Sagarin I know you see the world as more affected by central banking than I do - that's partly from my ignorance and partly from my instinctive disbelief of any sort of 'conspiracy' ideas. Not that central banks are conspiracies - I just think what they do is more transparent and less influential than you do. further down the list of economic drivers, if you will.
I should try to understand better the role of the central banks -certainly I should know more
No conspiracy here. I see central banks as creating massive dislocations and asset distortions. I don't see their policy as impacting the real, organic economy. They are not as good as they think.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=M2V
...we[ve got some bullish conditions here -
the vix is high, as discussed above, and small caps are strong. Small caps are up 0.8% while big stocks are flat or up a hair.
usually that is a sign of a bottom.
esp if it happens for more than one day.
The fact that ECONOMIC sanctions can completely destroy a country, should tell you everything you need to know about central banking power.
There is a massive currency war between the dollar and ruble taking place at this instant, and has everything to do with central bank maneuvering.
CB power wrote:
The fact that ECONOMIC sanctions can completely destroy a country, should tell you everything you need to know about central banking power.
There is a massive currency war between the dollar and ruble taking place at this instant, and has everything to do with central bank maneuvering.
um, no
let's just posit a northern country between Poland and China, and 54% of its export revenues were oil products. And that number went up to 68% if natural gas were included.
Then the price of oil fell by 40%.
What would happen to that nation's currency? You think up, down, or sideways?
anyway, the sanctions have little to do with central banks .
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17231Dow ends up closing down 112 after all the hullabalooo today. WTF is going on here? I was all hot about my small 401k going up.
Daily Moisture wrote:
Dow ends up closing down 112 after all the hullabalooo today. WTF is going on here? I was all hot about my small 401k going up.
The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat.
agip wrote:
so do you go with fundamentals or possible crises?
holy carp now we're up 230 dow points
Holy carp, indeed.
Fundamentals on asset valuations would not give one confidence... they would support the likelihood of a black swan/crisis/crash.
Don't blink or you'll miss it wrote:
agip wrote:so do you go with fundamentals or possible crises?
holy carp now we're up 230 dow points
Holy carp, indeed.
Fundamentals on asset valuations would not give one confidence... they would support the likelihood of a black swan/crisis/crash.
explain the logic underlying your conclusion
agip wrote:
...we[ve got some bullish conditions here -
....
Brilliant!
Nearly pegged the top for the day... then only crickets chirping. Dow down 111.97 for the day.
My guess: get ready for a brief Santa Claus rally to finish the year, then boom goes the dynamite as the bottom falls out of this market.
Chief Market Forecaster wrote:
agip wrote:...we[ve got some bullish conditions here -
....
Brilliant!
Nearly pegged the top for the day... then only crickets chirping. Dow down 111.97 for the day.
My guess: get ready for a brief Santa Claus rally to finish the year, then boom goes the dynamite as the bottom falls out of this market.
TO EVERYTHING YOU JUST SAID, A HEARTY +1
In Honor of wrote:
The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat.
+1
Chief Market Forecaster wrote:
agip wrote:...we[ve got some bullish conditions here -
....
Brilliant!
Nearly pegged the top for the day... then only crickets chirping. Dow down 111.97 for the day.
My guess: get ready for a brief Santa Claus rally to finish the year, then boom goes the dynamite as the bottom falls out of this market.
'nearly pegged the top for the day?"
what are you talking about? The Dow was up 200+ points at one point- that post was when the dow was flat. the market had already fallen 200 points.
but maybe you aren't that good with the subtleties of the english language.
When someoen says "some" and "usually" and "especially if this happens another day," those are called qualifiers , which are meant to moderate the statement and not make it so strong.
Here's the whole post:
"..we[ve got some bullish conditions here -
the vix is high, as discussed above, and small caps are strong. Small caps are up 0.8% while big stocks are flat or up a hair.
usually that is a sign of a bottom.
esp if it happens for more than one day."
the vix is still the highest it's been in 2 years other than October - oil and russia and the end of the year are too large for many managers to handle.
here's a little story on how to use the vix as a contrary indicator. It is just about the only thing that works, if inexactly.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/the-last-5-times-this-happened--stocks-rallied-hard-231526432.htmlincl: The CBOE Volatility Index (the “VIX”)—which is sometimes called the “fear index” because it tends to spike when the markets start to worry—is now trading above 20. While on the surface that would appear to be cause for alarm, it has in fact signaled a buying opportunity for stocks over the past year.
The last five times the VIX traded above 20, the average return on the S&P 500 one month later averaged about 5 percent.
It's a buying opportunity because we will soon see QE4.
The VIX is going nuts, and for good reason. The situation with Russia, is absolutely incredible. In my opinion, the better play than stocks, is the ruble.
This is a good read.
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2014/12/17/
It's game over wrote:
It's a buying opportunity because we will soon see QE4.
The VIX is going nuts, and for good reason. The situation with Russia, is absolutely incredible. In my opinion, the better play than stocks, is the ruble.
why is the russian situation incredible? this is what happens to countries run into the ground by terrible governance and poor economies. See Argentina, Greece, Venezuela...nothing incredible - just par for the course.
ok then
second day in a row that small caps are up more than large ones -
large: +1.2%
small: +2.4%
or thereabouts
that continues to be bullish
vix still elevated but it is down 20% or so from its peak - that is still bullish but not as much as yesterday
agip wrote:
Chief Market Forecaster wrote:Brilliant!
Nearly pegged the top for the day... then only crickets chirping. Dow down 111.97 for the day.
My guess: get ready for a brief Santa Claus rally to finish the year, then boom goes the dynamite as the bottom falls out of this market.
'nearly pegged the top for the day?"
what are you talking about? The Dow was up 200+ points at one point- that post was when the dow was flat. the market had already fallen 200 points.
but maybe you aren't that good with the subtleties of the english language.
When someoen says "some" and "usually" and "especially if this happens another day," those are called qualifiers , which are meant to moderate the statement and not make it so strong.
Hahahaha. Just because I didn't include BOTH of your posts doesn't mean you didn't nail the top. Surely you didn't forget the post less than two hours before the one you're focused on... you know, the one that said "holy carp now we're up 230 dow points..." Yes, you nailed the top. It's ok...
Ah, "qualifiers". Hahahaha. I see. So, if you were right, you can say you said it, but since you were 100% wrong, now it's "qualified". Hahahahaha.
Love the education from you on how to use something as a contrary indicator... oh the irony.
Chief Market Forecaster wrote:
agip wrote:'nearly pegged the top for the day?"
what are you talking about? The Dow was up 200+ points at one point- that post was when the dow was flat. the market had already fallen 200 points.
but maybe you aren't that good with the subtleties of the english language.
When someoen says "some" and "usually" and "especially if this happens another day," those are called qualifiers , which are meant to moderate the statement and not make it so strong.
Hahahaha. Just because I didn't include BOTH of your posts doesn't mean you didn't nail the top. Surely you didn't forget the post less than two hours before the one you're focused on... you know, the one that said "holy carp now we're up 230 dow points..." Yes, you nailed the top. It's ok...
Ah, "qualifiers". Hahahaha. I see. So, if you were right, you can say you said it, but since you were 100% wrong, now it's "qualified". Hahahahaha.
Love the education from you on how to use something as a contrary indicator... oh the irony.
Here's my post when we were up earlier - I certainly don't see anything predicting a continued rise. In fact I say the opposite - that in general the market was vulnerable to black swan moments. Really, you got nothing here. You tell me what makes this wrong in any way:
"
'll tell you - the way markets trade these days, I do expect a big down 7% day or the like - when thing start falling they get shorted til kingdom come.
I think we are in a prime black swan moment - maybe putin lashes out and does something seriously stupid, maybe iran gets some shiites in saudi to blow something big up...
but biz in the US is good.
so do you go with fundamentals or possible crises?
holy carp now we're up 230 dow points
"
Great link, thank you.
Sagarin wrote:
This is a good read.
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2014/12/17/
agip, those countries were not about to challenge the western central banks, like the BRICS is/will be doing.
You made a comment earlier about trying to further understand central banks. Hopefully, my comment will motivate you to seek this further understanding.