Down goes the Dow

Hello Again wrote:

Hi K5

Nope. Fail

Logic Al wrote:

Hello Again wrote:

Hi K5

Nope. Fail

Whatever you say, K5.

Thrifty wrote:

Well, well, it looks like M hit the nail on the head, and F is now butthurt.

Condescending? Maybe. Right? Absolutely.

Sometimes, condescension is earned.

Hit what nail on the head? "Butthurt"?

Go read the stuff he writes...filled with vagueness, riddles, and pomposity. Nothing concrete, nothing helpful to an investor; just likes to tell others that what they are doing is wrong yet offers nothing better. Nothing earned by him at all...just a bunch of nonsense gobbledegook.

Too many investors and investor-wannabees put WAY too much thought and WAY too much action into investing...to their detriment. Studies continue to show that regular, unceasing investment into diversified stock-containing mutual funds that you don't sell until you retire is the best in the long haul. Want to do even a LITTLE better than that, then KNOWING that the market goes UP 73% of calendar years, if there is an extended DOWN time and you have extra money that you don't need today, then you can throw that in too, because it WILL go back up eventually.

No, really. You're a fuking idiot.

Alright guys I have a question. I want to open an IRA with Vanguard. Which do you think would be best to put my money in, a total US stock market index or a 2050 target retirement fund?

Logic Al wrote:

No, really. You're a fuking idiot.

Thanks K5. Coming from you, a compliment.

Back on April 11,2014, 8:57AM; who wrote:

BTW I agree that a crash is coming this year, and am waiting...

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=135

Time is almost up on that call.

Constantly predict market crashes or melt-ups. These things happen so you’re bound to be right once and a while. ( From Ben Carlson at A Wealth of Common Sense

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/spot-bad-forecaster/

TAA wrote:

Alright guys I have a question. I want to open an IRA with Vanguard. Which do you think would be best to put my money in, a total US stock market index or a 2050 target retirement fund?

too many unknowns - your age, your risk tolerance, your tendency to fiddle too much or not enough, your intended retirement age.

for the record, the 2050 fund is 90% stocks, so that's not a huge difference from the 100% stocks of the total us market fund.

but the 2050 fund is more diversified - it has foreign stocks.

uhh, didn't he say that the "correction" was what he thought would be a "crash", and that he didn't see the "recovery" happening so quickly?

I'm pretty sure that's what he said. He beat you to it, and at the same time acknowledged that he was wrong on the magnitude of the drop, although right on the drop itself. Why you guys continue to pile on maserati i don't knkow. You guys are constantly cherry-picking what he said to suit your purposes, like gente just did. good thing the record is there in print. the WHOLE Record. expesically Flagpole. What he said about you was probably right on the mark and though you took it as insult it wasn't intended as such, maserati said that explicity.

maserati was the only one on here who had anything interesting to say about society, national interplay, and management of the markets and teh economy. i found alot of what he said to be musings, but good musings. if what he said about beating the markets when he has gotten out was true, then your critiques of him are complete bullshiite. to critique a guy negatively who has been out according to him 3 times, and who has twice beaten and once tied the market during thsoe times, is just plain laughable, dont you see that. you are always dealing with suppositions, projections, and hypotheticals, whereas he dealt with fact. "history shows that..."...blah, blah, blah, blah...anybody with any money invested wtih anybody else knows that the FIRST thing they tell you is the caveat that ""Past history is no guarantee of future performance"". when maserati tells you what he did do, and what he is doing, all you can say is what might happen, what you believe might happen.

if there is anyone here full of shiite, it sure isn't maserati, who was actually right more than "once in a while", and admitted when he was wrong or off-base, and for srue didn't demean anybody because he even CONGRATULATED Flagpole on his gains using his system.

i wish he would come back. this thread is dead dead dead without hinm

Predicting there's going to be a drop is akin to predicting the sun will come up tomorrow.

Anyone who got out in December 2013 is not someone I want to listen to.

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

Predicting there's going to be a drop is akin to predicting the sun will come up tomorrow.

Anyone who got out in December 2013 is not someone I want to listen to.

So, you only want to listen to folks who never make mistakes? Seems like that would be pretty short list.

TAA wrote:

Alright guys I have a question. I want to open an IRA with Vanguard. Which do you think would be best to put my money in, a total US stock market index or a 2050 target retirement fund?

I'm not a fan of target funds. They are designed to get progressively more conservative as you get closer to that date, but you never know what lies ahead for you. Maybe you end up having to work 5 years longer than you had planned, and if so, your stuff has been too conservative for too long.

I also like some diversification, so I wouldn't do just a US stock market index.

You want a blend of value (dividend-giving) and growth stocks. The fine people at Vanguard can help you with that. I'm also a fan of holding at least 20% (I have about 25%) in international stocks, though my Vanguard holdings don't include that...my international stuff is all with Fidelity right now.

Some years, the international stuff does better. Some years the domestic stuff does better. Some years it's the large cap funds, other years it's the small cap funds. Hard to tell what it's going to be which is why diversification is key to steady more-predictable results.

Good luck.

Ex Officio,

You have been duped by Maserati. He is completely full of himself, his posts are filled with pomposity, the VERY FEW details he has given about what he has done are filled with missteps, and what he said about me was not even close let alone "right on the mark". I am allowed to point out his error without being "offended". Maserati doesn't have the power to offend me, because I don't respect him.

Of course he "congratulated" me. It was his condescending pat on the head kind of congratulations as in 'despite your poor way of investing Flagpole, you have made some money anyway.'

Ex Officio, pretend I said these things to you:

"You are not the hero of your own life."

"You are a passive participant on a ride you don't operate."

"You believe you have options in your life when you really do not."

"Most people have no idea what to do with freedom."

"If you were left to your own devices, you wouldn't know what to do with yourself."

"You believe you are secure, but you are anything but."

"If your strategy works out for you, it will not be the result of your initiative but of dumb luck timing."

"I am not disparaging you, but I see reality."

"The idea that you still believe in the concept of "retirement", whatever that means to you, speaks volumes."

What the hell? Pomposity at its highest! THIS is the reason that people are piling on this guy. So, he employs a different investment strategy and because of THAT he is the "hero of his own life"? What the hell does that even mean? HE knows what to do with freedom? He has options in his life but others do not? Who the hell talks like that? A pompous windbag, that's who. Unfortunately pompous windbags continue to be because they find an audience, and you, sir, are that audience (if you are not Maserati himself).

Of course I believe that the way I invest to be the safest and yet still a VERY lucrative way, but man I would never tell someone who invested differently that they didn't know what to do with freedom or that I'm not disparaging them but that I see reality. Seriously. You are giving respect to a guy who has not earned it and does not deserve it. You are wondering why people on this thread have been piling on. The reason is there in black and white my brother. Re-evaluate.

Ex Officio wrote:

no flagpole, i read your comment and then pages 200-202, and you are confused. he never said he was the hero of his own life, on p202 he described you as being the hero of your own life.

I'm pretty sure that was exactly Flagpole's point.

Ex Officio wrote:

everything he said on those apges seemede fair to me, and he went out of his way to repeat multiple times that he was not being disparaging

He repeatedly mentioned he was not being disparaging because he knew that was exactly how he sounded. There is a reason for that.

Hello one and all. I am returning to this thread for this EOY post.

I am flattered that the thread seems to have become more about me than about the markets. I haven't checked in for a long time, and am pleased that there have been posters in "my corner".

Regarding predictions, I had a good year. Yes, I have been out 3 times now, breaking even with the markets once, beating them very well one year, and beating them only by a bit this year (measured against SP500). My gain this year is realized gain, after taxes, so ultimately I did well.

Although, considering the amount of time and effort it required, in hindsight I may have preferred to have stayed in the markets instead, and just continued to do essentially nothing investment-related. Contrary to what some here seem to perceive, I have been "in" the vast majority of the time. This year was the longest absence I have ever had. The marginal benefit that I realized this year over the markets was worth it, considering that I had infinitely more control over my investments than I would have had, had I stayed in the markets. Hindsight is one thing, but degree of certainty going forward is another thing entirely.

Although I did the right thing, I did underestimate the US market gains for 2014. My projections were right on going through Q3, then Q4 exceeded all my expectations--however, I did realize that sometime back at the end of Q3 IIRC (I don't remember exactly when), and revised my projections to 18k by the EOY, and 19k not too long thereafter.

One thing I did get wrong was that there was no real "crash" in 2014. There was that tense "correction", which was rather quickly turned around. It was at that point that I realized, putting that even together with other information, that there was a ratcheting governor on the markets at this point. That was the critical event that is not likely to be repeated for at least a year going forward IMO. The effectiveness of the ratcheting governor was impressive, even though as agip has said, some hedge funds took a beating.

Buybacks continue to concern me, but dividends are looking alright. Obamacare is now essentially entrenched, FATCA is working through its pains, oil is rationalizing, and the turbulence of the elections and holidays are behind us. Winter is still here, but spring isn't too far off. The Republicans don't look like they will be doing anything to seriously rock the boat. Cromnibus is carrying the day. Most QE money didn't actually enter circulation, so the effect is less than expected--both on the good and the bad side. Gold is steady. The USD is ruling the world. Japanese elections are finished. etc.

Sure there will be droughts, food shortages, etc., but those irregularities can continue to be paved-over during the coming year.

My new prediction is that not only will the DJIA get to 19k, but it will get to 20k in 2015. Housing prices in the US will have very good gains in 2015, the best in some time. India will do very well, and is the "emerging" market to be in. Also, I think that REIT's will do well, depending on their portfolio.

In fact, if oil stays low, 2015 will be a KILLER year, unless there is US political turmoil--which I think is unlikely to happen, even if there will be difficulty with Russia. Capacity will be rebuilt in 2015, after years of penny-pinching, shaving, trimming, etc.

It will be an absolutely HUGE year. I will be in, then I will pull out again to some extent, depending on what I own and how dividends are going. The year will be so big that overheating will set in, and there will be some sort of rationalization afterward, but only after the big gain. The market may be "fully valued" at this point, but with earnings growth, there is room for price growth.

Furthermore, I think that emerging markets will also pick up after a lackluster year, as the rocketing success in the US will be contagious. Those who have money have lots of it, often more than they need. I used to be concerned about people cashing out, but those are only the chumps. People are now concerned about their estates, their grandchildren, and what kind of a legacy to leave. Trusts abound, and they are "in" whole hog, and it is much more difficult to wind up a trust than it is to establish one.

Also, 401k's and their inflexibility will act like somewhat of a buffer to market gyrations, so although there will be some swings, I see a generally smooth upward trend, unlike the wind swings some gurus are predicting.

Volatility? Not carrying the day. VIX, for instance, works on a 30-day period. This recent correction was re-corrected in that 30-day period, after which we have had some massive VIX numbers, and big swings. Some guys trade on VIX, I don't.

Finally, a word about Flagpoles. Yes, some people are thin-skinned. We are all dealt particular cards in life, and play them as we do. Flagpoles are a kind of pathetic, narrow-minded fascist who wish to project their inadequacies onto others, and who are so insecure they don't know how to take a compliment, or congratulations. I encourage nobody to be like that. Enjoy your own life, enjoy other's successes with them, be open to new ideas while respecting old ones. If you are an everyman, exalt in it, for you are the bedrock of society on which all else depends--but always remember that there are different kinds of people in the world. Be tolerant, and try to educate rather than to pontificate. Know when to cut some people and ideas off, though, because in a very real sense, life is too short. Choose carefully what fights to get into.

And, if you have found what you consider to be your hill to die on, I congratulate you, whether you fail or succeed in your endeavor.

1) INCORRECT!

2) Here's EXACTLY what Maserati said on p. 202 - "But you are fooling yourself by making yourself the hero of your own life." So, what does that even mean? It is nonsensical. He goes on to say then that he is "essentially retired" yet he still takes on clients. So, I call BS to that. You are either retired or not, and if he takes on paying clients, then he's not retired. Hell, I could take on MORE clients than I have but choose not to, and I haven't worked 40 hours in a week in 10 years (I work less than that). Does that make me "essentially retired"? NO! Why does this even matter? Because it goes to his inflated vision of himself that he has. He actually thinks of himself as retired yet he takes on paying clients. Fooling himself there, and it's indicative of the rest of the crap he has spewed. Again, who the hell says something like "The idea that you still believe in the concept of "retirement", whatever that means to you, speaks volumes." Again, the answer is a pompous windbag. Super easy to envision retirement. I am 14 months away from owning my home outright. I have ZERO other debt. I have enough in retirement TODAY where I could retire TODAY and be OK. I could stop contributing to retirement today and have way more than necessary by age 60 (more than 2 times minimum what I make currently if I take 4%, and if my stuff returns by then what it has so far, I will have more than 3 times what I currently earn if I take 4% a year). I'm continuing to work and continuing to invest, because I MIGHT retire earlier than age 60. This was all done, not with huge incomes or inherited money but through diligent and consistent investing since I was 23.

3) As I am self-employed, the 401k I have is different than the one you have, and my choices are endless anyway because at any time I could buy individual stocks or collectibles or whatever. I just choose not to. I am not locked into anything.

4) Matters not what ways he invests. Fact of the matter is that if you have invested as I have since 1989 you would be sitting VERY pretty and find it completely bogus that someone tells you that you can't possibly retire. How the hell does he know? He doesn't know how much I have or how much I will require in retirement.

5) Again, I am not insulted by Maserati. He can not insult me because I do not respect him or his opinions. If I told you how much my retirement accounts had in them today at age 48 when I am on the brink of owning my home outright and have ZERO other debt with no designs to EVER acquire more debt, neither your nor any sane person would say I won't have the ability to retire. For Maserati to say so when he has no idea how much that is is completely bogus.

6) You have fallen for a pompous windbag who hasn't given any concrete advice at all. I have no need to "lighten up". When someone is a pompous windbag and they make assumptions about someone that they can't possibly make (he doesn't have enough info to make them), then I don't have to be impressed by that, and I will call you out for wondering aloud why people are piling on this guy.

7) Finally, learn to type and learn to spell. Your arguments are greatly weakened with so many typos and misspellings. Seriously. I'm no grammar Nazi, but you sounds like a 4th grader...and a dumb one at that.

Hey maser!

welcome back - hope you stick around.

I can't write much right now but just want to say hello

Dude, do you realize that you just reinforced everything that Maserati said about you? You come off like a raving lunatic moron.

Mas, welcome back. Questions: will you be sticking to US equities, or going globally? What about the bond markets, globally? And do Russia and Brazil even matter at this point?

Maserati,

Your pomposity is unequaled.

My reaction to you has nothing to do with being thin-skinned. I am far from that. You should expect that kind of reaction when you disparage someone, especially in such a pompous way when you don't have the information needed to speak with such authority. You simply do not. You have no idea how much money I have, so you can not say with any certainty that I can or can not retire. Seriously.

How people respond to you is a direct reflection of how you respond to them, and in this way, my brother, you have failed. You are continuing to TRY to insult me by calling the "everyman" "Flagpoles". This is BS beyond belief. I am well within the top 1% of people my age when looking at the money I have invested (REGARDLESS of income!), so hardly an "everyman". FAR from that.

So, really at this point you are either just a troll or an a$$hole, and I won't continue to converse with either.

agip, I'm surprised that you engage this guy. He hasn't provided any useful information and clearly is a pompous a$$.