Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Not really, but interpret it the way you want Johnny.

I don’t want Johnny. Keep your creepy fetishes to yourself.

I agree completely and then some. NPR and PBS News Hour - Don't know where i would be without them.

As for NPR, there's more good shows on there than i can count - Ted Radio Hour, you know the list...

Lately, though, i've tuned in at nights and there's just been too many segments about the downtrodden fringes of society and it gets just unrelenting.

For the most part, though, quite an asset and one i find to be exemplary in their overall quality of their journalism and reporting.

Kind of interesting to see how things are heating up with China. It'll be interesting to see what Biden says about his "China policy" if he gets elected. I think we're no doubt headed for a new economic horizon.

Also, NYC schools will be allowed to open. Kind of interesting but considering the number of kids and parents how depend on school for food and child care I guess it's not too surprising.

My dad and I used to listen to Car Talk every Saturday morning - some great memories. People who say "NPR is just elite liberal media" is just a dead giveaway that they have in fact never listened to NPR before.

I rarely understand what mas is saying. Sorry mas...

It amuses me to know what other people think of the places I visit. Especially third hand opinions ?

Iceland IS expensive, in the same way Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries are. Don’t visit here on a thin budget... I get the impression this place would be busy with tourists in normal times. But then, most places worth visiting usually are. Seasoned travellers, like mister and missus idiot, know how to make the best of a place in spite of other tourists.

Question for Igy... our bet closes in less than five months, do you still think we’ll see a dip below 1500? I am looking forward to claiming your dignity, even if it will be retired by then. ?

the idiot wrote:Seasoned travellers, like mister and missus idiot, know how to make the best of a place in spite of other tourists.

For example, if in Paris, DO visit the Louvre, but DO NOT line up for a look at the Mona Lisa. Of all the horrible multicultural selfie-fest tourist soup experiences I’ve had, that was by far, by FAR, the absolute worst.

Paris pro tip #1.

You’re welcome! ?

Racket wrote:

Kind of interesting to see how things are heating up with China. It'll be interesting to see what Biden says about his "China policy" if he gets elected. I think we're no doubt headed for a new economic horizon.

Also, NYC schools will be allowed to open. Kind of interesting but considering the number of kids and parents how depend on school for food and child care I guess it's not too surprising.

NYC looks like they will open but Cuomo is leaving it up to the local school districts, and Blasio said already he is up for it as long as infection rates are low enough, and they currently are. Interesting that LA is not opening, though, to in-person classes (remote learning only). I guess that reflects how CA infection rates are still high and LA is one of the worst areas in the state.

Johannes wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Not really, but interpret it the way you want Johnny.

I don’t want Johnny. Keep your creepy fetishes to yourself.

More than half your posts to me. Who has the fetish? You’re the same guy, with the same chip—as big as the Grand Canyon. :-)

the idiot wrote:

Whodunit wrote:Unfortunately the aholes are running everything.

There are a$$holes everywhere, and some of them rise to the top. But there are a lot of really good people out there too, including a lot of powerful people with important responsibilities. Racket and mas are wrong to generalize about mining, although I understand where the sentiment comes from. My work exposes me to people in many different industries and business sectors. The company I work for is lucky enough to be choosy about its clients and we mostly avoid the a-holes. It’s not that hard to tell the difference between them and the genuinely good people, in my experience.

The world is run by a small handful of psychopaths. Think Sheldon Adelson, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2020 (with 89% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 83% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 64% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 83% is the final percentage, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

“Question for Igy... our bet closes in less than five months, do you still think we’ll see a dip below 1500? I am looking forward to claiming your dignity, even if it will be retired by then. ?“

the idiot,

Why would I change my mind? You should know me better than that by now. :-) As I have said to you before, the distortions in valuation make it more likely, rather than less. Of course I have no control over timing. I can just tell you what valuations predict, and I disagree that they are not predictive. Bubbles have always allowed that narrative to resurface. And this bubble, is by far the greatest, in our lifetime.

On valuation, GAAP 2020 EPS estimate is currently $92.59, then applying a 16 historical multiple gets you to $1,481.44 fair value. Using an average of Q1 GAAP actual of $11.88 and Q2 GAAP estimate of $18.18 would imply a current fair of $961.60.

Of course this number seem preposterous, but so is a market cap to GDP of 172, or GDP of -32%. At the moment investors have belief that there is free money to be had. I consider that likely to make this a very nasty bear market. The realization will hit that this thinking is, and always was misguided.

On retirement, I am weeks away. I have some client good byes to complete. Office books, certificates, degrees, photos, and trinkets to gather. Not sure if I want them in my home office. I find markets fascinating, and I plan to post well into the future. God willing.

Igy

Whodunit wrote:

the idiot wrote:

There are a$$holes everywhere, and some of them rise to the top. But there are a lot of really good people out there too, including a lot of powerful people with important responsibilities. Racket and mas are wrong to generalize about mining, although I understand where the sentiment comes from. My work exposes me to people in many different industries and business sectors. The company I work for is lucky enough to be choosy about its clients and we mostly avoid the a-holes. It’s not that hard to tell the difference between them and the genuinely good people, in my experience.

The world is run by a small handful of psychopaths. Think Sheldon Adelson, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates.

as an aside I'm half interested to know why the nuts have turned their squirrel brains to Bill Gates.

Only half interested.

Refreshing that he is replacing the usual Jewish targets of the crazies though. Only one of three on this list is Jewish - that's an improvement!

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2020 (with 89% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 83% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 64% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 83% is the final percentage, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

And now for the rest of the story:

“The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings decline for the second quarter is -33.8%, which is smaller than the earnings decline of -35.7% last week. Positive earnings surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors (led by the Health Care and Communication Services sectors) were responsible for the decrease in the overall earnings decline during the week. If -33.8% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q1 2009 (-35.4%). It will also mark the fifth time in the past six quarters in which the index has reported a year-over-year decline in earnings.”

And now you know the rest of the story.

Good day.

Racket wrote:

Kind of interesting to see how things are heating up with China. It'll be interesting to see what Biden says about his "China policy" if he gets elected. I think we're no doubt headed for a new economic horizon.

Also, NYC schools will be allowed to open. Kind of interesting but considering the number of kids and parents how depend on school for food and child care I guess it's not too surprising.

China did have to be confronted at some point...I'm not opposed to the pushback Trump started. I think Biden will have to continue the pressure at some level. China is a bad actor in bad faith and needs to shape up if it wants to be part of world leadership.

We'll see if NYC schools open or not...have the teachers unions there signed off on it? They decide policy, not politicians.

Regarding China - absolutely, and I think most experts agree. Experts also agree that Trump's plan is not only retarded, but also leads to wholly unenforceable policies and we'd be right back at square one.

As for Bill Gates - it's anti-vax stuff basically. I'm sure the Jewish Banking Cabal is somehow involved. Also lizard people.

We have a serious outbreak in Idaho. The two largest school districts are 1) postponed until mid-September, or 2) starting online later this month. The Central Health District which encompasses the Boise area is meeting next Tuesday to decide whether gyms need closure again. My experience has been that many retailers and restaurants are more lax on protocols than the YMCA I go to.

the idiot wrote:

I rarely understand what mas is saying. Sorry mas...

It amuses me to know what other people think of the places I visit. Especially third hand opinions ?

I'm not dissing your travel plans. I'm just saying Iceland's economy is mostly American tourists going for the same picture in that blue lagoon, which is actually, I believe, essentially a waste water dump. In fact, I think Iceland is that way mostly by design. They setup cheap airfare and marketed themselves as a niche and quite destination, a sort of last frontier.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

We have a serious outbreak in Idaho. The two largest school districts are 1) postponed until mid-September, or 2) starting online later this month. The Central Health District which encompasses the Boise area is meeting next Tuesday to decide whether gyms need closure again. My experience has been that many retailers and restaurants are more lax on protocols than the YMCA I go to.

Speaking of being lax on protocols, didn’t you say you violated the quarantine to get a haircut?

“On valuation, GAAP 2020 EPS estimate is currently $92.59, then applying a 16 historical multiple gets you to $1,481.44 fair value. Using an average of Q1 GAAP actual of $11.88 and Q2 GAAP estimate of $18.18 would imply a current fair of $961.60.”

The above numbers are from week ending 7/31/2020. The current numbers for week ending 8/7/2020 are decidedly worse, current quarter especially, but Q3 and Q4 estimates are also heading south. That really should be of no surprise since a V-shaped recovery is highly unlikely.

So where are we? Q2 GAAP estimated EPS marked down in one week from $18.17 to $15.09. On 6/20/2019 the estimate for non-GAAP was $45.12, now tracking -47.32% lower at $23.77. For full year 2020 GAAP EPS estimate now $87.18 marked down from last week’s $92.59, and 2019 Full Year of $139.47. The current rate of decline is mirroring the early stages of the financial crisis.

Revisiting valuation with the updated data gives you 2020 fair value estimate of 1,394.88 ($87.18 x 16 = 1,394.88). Now, with close to 90% Q2 reported gives you $26.97 in GAAP EPS at the year mid-point, or a fair value of 863.04 ($26.97 x 2 = full year equivalent GAAP EPS of $53.94 x 16 = 863.04). I suspect Q3 and Q4 will be closer to $15.00 than the current projected $28.23 and $31.98. If so, the above valuation metrics would be similar to past episodes of GAAP EPS, without and mean inversion.

Igy