Down goes the Dow

It seems like there is a good chance that there could be weeks of chaos after the election with millions of mail-in ballots needing to be counted to determine a winner.

And that seems like the making of a big drop in the market.

I’m thinking of moving all my 401k into the stable fund until it’s over. Is that a stupid move?

jittery about the future wrote:

It seems like there is a good chance that there could be weeks of chaos after the election with millions of mail-in ballots needing to be counted to determine a winner.

And that seems like the making of a big drop in the market.

I’m thinking of moving all my 401k into the stable fund until it’s over. Is that a stupid move?

markets don't like surprises. I think everyone knows by now that both sides are lawyering up in expectation of multiple legal fights in many states and jurisdictions.

Usually when people know something is coming...it doesn't affect the market much.

But sure, political instability is generally *not* priced into US shares. if it is truly not clear how things will resolve, the market will likely fall.

Although keep in mind the german stock market was fine until stalingrad. Markets are not meters of current issues. They can overlook a lot.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Hey Igy did you load up on some long-dated QQQ call options? Mmmmmm , yummy—you should try some.

Have a good weekend everyone, this has been a fun ride. Hopefully when I return the week after next I will be returning to good news.

Yes I know hope is not a strategy.?

Actually sold some shorts before the close.

There's that old traders adage, gaps get filled.

That's over 20% of QQQ marketcap. Might be better to sell OTM calls; although risk-reward not as good as two days ago.

We had a sell off in early June but there is less support now.

?

Hey, maybe Masayoshi Son will keep buying those calls?

Oh, snap!

Great source!

Do you know or remember John Freis?

Here's the article on Son that Gente referred to.

I have no idea what to make of it. Can't be bullish. Unless it is.

https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2

15_50 wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I was in the first wave of skateboarding. That photo is from 1964 when I was 13. The first boards were made with steel street skates. We just nailed them to wood boards. First using them like a sled, later making them as a mini-surf board. If you hit a pebble with a steel skate you went to a dead stop. By the time of that photo we were using indoor skates which were more forgiving. Within a year or two of the photo cities were banning skateboarding on sidewalks. The sport morph to swimming pools, and more athletic moves than in my years.

Do you know or remember John Freis?

Oh yea, I know John. I went to school, or hung out with this these guys at that time. Tim Keller (above) and I were in the same grade throughout elementary to high school. John was a little younger I believe.

15_50,

What is your connection or interest to John? As for myself, I hung out with the State Beach group of surfers, and skateboarders until the end of my junior year at Pacific Palisades High School. That summer of 1967 I joined the Santa Monica Athletic Association to run under Mihaly Igloi. From that point forward I diverted my energies to track, and hung out with other runners from various schools in the area.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

15_50,

What is your connection or interest to John? As for myself, I hung out with the State Beach group of surfers, and skateboarders until the end of my junior year at Pacific Palisades High School. That summer of 1967 I joined the Santa Monica Athletic Association to run under Mihaly Igloi. From that point forward I diverted my energies to track, and hung out with other runners from various schools in the area.

Igy

I met John years ago through a business associate. Known him for a long time. He is one of my customers. He has a lot of varied business interests. An interesting character indeed... good guy. I saw your photo and figured you would know him because I have seen photos of him from the same era... and of course back then socal was the place for skating and surfing (as well as HI).

Different era. Fun times... but I expect (except for this covid period) every generation remembers their youth as fun times.

15_50,

John was a big name, along with Danny Bearer. Steve Hilton, one of the Hiltons, Paris’ father or uncle was another name. Pretty sure they were all a year or two younger, and for sure better skateboarders.

Igy

Big rally in Europa on Monday - I'd be surprised but not shocked if the downturn is over.

agip wrote:Big rally in Europa on Monday - I'd be surprised but not shocked if the downturn is over.

The "huge" dip last week actually only turned back time by two weeks, which seems fairly insignificant in the grand scheme of things.

agip wrote:

Here's the article on Son that Gente referred to.

I have no idea what to make of it. Can't be bullish. Unless it is.

https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2

Here's a good explanation by Benn Eifert, also explains sentimentrader's tweet that GoI posted.

A follow-up by spotgamma.

agip wrote:

Here's the article on Son that Gente referred to.

I have no idea what to make of it. Can't be bullish. Unless it is.

https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2

tl;dr - they bought a sh!t of calls and then banks had to cover by buying shares so they could remain essentially neutral through delta/gamma hedging.

It's almost like an anti-cornering scheme or something. Supposedly they're sitting on a fat profit from it but it's unclear if they can unwind it in time.

Bummbull wrote:

It’s good to stick with holdings that you have conviction and believe in.

Right now, will keep at 70/30 portfolio and not mess with it. Two times a year, will rebalance when I add more when I get my stock vesting from my company.

Portfolio consist of AMZN, TSLA, BND, TQQQ, UPRO and TMF. I keep 55/45 balance between UPRO/TQQQ to TMF.

My plan is to move my bonds to equity slowly when market officially goes into bear market sometime in the future. Not sure when.

Then once officially in bull market, shift back to 70/30 again and stay there.

What a difference a week makes. I wonder how that portfolio has performed?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

It’s good to stick with holdings that you have conviction and believe in.

Right now, will keep at 70/30 portfolio and not mess with it. Two times a year, will rebalance when I add more when I get my stock vesting from my company.

Portfolio consist of AMZN, TSLA, BND, TQQQ, UPRO and TMF. I keep 55/45 balance between UPRO/TQQQ to TMF.

My plan is to move my bonds to equity slowly when market officially goes into bear market sometime in the future. Not sure when.

Then once officially in bull market, shift back to 70/30 again and stay there.

What a difference a week makes. I wonder how that portfolio has performed?

No one with even half a brain would hold this sh!t for longer than 1 day except AMZN. The rest is literally memes and 3x leveraged ETFs so I suspect the guy was trolling from the get go