t know is how to play the election itself and the transition period. Getting lots of recos. I think I am ok in mostly cash, with a bunch of miners, a few tech, and a mostly-US megacap fund. Foreign RE, currencies, and art as hedges. I will not capture to any great extent any meteoric US rise.
I have zero idea who will win. Media say D, people in private say R. You guys doing anything in particular to position yourselves? Selling shale if you think D wins?
In simplified terms, it seems the things Dems would do might hurt in the short term, but be beneficial for long term stability and growth. The Reps, the opposite.
I'm not making any changes based on expected outcomes. The wildcard imo is how much of an election mess will there be and how will the markets react to that. I mean, there are plusses and minuses to either outcome market wise, but the market will not like ensuing chaos at all.
not sure I'd agree here...I think the Dems are more likely to throw money at the economy, which would help in the short term. It's the right wingers in the senate who are pushing back against more stimulus, because they don't want the deficit to grow.
I think after the election no matter who’s elected, market will go up. Market hates uncertainty more than anything. After there’s more certainty after the election, it’ll be good for the market.
Bummbull wrote:
I think after the election no matter who’s elected, market will go up. Market hates uncertainty more than anything. After there’s more certainty after the election, it’ll be good for the market.
agreed - and I think the market is deciding that biden is going to win big, and therefore bets are being placed, money is coming back onto the table. The end of uncertainty is big.
Tesla continues its march upward and is now trading above it's original price when it split.
$448 at close.
Next stop $500 -- its peak since the split.
i know what you're referring to in order of stimulus packages, but a lot of their ideas are stifling to the market, like initiating a tax on every stock transaction, raising capital gains rates, reeling in stock buybacks, etc. They are posturing with a generally more restrictive attitude towards the markets and even use it as a selling point.
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
In simplified terms, it seems the things Dems would do might hurt in the short term, but be beneficial for long term stability and growth. The Reps, the opposite.
I'm not making any changes based on expected outcomes. The wildcard imo is how much of an election mess will there be and how will the markets react to that. I mean, there are plusses and minuses to either outcome market wise, but the market will not like ensuing chaos at all.
not sure I'd agree here...I think the Dems are more likely to throw money at the economy, which would help in the short term. It's the right wingers in the senate who are pushing back against more stimulus, because they don't want the deficit to grow.
* my last post was in response to this ^^^^