Down goes the Dow

mellon wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I wouldn’t kid myself that there is an elixir for the major hangover to come.

After a couple of years, it's nice to see some things never change.

Couple of years. Come on you were crying five months ago, and $Trillions will not stop the inevitable decline to new lows. How many people are drawing unemployment? How many businesses have failed? The Fed can buy the bonds of companies that will eventually fail, but they cannot alter the demand curve, or the bankruptcy.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

mellon wrote:

After a couple of years, it's nice to see some things never change.

Couple of years. Come on you were crying five months ago, and $Trillions will not stop the inevitable decline to new lows. How many people are drawing unemployment? How many businesses have failed? The Fed can buy the bonds of companies that will eventually fail, but they cannot alter the demand curve, or the bankruptcy.

but they also cannot alter the fact that corporate America has leaned down. GDP is likely to rise by annualized double digits for a few quarters. Run that kind of profit leverage through income statements and you get some mighty EPS gains.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:... I believe the NASDAQ Composite will underperform all major indices, and equities will bottom about 70% lower than today.

This can be our bet for the end of 2021, your chance to win back the dignity I expect to claim at the end of December if (when) SP500 closes above 1500.

Double or nothing... If NASDAQ underperforms DJIA and SP500 between today and 31 December 2021, you get back your dignity. Otherwise, I get something else equal in value. How about you give us a year (2022) of bullish posts?

Clock starts with today’s closing values...

the idiot from the ipad wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:... I believe the NASDAQ Composite will underperform all major indices, and equities will bottom about 70% lower than today.

This can be our bet for the end of 2021, your chance to win back the dignity I expect to claim at the end of December if (when) SP500 closes above 1500.

Double or nothing... If NASDAQ underperforms DJIA and SP500 between today and 31 December 2021, you get back your dignity. Otherwise, I get something else equal in value. How about you give us a year (2022) of bullish posts?

Clock starts with today’s closing values...

OK. No way will there be Bullish posts unless we hit my targets. :-)

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Couple of years. Come on you were crying five months ago, and $Trillions will not stop the inevitable decline to new lows. How many people are drawing unemployment? How many businesses have failed? The Fed can buy the bonds of companies that will eventually fail, but they cannot alter the demand curve, or the bankruptcy.

but they also cannot alter the fact that corporate America has leaned down. GDP is likely to rise by annualized double digits for a few quarters. Run that kind of profit leverage through income statements and you get some mighty EPS gains.

Even if we hit the most Bullish of 2021 year end EPS the market is still trading at a GAAP PE of 24 at 3,400. Exactly we were at the end of 2019 when the Fed had to go to liquidity injections. So not a bargain. Using current estimated 2020 GAAP EPS of $89.14 the market closed today at a 38 PE which is Tech Bubble valuations.

Good luck, market participants have had more than their share since March.

J. Hardy wrote:

systemic racism is a lie 2020 wrote:

Stock market surging due to confidence that Trump will be re-elected.

Historically the stock market performs better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones.

Looks like it is going to be tough on any President. I would like to see Biden raise corporate and individual taxes. Someone is going to have to finance the bill.

the idiot from the ipad wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:... I believe the NASDAQ Composite will underperform all major indices, and equities will bottom about 70% lower than today.

This can be our bet for the end of 2021, your chance to win back the dignity I expect to claim at the end of December if (when) SP500 closes above 1500.

Double or nothing... If NASDAQ underperforms DJIA and SP500 between today and 31 December 2021, you get back your dignity. Otherwise, I get something else equal in value. How about you give us a year (2022) of bullish posts?

Clock starts with today’s closing values...

This is the how and why I win the 2021 bet easily:

Ghost, when have you or John Hussman ever been right about anything? You both have been clamoring that the sky will fall for 10 years. Yet, just the opposite has happened. Why have you and him been wrong for 10 years now and why should we listen to you at all? Your track record is about 0-3500. As bad as it gets.

Calamity Joe wrote:

Ghost, when have you or John Hussman ever been right about anything? You both have been clamoring that the sky will fall for 10 years. Yet, just the opposite has happened. Why have you and him been wrong for 10 years now and why should we listen to you at all? Your track record is about 0-3500. As bad as it gets.

That is not true, ten years ago I was double long S&P 500 when you were huddled in tge bunker with fear. Where were you five months ago? I assume in the same position.

In regards to listening to me, I care very little. Just giving my opinion. What makes you believe today’s market is investable? Give me three just for fun.

Get some.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Calamity Joe wrote:

Ghost, when have you or John Hussman ever been right about anything? You both have been clamoring that the sky will fall for 10 years. Yet, just the opposite has happened. Why have you and him been wrong for 10 years now and why should we listen to you at all? Your track record is about 0-3500. As bad as it gets.

That is not true, ten years ago I was double long S&P 500 when you were huddled in tge bunker with fear. Where were you five months ago? I assume in the same position.

In regards to listening to me, I care very little. Just giving my opinion. What makes you believe today’s market is investable? Give me three just for fun.

Well I am not Calamity Joe. But where was I 5 months ago? Look at what I was slammed for. In March or April I was clamoring that the Dow Jones would be up around 30,000 by the end of August. Where is it now? Up close to 29,000. I said all the markets would be returning to all-time highs before long. I NAILED IT. And you and John Hussman? You FAILED IT. Please show me one instance where you said the markets would be returning to all-time highs like I did. Thanks.

You are Calamity Joe, and 28,300 is not 30,000. You failed.

Sally Vix’s future:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgNFD19XkAAZIBv?format=jpg&name=large

Have to say Sally's call was not bad.

I think he called Dow 30,000 when it was Dow 25,000.

he didn't actually prove correct, but pretty close.

agip wrote:

Have to say Sally's call was not bad.

I think he called Dow 30,000 when it was Dow 25,000.

he didn't actually prove correct, but pretty close.

Actually, I called it early in the pandemic when the Dow tanked to below 20,000, ultimately going to 18,500. Not sure when I called it but was mid-March I think.

Sally Vix wrote:

agip wrote:

Have to say Sally's call was not bad.

I think he called Dow 30,000 when it was Dow 25,000.

he didn't actually prove correct, but pretty close.

Actually, I called it early in the pandemic when the Dow tanked to below 20,000, ultimately going to 18,500. Not sure when I called it but was mid-March I think.

well maybe but this is the big thread, started by you on March 10, when the dow was between 24,000 and 25,000. Volatile day.

Maybe you made different calls at different times.