Down goes the Dow

Bertrand wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

17 of 18 since 5/25/2020.

Your lawn is messy, needs mowing, and fertilizer. Get to work old hippie.

Stalker.

And your count is still wrong, but it seems from reading your posts on this thread that you like being wrong.

18/19

You’re good at this. The best!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

mellon wrote:

Why don't you point out any post of me crying on here over the past 7 years. I'll only cry when a 60% drop from where the market was when you predicted it 5 years ago happens. I assume 5 years later your timeframe is still the same "SOON"

“I'll only cry when a 60% drop from where the market was when you predicted it 5 years ago happens.”

Post where I said that, or it did not happen.

Five years ago I said the next big move is down, and I was right.

I wouldn't get so hung up on trying to reason with Ghost of Igloi. As I'm pretty sure market is way up compared to 5 years ago!

Also, it's best to ignore him. If you did, you would've waited until Dow fell even more than how much it fell in March to invest. I'm just glad that I went 130% equity by very beginning of April in mostly in AMZN and TSLA. and some in NFLX, AAPL, RDFN, and PRPL. Now, i've dialed back down to 60/40 portfolio and will stay here until there's another significant drop. Then, I'll go to like 80/20 or 90/10. Back in end of March and April was once in a decade opportunity, and I'm sure glad that I didn't miss it!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1298259773142364162

um, aren't portnoy and barstool sports satire?

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1298259773142364162

um, aren't portnoy and barstool sports satire?

I don’t think Igy’s Twitter feed features any serious investment information.

Once in a decade opportunity at the highest valuation ever. OK. Current valuation, highest since 2009.

Oh, forgot,:

A) V-shaped recovery,

B) virus vaccine,

C) Fed has your back,

D) market is forward looking,

E) based on 2021 EPS,

F) All of the above.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1298259773142364162

um, aren't portnoy and barstool sports satire?

I would ask Stanley Morgan about that; he’s the sports satire guy. Remember Orchids of Asia Day Spa. Oh, and his Brady jacket.

Go Fats!

Valuation should be at its highest with all of the money feds pumping. Also, market has been trending up for the past century so not a surprise that market at some point will be at all time high.

Anyways, I definitely am concerned now compared to beginning of April. So, that’s why I went from 130% in equity down to 60/40 equity/bond.

Bummbull wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Once in a decade opportunity at the highest valuation ever. OK. Current valuation, highest since 2009.

Oh, forgot,:

A) V-shaped recovery,

B) virus vaccine,

C) Fed has your back,

D) market is forward looking,

E) based on 2021 EPS,

F) All of the above.

Valuation should be at its highest with all of the money feds pumping. Also, market has been trending up for the past century so not a surprise that market at some point will be at all time high.

Anyways, I definitely am concerned now compared to beginning of April. So, that’s why I went from 130% in equity down to 60/40 equity/bond.

Explain why the Fed pumping money should put the market at highest valuation.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

mellon wrote:

Why don't you point out any post of me crying on here over the past 7 years. I'll only cry when a 60% drop from where the market was when you predicted it 5 years ago happens. I assume 5 years later your timeframe is still the same "SOON"

“I'll only cry when a 60% drop from where the market was when you predicted it 5 years ago happens.”

Post where I said that, or it did not happen.

Five years ago I said the next big move is down, and I was right.

Igy, you’ve been calling for a 60% (or more) drop for years.

Gruntz wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“I'll only cry when a 60% drop from where the market was when you predicted it 5 years ago happens.”

Post where I said that, or it did not happen.

Five years ago I said the next big move is down, and I was right.

Igy, you’ve been calling for a 60% (or more) drop for years.

How much was that drop a short five months ago? What was the drop during the last quarter of 2018? How many $Trillions were needed to get markets to where we are today? Do you believe that debt comes without consequences? Do you believe the 28 million unemployed will be re-hired in the next year? Do you believe current EPS hovering at 2009 levels supports current valuations? Do you believe low interest rates project high growth? What are the implications of rising gold prices?

Of course all you see is the current direction of the market. You are no different than a novice Robinhood trader.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

Igy, you’ve been calling for a 60% (or more) drop for years.

How much was that drop a short five months ago? What was the drop during the last quarter of 2018? How many $Trillions were needed to get markets to where we are today? Do you believe that debt comes without consequences? Do you believe the 28 million unemployed will be re-hired in the next year? Do you believe current EPS hovering at 2009 levels supports current valuations? Do you believe low interest rates project high growth? What are the implications of rising gold prices?

Of course all you see is the current direction of the market. You are no different than a novice Robinhood trader.

I actually listen very carefully to what you say. I’ve done very well ignoring your advice.

So when is that 60% drop? I know....soon.

OK. You are dismissed to the Thoughtful Spot.

“It’s useful to remember that long-term returns represent not only trough-to-peak advances, but peak-to-trough resolutions as well. Buy-and-hold investors don’t get the trough-to-peak return. They get the full cycle return. Not surprisingly, the higher the valuation at the bull market peak, the longer the subsequent period of disappointing returns, in several instances extending more than a decade, though not without intermittent failure-prone bull market rallies to add excitement. This is what I often call ‘going nowhere in an interesting way.” I

– John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Risk Management is Generous, December 2004

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“It’s useful to remember that long-term returns represent not only trough-to-peak advances, but peak-to-trough resolutions as well. Buy-and-hold investors don’t get the trough-to-peak return. They get the full cycle return. Not surprisingly, the higher the valuation at the bull market peak, the longer the subsequent period of disappointing returns, in several instances extending more than a decade, though not without intermittent failure-prone bull market rallies to add excitement. This is what I often call ‘going nowhere in an interesting way.” I

– John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Risk Management is Generous, December 2004

This is categorically false, misleading, and representative of the weak analytical skills of this kind of biased, unrelenting negative market commentary. He says "Not surprisingly, the higher the valuation at the bull market peak, the longer the subsequent period of disappointing returns". Hypothetical, we hit an all time high say a month ago, we go down a bit and then hit a new ATH this month. There is no reason this could not go on for years in such fashion. And frankly, it has, for this generation of investors. Show me the data if what he is saying is true. Otherwise, spit this crap out all day long and some bozo on a board will regurgitate it like it actually had merit.

* It should say ' Not surprisingly, the higher the valuation at the bull market peak, the more opportunity long term investors will have to sell at a handsome profit.',

That was easy:

“At extreme valuations, it’s important to remember that the completion of a hypervalued market cycle can wipe out every bit of the stock market’s total return over-and-above T-bills, going back not just a few years, but for over a decade. Despite all the gains that the stock market enjoyed during the “tech bubble,” and during the subsequent “mortgage bubble,” the decline to the March 2009 market low erased the entire total return of the S&P 500 over-and-above T-bill returns, all the way back to May 1995. Notably, the 2009 low occurred at valuations that were only moderately below their historical norms, and still nearly twice the levels observed at deep secular lows like 1949 and 1982.“

—John Hussman