Down goes the Dow

I have bookmarked the Bummbell model portfolio for future reference. Chapter one is complete, eyes are sleepy. I ‘ll revisit future chapters in the days, or months ahead. I hear the last chapter is a thriller. Chilling.....

Igy, you feel like 1500 By the end of this year is in the cards, and your dignity’s redemption?

Do you still have confidence in out 12/31/2021 NASDAQ bet?

Sure took a beating last four days.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Do you still have confidence in out 12/31/2021 NASDAQ bet?

Sure took a beating last four days.

Yes I do. I may certainly be proven to be an idiot on that call. But we’ve got a long way to go between now and then. Did you by chance bookmark that exchange? I didn’t write down the specific day or index values that serve as the baseline for our double or nothing bet, and I don’t want to Welch on it when the time comes if I made the wrong call.

You didn’t answer my question?

As I have told you numerous times I have zero control over timing. That said, without Fed and Government handouts in the $Trillions you would have already lost.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As I have told you numerous times I have zero control over timing. That said, without Fed and Government handouts in the $Trillions you would have already lost.

But he did not lose. You did.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:... without Fed and Government handouts in the $Trillions you would have already lost.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I have bookmarked the Bummbell model portfolio for future reference. Chapter one is complete, eyes are sleepy. I ‘ll revisit future chapters in the days, or months ahead. I hear the last chapter is a thriller. Chilling.....

You’re too funny. Remember that I am holding plenty of bonds in my portfolio. Also, what’s going to be funny with you bookmarking is when the market spirals down sometime in the future, that’s when you’ll feel victorious. Then, realize few years later when market is way up again, I would have utilized my bonds when market was low and be just fine. Just like I was fine at end of March.

It’ll be the same story as what happened in March where you’ll be bragging about your CD performance outperforming S&P for the past five years. Then, just less than 6 months later, you will be significantly lagging.

So yes, just make sure to bookmark and await for the collapse in the market. Then you will feel like a winner, then realize few years later, you’ll be screaming sky is falling while everyone else who have kept investing and utilized the magic of asset allocation comes out prosperous.

Enjoy your CD performance! I hope you get at least 1% return!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I have bookmarked the Bummbell model portfolio for future reference. Chapter one is complete, eyes are sleepy. I ‘ll revisit future chapters in the days, or months ahead. I hear the last chapter is a thriller. Chilling.....

You, Peter Schiff, and John Hussman are so alike. I give you credit that you are a very smart guy, but you get so so so hung up in your theories and way of thinking that everything else, you're totally blind.

You understand the concept of money supply, inflation, Austrian economics theories, and financial concepts, so you think you can really really outsmart the market. However, your own brain is totally getting in the way of you making money from just understanding the concept of simple supply and demand, fear, greed, and the emotional ride of the market that you can't seem to actually capture any gains.

I'm sorry that you have to work in your 70s. I'm sorry that you have to explain to people why Cayman is better than a 911. Yes, Cayman is a better sportscar, cheaper, and not a grand tourer. But, it doesn't have the aura of 911 and never will.

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https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1303642467292581890/photo/1

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“ By and large, what is characterized as fake news is simply the news one doesn’t like or something that is misreported without actual intent; the report is simply found with error in the future. And that’s what Sven Henrich has been found with more often than not. He’s not offering fake news, just errand/wrong analysis/forecasts.”

https://www.finomgroup.com/failed-forecasts-new-forecasts-from-failed-advisors-of-sorts/

Wondering, is it 55% UPRO; 45% TQQQ to TMF or ( UPRO+TQQQ ) 55% and TMF 45%?

Also, have you looked into what happens if the bond-equity correlation goes back to +?

e.g. using 20 year zero coupon bond price as a proxy for LT Treasuries.

The last 23 years; -38.02

1961-1986; +42.27

@Barton_options posted this last week and asked "When is this going to end?"

I created a similar portfolio on Portfolio Visualizer using QQQ and VUSTX ( TLT does not go back to 2000 )

Piling up the lies. Tesla never got to 2,500 pre split. You claimed you sold at 2,200...very near the top.

The Unkle wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

I guess it doesn't matter what I say, or do. I've always on board about asset allocation where I sell my equity to rebalance with my bonds.

But who cares, it doesn't matter proving anyone right or wrong in regards to this. It doesn't really matter if I win financial argument online. All it matters is my portfolio doing the talking.

Not sure why I would lie about selling my TSLA. It looked stupid when i sold at $1,900 and it went up to $2,500. So, it's not like I would lie about that. If i'd like, I would say, I would've sold closer to $2,500. I'm not that genius. But I am smart enough to be good with my asset allocation.

Piling up the lies. Tesla never got to 2,500 pre split. You claimed you sold at 2,200...very near the top.

I never said Tesla got near 2500 pre split. I just said 2500 to not be confusing to change to post split price of almost $500.

Yea I sold around $1900 and $2200. It might not be a great choice long term as the price could keep climbing long term which I believe it will. But buying at $460, I feel pretty good to sell it. Didn’t expect for the price to climb so high so quickly so decided to sell 75% of it. Do you know how I got there? Bc I sold half at $1900 and another half at $2200.

I’m not sure why you’re accusing me of buying TSLA at relatively low price and selling at a high price. I took advantage of the low prices at end of March and beginning of April to buy stocks. It’s not rocket science. Buy low, sell high.

I wasn’t listening to Ghost of Igloi or other doom and gloomers that stocks would fall even further then to buy. I wasn’t waiting until Dow would go below 15k or 12k.

I noticed at end of March, the initial shock was over. There was no initial fear anymore. Also, prices started to not decline at a steep rate and prices would hold. Also, I got comfortable at buying at the price level where I thought it was at a value.

Stock market is just a psychological game. Take advantage when everyone is fearful. When everything is good news, start selling. It’s not about government printing money or anything like that. If that makes people lose confidence in the market, then it could affect it. But it’s just a supply and demand. I bet on america long term so buy low, sell high, and I believe it will continue to go up in the long term.

K5 is just mad because he got burned by TSLA. Like Igy, he is very resentful of investors which do better than he does. So, he’s mad at just about everyone.

Whodunit wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Add to your TSLA position on the dip.

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You guys always make these claims after the fact.

You will retract if Tesla comes back strong -- probably claiming you bought in again at its low point

Ain't this the truth. How about revealing your predictions before they occur? Please don't say you made a boatload getting out of your short positions AFTER the stock has fallen dramatically. Tell us what you are shorting and what you plan to do and WHEN you plan to get out of your position. No more after-the-fact stuff. Tell us your intentions prior to your actions.

He is unlikely to get a 1% real rate of return on his CDs. Over the last decade CDs have provided negative real rates of return in 9 or the last 10 years. Think about that. 9 of the last 10 years CDs (Igy's favorite) have real rates of return in the negative sphere.

As far as owning bonds, not sure why you are doing that. You are missing out on a lot. I can understand if you are older but I think you might be relatively young. Peter Lynch, the legendary former head of the Fidelity Magellan fund, had annual returns of 29.2% during the 13 years he ran the fund. He was perhaps the biggest proponent of shying away from bonds and only going with equities. Over the long haul, and I mean the long haul, you are losing out about 7% annually owning bonds instead of equities. And I am not saying you only are owning bonds but just owning any bonds if you are a younger guy is hurting you.

At least Bummbell didn’t go in the bunker the previous three days like crazies Detector Dude and Sally. One a certified psycho, and the other gender confused. Perhaps their therapists had them on lock down with the NASDAQ down -10%. Meds weren’t enough. Straight jackets were necessary. Rumor has it they both bought TSLA at the top.

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

At least Bummbell didn’t go in the bunker the previous three days like crazies Detector Dude and Sally. One a certified psycho, and the other gender confused. Perhaps their therapists had them on lock down with the NASDAQ down -10%. Meds weren’t enough. Straight jackets were necessary. Rumor has it they both bought TSLA at the top.

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Actually I never bought any Tesla. I was tempted to buy some CDs with your continual touting of them but thought otherwise and am happy I did. I did buy a lot of mutual funds and stock back when the Dow was at 18,500 and lookie now! It is up to 28,000. And the S & P and Nasdaq have done tremendously as well since their lows 5 months ago. I guess you and your clients missed bad on that resurgence of the market.