Down goes the Dow

Price action, that is. Watching.

agip wrote:

If this sell off, after the good economic news we've seen, is BECAUSE of the good economic news we've seen....could be that the market had been pricing in trillions of new stimulus. And now, with a million jobs being added every month...the trillions won't come. The Rs might figure that the economy is doing fine already.

could cause a reshuffle.

Market has been going up on nothing but multiple expansion.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

If this sell off, after the good economic news we've seen, is BECAUSE of the good economic news we've seen....could be that the market had been pricing in trillions of new stimulus. And now, with a million jobs being added every month...the trillions won't come. The Rs might figure that the economy is doing fine already.

could cause a reshuffle.

Market has been going up on nothing but multiple expansion.

your view is that trillions and trillions of new, unexpected government spending are completely irrelevant to corporate profits?

That doesn't seem to be a defensible position.

agip wrote:

Maserati wrote:

I’m a little pissed that gdx and gdxj are down. Sure dxy is up, but not much.

the miners are stocks and will trade like stocks...

the ETFs that track the metal itself are down just 40 bps. vs 400 bps for GDX.

I never quite understand the logic of buying the mining companies. If gold is meant to be a hedge...why buy stock in a company as a hedge?

I know they are leveraged and should rise more than gold rises but just seems to me a hedge should be a hedge.

Miners are all piled into gold and it's 1000x easier for mining companies primary operating in like Africa or some sh!t to just straight up lie about how much gold they're pulling up than it is for a bank or whoever to fudge their vault numbers since it gets federally audited like every week.

Profits tend to be consistent when you're run by the mafia and you just kill anyone who can prove otherwise

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

You mean consistent 20% gains even in the face of the most epic headwinds to ever exist? Oh no, how will I ever survive. Literally the worst future ever.

Good, you’ll get that house soon. Perhaps Martha’s Vineyard and a yacht in a decade.

:-)

Even if I did get that rich, I'd rather shoot myself than live in Martha’s Vineyard. I'm a little more imaginative than that.

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good, you’ll get that house soon. Perhaps Martha’s Vineyard and a yacht in a decade.

:-)

Even if I did get that rich, I'd rather shoot myself than live in Martha’s Vineyard. I'm a little more imaginative than that.

I grew up in Santa Monica, California when it was a sleepy coastal town of 30,000 people. Spent my childhood years at the beach. Doesn’t hold the same appeal anymore. I prefer mountains and trees.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

Even if I did get that rich, I'd rather shoot myself than live in Martha’s Vineyard. I'm a little more imaginative than that.

I grew up in Santa Monica, California when it was a sleepy coastal town of 30,000 people. Spent my childhood years at the beach. Doesn’t hold the same appeal anymore. I prefer mountains and trees.

i grew up at a beach, too, on the east coast. There isn't anyplace i would rather live than where i live now.

Price action looks like capitulation is over and traders moving in for range bound swing trading.

I tripled down on aapl at 118.

Miners are not a hedge. It is a strange, small, manipulated market—but the hope is that the big boys will pile in. Yes some miners lie about reserves and the class of reserve, but when gold goes up, whatever inventory they do have rises in value. Some have established production. It is kind of a leveraged bet on the price of gold, and fits what I am doing overall, relative to the dxy. It is still not totally correlated to the equity markets.

Earnings Growth: For Q3 2020, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -22.4%. If -22.4% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the second largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q2 2009 (-26.9%).

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I grew up in Santa Monica, California when it was a sleepy coastal town of 30,000 people. Spent my childhood years at the beach. Doesn’t hold the same appeal anymore. I prefer mountains and trees.

i grew up at a beach, too, on the east coast. There isn't anyplace i would rather live than where i live now.

Price action looks like capitulation is over and traders moving in for range bound swing trading.

You guys know the book "Barbarian Days"? It's about surfing in CA and elsewhere, before the massive growth of Los Angeles. It's not really about So Cal, but it's a great, great book and at times paints a wonderful picture of the LA area before the megagrowth and wealth.

yeeeeeahaaaaaaaw

ride 'em stock jockeys!

Looks interesting, about the time of my childhood. My middle brother was the surfer. I was into body surfing, belly board, and skateboard. He was four years older and a good surfer. I suppose I wanted to avoid a comparison. Our house was in a canyon and a short walk to the beach. Beach Boys and surfing movies were big then. My brother and his friends would repair surf board dings at our place. Fiberglass, resin, and all. One of his buddies drove an old U.S. mail truck hand painted on the side U.S. Male. They would go up an down the coast picking their surf spots. Fun time and era to grow up. The counter culture, drugs, and Viet Nam War shattered the innocence.

agip wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

i grew up at a beach, too, on the east coast. There isn't anyplace i would rather live than where i live now.

Price action looks like capitulation is over and traders moving in for range bound swing trading.

You guys know the book "Barbarian Days"? It's about surfing in CA and elsewhere, before the massive growth of Los Angeles. It's not really about So Cal, but it's a great, great book and at times paints a wonderful picture of the LA area before the megagrowth and wealth.

Igy’s first sport. I was on a skateboard team sponsored by athletic equipment maker Healthways. You can still find old barbell and dumbbells made by the company. That is me in the foreground.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

You guys know the book "Barbarian Days"? It's about surfing in CA and elsewhere, before the massive growth of Los Angeles. It's not really about So Cal, but it's a great, great book and at times paints a wonderful picture of the LA area before the megagrowth and wealth.

Igy’s first sport. I was on a skateboard team sponsored by athletic equipment maker Healthways. You can still find old barbell and dumbbells made by the company. That is me in the foreground.

https://imgur.com/a/XpaUPKo

I'll just keep going with the lit recommendations:

movie about the skateboard subculture in the 70s:

Lords of Dogtown too, but I haven't seen it.

Dog Town and Z-Boys. Love that movie! In fact, i'm fining up Alice Cooper's 'Generation Landslisde', prominently featured in the movie soundtrack, and headed out for a run.

"But I laughed to myself at the men and the ladies

Who never conceived of us billion dollar babies"

seattle prattle wrote:

Dog Town and Z-Boys. Love that movie! In fact, i'm fining up Alice Cooper's 'Generation Landslisde', prominently featured in the movie soundtrack, and headed out for a run.

"But I laughed to myself at the men and the ladies

Who never conceived of us billion dollar babies"

I was in the first wave of skateboarding. That photo is from 1964 when I was 13. The first boards were made with steel street skates. We just nailed them to wood boards. First using them like a sled, later making them as a mini-surf board. If you hit a pebble with a steel skate you went to a dead stop. By the time of that photo we were using indoor skates which were more forgiving. Within a year or two of the photo cities were banning skateboarding on sidewalks. The sport morph to swimming pools, and more athletic moves than in my years.

Here is a piece by one of my classmates from that early era. I might be in some of the photos.

http://www.timkellerphotography.com/timkellerarts/SkateboardingHistory.html

Hey Igy did you load up on some long-dated QQQ call options? Mmmmmm , yummy—you should try some.

Have a good weekend everyone, this has been a fun ride. Hopefully when I return the week after next I will be returning to good news.

Yes I know hope is not a strategy.?