JTownesEarle wrote:
SeattlePrattle, have you made any adjustments lately? Cant believe my AMZN is above 3400. I just bought some XOM at 40 today- dividend is at 8.5%.
My brother and sis-in-law keep buying XOM for my nephew. It was at 82 11 years ago and is at 40 now. I have told him for 10 years now to quit buying it. You want to MATCH the market. Oil stocks have sucked for a long time now.
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1298718738120761344Bummbull wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
So, a pig would be a bull, but definitely not a bear. And so could a hog, but just more bullish, Unlike a bear.
And a sheep can be either a bull or a bear.
Okay,
I got that, but what's up with Netflix. Surging 10% on the day.
Yea, not really sure of NFLX surge. I've sold some of my shares today. I feel good being totally out of leverage and close to 40% bond holding now. If market keeps going up, great for me. I'll capture the gains. If market goes down, great, I'll sell my bonds and buy equity.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1298718738120761344Bummbull wrote:
Yea, not really sure of NFLX surge. I've sold some of my shares today. I feel good being totally out of leverage and close to 40% bond holding now. If market keeps going up, great for me. I'll capture the gains. If market goes down, great, I'll sell my bonds and buy equity.
It was a reaction to the buy recommendation for ROKU.
Sally Vix wrote:
Besides hugely missing out on the 500% increase in the markets since 2008 and the 50% increase in the last 5 months, K5/Unkle/Igy have always been huge advocates of CDs. CDs are about the worst investment ever (besides the Hussman fund) and are even worse when you factor in inflation with the investment.
Question to K5/Igy/Unkle - are you still huge on CDs?
Here are the numbers that matter - the last 30 years of real returns (inflation-adjusted) of CDs versus the S & P...
https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-438020ebd137b884ec76b0eb4ad47cfe.pdf
K5 has to be one of the worst at investing. He states that he escaped the dotcom bubble and 2008 recession. With that alone, he should have been able to retire comfortably. But by missing out on those collapses, he also missed out on all of the gains.
JTownesEarle wrote:
SeattlePrattle, have you made any adjustments lately? Cant believe my AMZN is above 3400. I just bought some XOM at 40 today- dividend is at 8.5%.
That's an enticing dividend.
I kind of have this ethical thing about oil companies, would not be an option for me. Even sold the couple of nat. gas/distribution companies i had for a while and one of those had like a 15% dividend.
As for adjustments, been slowly adding to my 3x leveraged tech ETF and buying a little more Tesla along the way. I would have been a lot better off if i hadn't sold it during that correction about a month ago, but still can't complain.
Not ready to trim any positions quite yet. Every day i think it can't possibly go any higher... and then it does.
This market is dumb.
I missed all the gains and was in straight cash in Feb. bought a little at 2550 and sold at 2770, FML.
seattle prattle wrote:
JTownesEarle wrote:
SeattlePrattle, have you made any adjustments lately? Cant believe my AMZN is above 3400. I just bought some XOM at 40 today- dividend is at 8.5%.
That's an enticing dividend.
I kind of have this ethical thing about oil companies, would not be an option for me. Even sold the couple of nat. gas/distribution companies i had for a while and one of those had like a 15% dividend.
Man, I got some bad news for you about the energy consumption and highly unethical behavior of like 99% of those tech companies you're holding stock in.
* environmentally unfriendly. As in the planet.
Swaglord_the_real_one wrote:
This market is dumb.
I missed all the gains and was in straight cash in Feb. bought a little at 2550 and sold at 2770, FML.
Asset Allocation is the way to go. You're guaranteed to buy low and sell high with asset allocation.
Pavlovian response to buy stocks versus inconvenient facts:
1 According to the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, more than half of all the storefronts in the entire city of San Francisco are no longer in business.
#2 Just a few hours ago, New York City reported that it had an unemployment rate of almost 20 percent during the month of July.
#3 Speaking of New York, 83 percent of all restaurants in the city were unable to pay their full rent last month.
#4 In 2020, the state of Louisiana has lost twice as many jobs as it did after Hurricane Katrina. By the way, many are concerned that Hurricane Laura could soon become a similar monster storm.
#5 In the state of South Carolina, an eye-popping 52 percent of all renters “are at risk of eviction”.
#6 Americans now owe more than 21 billion dollars in unpaid rent.
#7 Overall, 27 percent of all Americans did not make their rent or mortgage payment last month.
#8 According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the delinquency rate on residential mortgages increased by 386 basis points last quarter. That was the most rapid rise that we have ever seen by a very wide margin.
#9 U.S. bankruptcies are already at their highest level in 10 years and they are expected to surge dramatically as we approach the end of this calendar year.
#10 For companies with more than 1 billion dollars in assets, it is being projected that there will be a record number of bankruptcies in 2020.
#11 World trade plunged to the “lowest levels on record” during the month of June.
#12 The percentage of hotel mortgages that are 30 or more days delinquent soared to a whopping 23.4 percent last month.
#13 American Airlines just announced that they will be eliminating 19,000 jobs next month.
#14 31 percent of U.S. workers that were brought back to work after being laid off during the early stages of this pandemic have been laid off a second time, and another 26 percent have been told that layoffs may be coming soon.
#15 According to one recent survey, about half of all U.S. workers that have been laid off during this pandemic believe that their jobs losses are permanent.
#16 The IRS is projecting that it will receive 37 million fewer W-2 forms for this year than originally anticipated.
#17 Over the last 22 weeks, more than 57 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits. In all of U.S. history, we have never seen anything that is even worth comparing to this.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Pavlovian response to buy stocks versus inconvenient facts:
1 According to the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, more than half of all the storefronts in the entire city of San Francisco are no longer in business.
#2 Just a few hours ago, New York City reported that it had an unemployment rate of almost 20 percent during the month of July.
#3 Speaking of New York, 83 percent of all restaurants in the city were unable to pay their full rent last month.
#4 In 2020, the state of Louisiana has lost twice as many jobs as it did after Hurricane Katrina. By the way, many are concerned that Hurricane Laura could soon become a similar monster storm.
#5 In the state of South Carolina, an eye-popping 52 percent of all renters “are at risk of eviction”.
#6 Americans now owe more than 21 billion dollars in unpaid rent.
#7 Overall, 27 percent of all Americans did not make their rent or mortgage payment last month.
#8 According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the delinquency rate on residential mortgages increased by 386 basis points last quarter. That was the most rapid rise that we have ever seen by a very wide margin.
#9 U.S. bankruptcies are already at their highest level in 10 years and they are expected to surge dramatically as we approach the end of this calendar year.
#10 For companies with more than 1 billion dollars in assets, it is being projected that there will be a record number of bankruptcies in 2020.
#11 World trade plunged to the “lowest levels on record” during the month of June.
#12 The percentage of hotel mortgages that are 30 or more days delinquent soared to a whopping 23.4 percent last month.
#13 American Airlines just announced that they will be eliminating 19,000 jobs next month.
#14 31 percent of U.S. workers that were brought back to work after being laid off during the early stages of this pandemic have been laid off a second time, and another 26 percent have been told that layoffs may be coming soon.
#15 According to one recent survey, about half of all U.S. workers that have been laid off during this pandemic believe that their jobs losses are permanent.
#16 The IRS is projecting that it will receive 37 million fewer W-2 forms for this year than originally anticipated.
#17 Over the last 22 weeks, more than 57 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits. In all of U.S. history, we have never seen anything that is even worth comparing to this.
Igy/K5/Unkle - can you give us just ONE example where you did right on investing? Your track record is really, really bad. You have been ripping equities for the last 10 years when they are up 500%. You were ripping equities back in March when the market tumbled 50% and now all three major indices are close to record highs. You have been a huge advocate of CDs which have had negative real returns almost every year over the last 30 years. You hero, Hussman, has perhaps the worst fund ever. Please give us some examples where what you were touting was worth anything. Thanks!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Pavlovian response to buy stocks versus inconvenient facts:
1 According to the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, more than half of all the storefronts in the entire city of San Francisco are no longer in business.
#2 Just a few hours ago, New York City reported that it had an unemployment rate of almost 20 percent during the month of July.
#3 Speaking of New York, 83 percent of all restaurants in the city were unable to pay their full rent last month.
#4 In 2020, the state of Louisiana has lost twice as many jobs as it did after Hurricane Katrina. By the way, many are concerned that Hurricane Laura could soon become a similar monster storm.
#5 In the state of South Carolina, an eye-popping 52 percent of all renters “are at risk of eviction”.
#6 Americans now owe more than 21 billion dollars in unpaid rent.
#7 Overall, 27 percent of all Americans did not make their rent or mortgage payment last month.
#8 According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the delinquency rate on residential mortgages increased by 386 basis points last quarter. That was the most rapid rise that we have ever seen by a very wide margin.
#9 U.S. bankruptcies are already at their highest level in 10 years and they are expected to surge dramatically as we approach the end of this calendar year.
#10 For companies with more than 1 billion dollars in assets, it is being projected that there will be a record number of bankruptcies in 2020.
#11 World trade plunged to the “lowest levels on record” during the month of June.
#12 The percentage of hotel mortgages that are 30 or more days delinquent soared to a whopping 23.4 percent last month.
#13 American Airlines just announced that they will be eliminating 19,000 jobs next month.
#14 31 percent of U.S. workers that were brought back to work after being laid off during the early stages of this pandemic have been laid off a second time, and another 26 percent have been told that layoffs may be coming soon.
#15 According to one recent survey, about half of all U.S. workers that have been laid off during this pandemic believe that their jobs losses are permanent.
#16 The IRS is projecting that it will receive 37 million fewer W-2 forms for this year than originally anticipated.
#17 Over the last 22 weeks, more than 57 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits. In all of U.S. history, we have never seen anything that is even worth comparing to this.
Everything you are citing is about unemployment, layoffs, evictions, etc. This thread is about smart investing. Why cloud the issue with nonsense when we want to discuss good investment advice.
Exercise your Pavlovian response Sally, eat more stocks.
I think tech will have a significant drop when majority of people start going back to the office. So, probably when there’s some type of vaccine available.
Many companies are realizing that employees are not as productive working from home long term. As well as it’s hard to train new employees and less development working from home. So, once employees start going back to work, tech companies will have significant drop where companies will start to miss their earnings and money will flow out. Also, there will be less activity from retail investors as they have to actually do more work being at the office instead of trading so that’ll slow the flow of money into tech.
So, around the time vaccine comes out, watch for a big drop. It may start before this, but there will be a huge correction then. I’m still long on tech, but expect some pain coming. I think the easy money of 3x-5x in 6 months is not gonna last forever. I definitely think this rally will continue longer though, but I’ll be cautious for this rally to continue until end of this year.
Bummbull wrote:
I think tech will have a significant drop when majority of people start going back to the office. So, probably when there’s some type of vaccine available.
Many companies are realizing that employees are not as productive working from home long term. As well as it’s hard to train new employees and less development working from home. So, once employees start going back to work, tech companies will have significant drop where companies will start to miss their earnings and money will flow out. Also, there will be less activity from retail investors as they have to actually do more work being at the office instead of trading so that’ll slow the flow of money into tech.
So, around the time vaccine comes out, watch for a big drop. It may start before this, but there will be a huge correction then. I’m still long on tech, but expect some pain coming. I think the easy money of 3x-5x in 6 months is not gonna last forever. I definitely think this rally will continue longer though, but I’ll be cautious for this rally to continue until end of this year.
or .... Vaccine early next year optomistically, a few months on top of that to get it past those who need it most and out to the rest of us, a couple of more months for it to take effect, not to mention the high probability of a double dose being necessary, and the next thing you know we are a year out before many of us are vernturing back into the office. At that point (about 1.5 years of working from home) employers gravely realize they have missed a whole cycle of necessary tech upgrades and they scramble to catch up in order to maximize efficiency and not fall behind. Big win for tech.
My gut is that tech wins either way. Tech in the home or tech in the workplace, same result. You know it's not going away.
seattle prattle wrote:My gut is that tech wins either way. Tech in the home or tech in the workplace, same result. You know it's not going away.
+1
Statistic for the statistic professional: