Down goes the Dow

Maserati wrote:

Hello one and all. I am returning to this thread for this EOY post.

I am flattered that the thread seems to have become more about me than about the markets. I haven't checked in for a long time, and am pleased that there have been posters in "my corner".

A. The thread is still mostly about investments.

B. You are flattered that people are saying negative things about you?

C. There is only one poster in "your corner". That poster has used differing aliases to obscure his true identity, but we all know who it is. You continue to misjudge the intelligence of the typical poster on this thread.

madonna mia...

Maserati wrote:

My new prediction is that not only will the DJIA get to 19k, but it will get to 20k in 2015.

Though nothing is guaranteed, that's a pretty safe bet given recent history. It would only require an 11% increase over the recent high. That's a nice increase, but not too far off the historical average.

That prediction sounds reasonable to me as well, but I wonder if things will happen in the manner in which he describes.

Maxxed out my computer RAM...oh happy day!

This guy Maserati is toying with us. With what he has written in the past, there is no way that he believes what he just posted, unless that wasn't Maserati at all. EME's are screwed with the value of the USD, and will be totally buried once interest rates start to rise, because they are almost completely debt-financed.

I'm betting that wasn't Maserati at all.

test

well regrettably maserati never put a password on his name so anyone could be posting under it.

And yet another perfect call on my part. Time to pat myself on the back.

pat, pat, pat

lol I agree, unless it was actually maser being sarcastic, hard to tell

Who knows what's going on. Dollar up, oil down, interest rates zero, stocks and housing overpriced due to cheap money, everyone except Europe printing money, government fiddling with numbers, markets down sharply today, maserati now bullish?

W

T

F

Energy stocks up... crude down... wtf?... wtf? Talk about some serious decoupling.

Many posters here are often right on technicalities, but mislead on reality.

After less than 2 hours trading on what is effectively the first real business day of 2015, dow is down 256.

I'm eagerly awaiting the miraculous turnaround that always accompanies these dips. Not to worry! buy, Buy, BUY!!!!!!!!

It's game over wrote:

Energy stocks up... crude down... wtf?... wtf? Talk about some serious decoupling.

Many posters here are often right on technicalities, but mislead on reality.

wot? it's game over AGAIN??????

Man, this game has ended more times than I can remember, but the US is only 3% off its all time high. hmmm....

indeed, many posters here are often right on technicalities but mislead on reality. You are exactly right.

holy pop tarts -

the vix is up 18% today - it's already at meaningfully high levels: 21.

the amount of fear in this market is stunning - a drop of a couple % points and fear skyrockets.

a market that so fearful probably doesn't drop much without an exogenous event.

although at some point the market won't rebound as strongly as it has in the past - but when is that point?

I chalk this little sell off to confusion about what the world will look like with cheap oil and a strong dollar. Always when things change in a big way, you are surprised by something big. And markets dont like surprises.

s m h wrote:

stocks and housing overpriced due to cheap money

Hi,

Can you explain to me how cheap money means stocks are overpriced?

Thanks.

Sinking like a brick wrote:

After less than 2 hours trading on what is effectively the first real business day of 2015, dow is down 256.

Only needs to sink another 2000 and we'll have the privilege of seeing K5 back on here posting under his own name! (much needed now with mas hiding in the shadows)

Next Stop K5 wrote:

Sinking like a brick wrote:

After less than 2 hours trading on what is effectively the first real business day of 2015, dow is down 256.

Only needs to sink another 2000 and we'll have the privilege of seeing K5 back on here posting under his own name! (much needed now with mas hiding in the shadows)

Umm...K5 predicted Dow below 13,000, so I think it needs to go down a lot more than 2,000 before he comes back to crow...and even then, it's way too late at this point. The amount of SHARES I have bought and gained since he made this prediction (started this thread) is insane. If it goes down to 13,000, I'll just continue to buy and then it will all swell back up again.

Hey Flagpole - Krugman's column today is a question I know you've thought about a lot - how much credit a president should get for good economic times. His answer is 'it depends' but thinks repubs want it both ways when they both blame obama for slow growth but don't give him credit for the current faster growth:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/opinion/paul-krugman-presidents-and-the-economy.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman

I would cut and paste but apparently the NYT figured out how to stop that.

The big boys don't use their own money to buy stocks, they borrow from banks and use bank money. The price they pay for stocks is the price of the stock plus the price of the interest on the loan. When rates are cheap, the loan doesn't cost them much, so they borrow more and spend it, increasing demand, which increased demand drives up prices.