"things happen without old men in suits doing them."
Not things that affect the market like this...
...son.
All hail Maserati, I wish he were my fund manager.
"things happen without old men in suits doing them."
Not things that affect the market like this...
...son.
All hail Maserati, I wish he were my fund manager.
agip wrote:
4.5% up from the lows on Tuesday
that, mr sagarin, is why shorting is so dangerous in a liquid world, eh?
holy goats the shorts had their heads handed to them
and can you imagine the wealth destroyed in options this week? with the vix falling 32% in two days?
stunning
...and the buy and holders slept through it.
The thrills they are missing...
Seems more like wealth that was transferred than wealth destroyed.
Old Timer (ret'd) wrote:
"things happen without old men in suits doing them."
Not things that affect the market like this...
...son.
All hail Maserati, I wish he were my fund manager.
One can only hope you are joking (or are mas himself).
I'm not.
What I am, is old enough to know when to give someone his due. I would hire him as a consultant.
In fact, Maserati if you are still lurking this thread, please let us (me) know.
John
If you followed Maserati's example, then you would have missed much of the bull market.
Old Timer (ret'd) wrote:
I'm not.
What I am, is old enough to know when to give someone his due. I would hire him as a consultant.
In fact, Maserati if you are still lurking this thread, please let us (me) know.
John
That's a real shame that you are not.
As has been pointed out by another, "(maserati) predicted everything from lift off melt up to catastrophic disaster for western civilization." He'd make one helluva consultant!
If you want a good laugh, this was Goldman's position as of October:
And this is the IEA report that so riled the market, and in it you'll see why we have such a trending market and why it won't turn around too soon:
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
I have no oil stocks and no crude positions (yet). But it looks like the present trend won't turn until some time in 1H15 when some combination of increased demand and supply cutback occurs. Also, my understanding is that fracking is really high cost production, and breakeven for those guys is somewhere in the $65-80 range, so I think ultimately the demand-supply equilibrium is in that range. But over the next couple of quarters, there is a glut that won't be liquidated quickly for the reasons the IEA explains, and somewhere in this period, there will be a market clearing price.
I'm mostly a trend-follower, so I don't make or believe price predictions, but I think I see where the present move reverses with a move of $20-50 up from wherever the bottom ends up.
A single light crude futures contract is 1000 barrels, and the margin requirement is ~$4500. If you get, say, a move of $35, that's a potential profit of $35K per contract on a minimum margin of $4500. And from my perspective, that's an opportunity well worth waiting for.
If I'm right about what's really going on with price equilibrium, I wouldn't want to be owning a fracking operation, investing in same, or loaning money. I'm sure OPEC's consultants know all about the production costs, and they're not cutting back production intentionally to price those guys out of the market, and ultimately OPEC will manage the price just below what the alternative energy guys need. OPEC has been very good at this in the past. If you own a house or business in North Dakota, you might think about selling while you can.
agip wrote:
good lord I hate the conspiracy theory of stock market returns.
to believe it you have to be so convinced that a cabal of people in dark suits are pulling strings...if not literally, almost so. it's crazy and stupid.
Have you missed the rash of announcements of conspiracies to manipulate all kinds of markets in the last few years? You have to be crazy and stupid to dismiss the possibility that the stock market might be manipulated too.
agip wrote:
hey - grow up. The world is disorderly and things happen without old men in suits doing them. Deal with it.
You might need to grow up to realize that both are possible. They are not mutually exclusive.
agip wrote:
do you people so little in control of your lives that you simply MUST believe in a cabal?
Are you always so emotional and arrogant about such things? We all know your bread is buttered by keeping your clients invested, whether it's good for them or not, but you are crazy emotional about this stuff.
With so much to gain or lose, you'd have to be a fool to think that some powerful entities wouldn't want to lean on the playing board a bit to get the results they might want. There is a lot to lose in a confidence game if the players lose confidence.
not much in the mood to debate conspiracy theories. It's a binary, religious issue.
either you believe in vast sekret conspiracies or you don't.
the only thing that would change my mind is evidence. Obviously you don't have any evidence.
since I can't prove a negative, I can't change your mind
Of course the markets are manipulated. One word out of the Feds mouth, and BOOM... either up, or down. That is, at best, a quasi-market.
Duh, George. wrote:
Of course the markets are manipulated. One word out of the Feds mouth, and BOOM... either up, or down. That is, at best, a quasi-market.
Of course the markets are manipulated. One earnings report from Apple, and BOOM... either up, or down. That is, at best, a quasi-market.
Duh, Duh George wrote:
Duh, George. wrote:Of course the markets are manipulated. One word out of the Feds mouth, and BOOM... either up, or down. That is, at best, a quasi-market.
Of course the markets are manipulated. One earnings report from Apple, and BOOM... either up, or down. That is, at best, a quasi-market.
1) During low volume periods, the word from The Fed can affect it even more.
2) Yellin ALSO said this week that she believes ultimately the low oil prices to be an economic benefit.
3) When people mention The Fed affecting the market and then especially when they call it things like "quasi-market", USUALLY that means that they are trying to justify not being in it. Bottom line is that The Fed affects the market. Big deal. LOTS of things outside your control affect the market. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be in it.
Invest, invest, invest. Pay off debt. Retire with no monetary worries. It's not that hard.
LOLOLOL! Oh, I'm in on it. I view it very similarly to this -
coach d wrote:
If you want a good laugh, this was Goldman's position as of October:
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/27/kicking-oil-when-its-down-goldman-sachs-price-outlook-late-to-the-game/?__lsa=b81f-7830And this is the IEA report that so riled the market, and in it you'll see why we have such a trending market and why it won't turn around too soon:
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/I have no oil stocks and no crude positions (yet). But it looks like the present trend won't turn until some time in 1H15 when some combination of increased demand and supply cutback occurs. Also, my understanding is that fracking is really high cost production, and breakeven for those guys is somewhere in the $65-80 range, so I think ultimately the demand-supply equilibrium is in that range. But over the next couple of quarters, there is a glut that won't be liquidated quickly for the reasons the IEA explains, and somewhere in this period, there will be a market clearing price.
I'm mostly a trend-follower, so I don't make or believe price predictions, but I think I see where the present move reverses with a move of $20-50 up from wherever the bottom ends up.
A single light crude futures contract is 1000 barrels, and the margin requirement is ~$4500. If you get, say, a move of $35, that's a potential profit of $35K per contract on a minimum margin of $4500. And from my perspective, that's an opportunity well worth waiting for.
If I'm right about what's really going on with price equilibrium, I wouldn't want to be owning a fracking operation, investing in same, or loaning money. I'm sure OPEC's consultants know all about the production costs, and they're not cutting back production intentionally to price those guys out of the market, and ultimately OPEC will manage the price just below what the alternative energy guys need. OPEC has been very good at this in the past. If you own a house or business in North Dakota, you might think about selling while you can.
Good post Coach D. As agip said, the Saudis are going after frackers. Made me laugh a bit.
all time high for the US, as measured by the vanguard total stock market index VTI.
but not for the major indices.
which is strange - why is the total market fund at highs but not small caps or large caps? Maybe the etf is trading above NAV...strange.
anazing markets these two weeks - take this one and file it away under 'do not trade out of fear or greed'
Based on previous years, I think I should sit flat until the Dow reverses to 17,350 mid January, then buy like crazy and watch it fly.
Don't hold your breath.
Flagpole wrote:
Duh, Duh George wrote:Of course the markets are manipulated. One earnings report from Apple, and BOOM... either up, or down. That is, at best, a quasi-market.
1) During low volume periods, the word from The Fed can affect it even more.
2) Yellin ALSO said this week that she believes ultimately the low oil prices to be an economic benefit.
3) When people mention The Fed affecting the market and then especially when they call it things like "quasi-market", USUALLY that means that they are trying to justify not being in it. Bottom line is that The Fed affects the market. Big deal. LOTS of things outside your control affect the market. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be in it.
Invest, invest, invest. Pay off debt. Retire with no monetary worries. It's not that hard.
You don't seem to have gotten it.
Not surprised.
Duh, Duh George wrote:
Flagpole wrote:1) During low volume periods, the word from The Fed can affect it even more.
2) Yellin ALSO said this week that she believes ultimately the low oil prices to be an economic benefit.
3) When people mention The Fed affecting the market and then especially when they call it things like "quasi-market", USUALLY that means that they are trying to justify not being in it. Bottom line is that The Fed affects the market. Big deal. LOTS of things outside your control affect the market. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be in it.
Invest, invest, invest. Pay off debt. Retire with no monetary worries. It's not that hard.
You don't seem to have gotten it.
Not surprised.
Smart guys like you have been saying that to me since I started investing in 1989, and of course they (and you) don't provide any information other than to say that what I am doing is wrong. Even at the beginning of this very thread I was told by the OP to "enjoy the ride down." Well, when the hell is that going to start? The Dow has gone up since he said that, and that's been a LONG time now.
Don't get it? BS. I just received dividends this month that equal more than what many people make in a year. Glad to know I don't get it.
Flagpole wrote:
Duh, Duh George wrote:You don't seem to have gotten it.
Not surprised.
Smart guys like you have been saying that to me since I started investing in 1989, and of course they (and you) don't provide any information other than to say that what I am doing is wrong. Even at the beginning of this very thread I was told by the OP to "enjoy the ride down." Well, when the hell is that going to start? The Dow has gone up since he said that, and that's been a LONG time now.
Don't get it? BS. I just received dividends this month that equal more than what many people make in a year. Glad to know I don't get it.
Once again demonstrating that you have no idea what the point of the post was. Really, you are great for comic relief.