Down goes the Dow

Yep, go big tech! I predict it will take off ahead of other sectors. People are looking for every opportunity.

Speaking of running I’m down to my lowest weight in a long time, have just been doing less weights and therefore eating less. Feels good, feels fast! I think I will try a road TT on a nearby verified course. Pretty sure I will be lucky to break 20–then who will be the idiot?

I’m still itching to get back into some oil, but demand projections don’t look great.

Speaking of your health, I hear infection numbers in your part of the world are way up, but deaths way down to a vanishingly low level.

George Corwin wrote:

David Wowie wrote:

I am wondering if you cannot admit your dishonesty got exposed.

I am wondering if you are brain dead.

Poor baby.

Maserati wrote:...I hear infection numbers in your part of the world are way up, but deaths way down to a vanishingly low level.

In most of Europe, cases are skyrocketing. So far, fingers crossed, deaths are much lower than in the first big peak. Vanishingly low is significantly overstating the situation though. The overall case fatality rate across Europe, based on cumulative total reported cases and deaths, is about 4.2% (it peaked over 10%), and the current rate is about 1.2%. In other words, currently there is one reported covid death for every 83 reported cases. So, low (relative to in in 8 to 10), but hardly vanishingly low...

That’s encouraging, but news is that authorities will respond to infections and begin to clamp down again, which will occasion negative economic effects. What is your sense of this?

The French winter vacation seasons are not far off, and I am here to tell you that the ski resorts make their money off foreigners, especially Brits. Already, the fashion shows and art openings that traditionally happen now and in October are essentially dead.

Not good for europe, economically.

But on the good side for me at the moment, the USD seems to be holding onto its recent gains relative to the EUR—after its prior losses, of course?.

the idiot snd Maserati,

Good run SJW/the idiot. I was in 24:00 5k shape back in March. I had lost some weight to 167lbs and motivated to do more. I had planned to go out to California to see family, and run the Carlsbad 5k. I am back up 10 lbs, so back to watching my diet more carefully.

On the markets, short of a fiscal package, I see the market struggling. Other headwinds, Covid 19 resurge, election, and no V-shaped recovery. The tech mania of this era will be impacted at a greater percentage by market cap and retail flow. I hold on to my view the NASDAQ will be the worst performer among major indices over the next couple of years. That has been the case since September 2nd.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

the idiot snd Maserati,

Good run SJW/the idiot. I was in 24:00 5k shape back in March. I had lost some weight to 167lbs and motivated to do more. I had planned to go out to California to see family, and run the Carlsbad 5k. I am back up 10 lbs, so back to watching my diet more carefully.

On the markets, short of a fiscal package, I see the market struggling. Other headwinds, Covid 19 resurge, election, and no V-shaped recovery. The tech mania of this era will be impacted at a greater percentage by market cap and retail flow. I hold on to my view the NASDAQ will be the worst performer among major indices over the next couple of years. That has been the case since September 2nd.

Igy

Are you referring to the second surge? We’ve already obviously had a V-shaped recovery from the first one.

Maserati wrote:

That’s encouraging, but news is that authorities will respond to infections and begin to clamp down again, which will occasion negative economic effects. What is your sense of this?

The French winter vacation seasons are not far off, and I am here to tell you that the ski resorts make their money off foreigners, especially Brits. Already, the fashion shows and art openings that traditionally happen now and in October are essentially dead.

Not good for europe, economically.

But on the good side for me at the moment, the USD seems to be holding onto its recent gains relative to the EUR—after its prior losses, of course?.

The point of the first shutdown, I thought, was because we weren't ready in terms of hospital beds and PPE and medical equipment. Given the WW2 style manufacturing output of that stuff recently, I think we should be able to handle a second wave much "easier" - right?

Anyways, I'm still trying to go on my WW1 Western Front vacation sometime in the future so they better figure it out over there soon. Here in the USA, we simply pretend it doesn't exist and it seems to be working wonders depending on who you ask!

Well, the NASDAQ has more in it than just mega-tech.

I see some easing of the euphoria, but IMO that will lead to M&A over the next maybe 2-3 years, which will be billed as more efficient and effective, and cause analysts to rate positively.

The big deal IMO is the election. If the D’s win, who knows what economic and monetary policy will be—and uncertainty kills. Economically I hope the R’s win, just for the sake of policy consistency. Another few years of the current course would benefit my situation.

But lol what about the idea of universal child trusts? Where do you think the gov would put that “money”? One way or another, it sounds like stimulus and direct buying will continue going forward.

But IMO market activity will depend on the election outcome.

agip wrote:

VIX up to 31. Highest reading we've seen in 5 years, other than during the 30% bear market 6 months ago.

hard to see much of a stock downside from VIX levels this high. But anything can happen.

bunch of bad news today...NKLA, no stimulus bill, SCOTUS political nightmares, rising dollar.

Love to see bonds rock steady - even up a bit. Even corporate bonds. Shows the system is holding.

Just a another day in 2020. The Nikkei has been subject to this kind of volatility for years since Japan has been shooting up on low interest rates in the gutter since the 90s

“Europe” has a lot of older people, and because of their welfare systems many of them are in state-sponsored care homes. Many have a family relative in this situation, so it is personal for many, as care home deaths rule.

Grisly as it sounds, I think the weakest have died—but people are still concerned. “Europeans” tend to worry a lot—but some places have young men to offset this effect, although they have basically no political power.

Because care homes are tied to the state, deaths there are instantly politicized—so “the covid thing” should continue to be a thing in the coming year.

Stateside we are still more independently-minded, and people seem to me to be much more inclined to do what they feel they need to do, which bodes better for economic activity.

The therapeutic response to Covid 19 has improved with experience, for example, positioning prone, quarantining long term care facilities, steroids, and monoclonal antibodies. Therefore, unlikely to overburden healthcare system in second wave. That said, there will still be long term economic consequences for weak business models where stimulus and support just lengthened the time to failure.

Igy

Maserati wrote:...news is that authorities will respond to infections and begin to clamp down again, which will occasion negative economic effects. What is your sense of this?

Border restrictions are changing frequently (weekly at least, often more frequently) in many European countries. We managed to get to Finland and Iceland early August right at "peak recovery" before the start of the "second wave" (I'll use that term loosely), and for a while you had to quarantine on return from Iceland, one of the least-hit countries in Europe. They closed the border to Finland about a week after we were there and I think it's still closed; more because of the situation here, not there (although there numbers are worsening).

I'm anxious to get back to North America, and that looks untenable without quarantine in the foreseeable future. I haven't been back "home" since March (we got back here to our current home about a day before borders slammed shut). We have a parent's funeral that's been on hold since four days after we got back here in March, which is much too long to wait.

If I were to guess what will happen in coming weeks and months over here, countries will gradually ease the criteria they use to deem other regions "red," "orange" and "yellow" as the lower fatality fates sink in. But I don't see anybody in a rush to open anything back up, and the current trend, here anyway, is a gradual reinstatement of some restrictions (smaller gather size limits for example).

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

J. Hardy wrote:

Are you referring to the second surge? We’ve already obviously had a V-shaped recovery from the first one.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-second-estimate-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter

Did you mean to post a different link, because that one had nothing to do with the question?

Idiot that’s what I’m hearing from over there, especially not being in any particular hurry to open everything completely.

As far as travel goes I could go for business, but I never go anywhere without my wife. Her acknowledgment of French citizenship is still going through, it shouldn’t be long (famous last words). Quarantines are a drag, especially as so many euro living situations are apartments. Nobody I know other than some gov personnel and one single business owner have gone to europe from the US.

The trading day has started. Come on tou bums, turn those machines back on!?

J. Hardy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-second-estimate-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter

Did you mean to post a different link, because that one had nothing to do with the question?

Sorry, I thought you were referring to the hoped for V-shaped recovery that has turned into an sleepy L.

Bounces getting weaker:

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1308409999585087491/photo/1

Yes