Randy Oldman wrote:
Junk bonds are yielding 7% average, which is less than the stock market.
y'r confusing yield with total return
the 'stock market' yields 2%, like high yield bonds yield 6%.
total return on high yield bonds over a year is 0%, total return on US stocks over a year is 13%
It's game over wrote:
The bad thing about our next war endeavor, is that it will be WW3.
This kind of stuff is not something that I enjoy typing... it is not something that I look forward to. But, for folks to honestly believe that we're trucking along in some fantastic recovery, and the future is bright as ever for the good ol' US, is mind boggling.
I understand that this all is just my perceptive opinion, but there is just too much volatility in all sectors of the planet. Something is going to give, and it will have shock waves.
Time to take your meds.
To be fair, no, I did not post three weeks ago. You are correct to call me out on that. Truthfully, I just don't have as much interest in this anymore... I get tired of people posting their returns and giving standard CNBC regurgitation. Just keep my thoughts to myself. The last time I posted here, I think I had just exited a large position in JNUG and warned others not to get on board.
But, I am telling you now I got short again a week ago. Is that really any different? Of course, I talk out of both sides of my mouth because I also own some nat gas and some small junior miners, for the time being.
Lower crude will prove a catalyst at some point, and if we get to $40ish per barrel as I suspect we will, I will likely sell puts on some crude/nat gas plays with good debt and cash management. Hopefully, I will speak up when I do. I think some of these higher-dividend plays could cut or suspend the dividend and buy stock instead.
A lot of this one-way trajectory in equities has been driven by buybacks as well, which is usually code for a lack of other good corporate investment opportunity. Even as I think we go lower, I do fear year-end, light volume window dressing...
Maybe you're right... but are you denying that the geopolitical climate around the planet, isn't incredibly volatile right now?
And don't give me some rationalized BS about, "it always is".
It's game over wrote:
Maybe you're right... but are you denying that the geopolitical climate around the planet, isn't incredibly volatile right now?
And don't give me some rationalized BS about, "it always is".
Ok, then tell us when it hasn't been.
I believe the question was posed to you... "are you denying that the geopolitical climate around the planet, isn't incredibly volatile right now"
Your enlightened answer will be appreciated.
well ok
the vix is getting high - this is getting interesting.
after a very fast climb to 22, the VIX is now higher than all but one or two corrections over the past 3 years. So this is significant panic. already.
the vix did hit 26 in the October correction.
which is amazing since stocks in the US are only down 4% or so. People are filled with terror after a tiny fall.
Probably because funds need to preserve end of year gains - many hedge funds are right on the break even line - maybe they are selling to lock in a positive number just for marketing purposes.
But yes, there are some weird things going in - oil and dollar are hard ones to figure out. It smells like panic, which is bullish of course. these sharp falls are just trading - it's the long protracted falls that kill you.
Well for now I'm going to follow the 200 day rule - if markets are more than a percent or two below the 200 day on Dec 31, I'll sell something.
...meanwhile the US economy is doing fine by most measures:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing output recorded its largest increase in nine months in November as production expanded across the board, pointing to underlying strength in the economy.
Factory production increased 1.1 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent advance in October, the Federal Reserve said on Monday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast manufacturing output rising by only 0.5 percent in November after a previously reported 0.2 percent gain in October.
wow...anyone else see the Vix flying around there?
that is the sound of hedgies shooting themselves in the foot, repeatedly. Then again in the head.
according to yahoo it has been as low as 17.77 today and as high as 25. Unbelievable.
that is hedgies trying to lock in the year and avoid giving it away at the end - so they spend millions on options and have that money evaporate in 60 minutes.
YYYEEEEEEEOOOOOOUUUUUUUUCHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!
agip wrote:
wow...anyone else see the Vix flying around there?
...
YYYEEEEEEEOOOOOOUUUUUUUUCHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!
Love your speculation... since you have all that experience from the trenches. Looks like the spike in October.
It's game over wrote:
I believe the question was posed to you... "are you denying that the geopolitical climate around the planet, isn't incredibly volatile right now"
Your enlightened answer will be appreciated.
I asked when it hasn't been. The obvious implication is that it is volatile....and usually is. What's new?
Doc Love wrote:
It's game over wrote:I believe the question was posed to you... "are you denying that the geopolitical climate around the planet, isn't incredibly volatile right now"
Your enlightened answer will be appreciated.
I asked when it hasn't been. The obvious implication is that it is volatile....and usually is. What's new?
K5 doesn't get the obvious (even when posting under an alias).
Hey, agip - you own Russia right? Because it was "so cheap"?
toloschevsky wrote:
Hey, agip - you own Russia right? Because it was "so cheap"?
I did own it - I sold it the day they invaded crimea
lost a lot
whoops
bizarre trading - the vix has rocketed back over 24, which is the highest in 2 years, save a couple days in October.
but the US market is basically flat. The vix measures fear in teh market - and we are at near 104 week high levels of fear...with the US market only down 4%.
That isn't supposed to happen. I think it is year end, it is of course russia imploding, and oil.
My money is that this is a trading spasm and not meaningful. low oil can cushion a lot of economic blows. It's like a major tax cut.
Interesting tho - some view low oil as inflationary and others view it as deflationary. I'm not sure what to think.
well as I type the vix has fallen back...interesting days.
Year end gyrations. Carry trade. Central bank shenanigans. Deleveraging. Pick a reason.
Because you will hold me to account, I covered some shorts this am and picked up some energy. But, I still think the market and oil goes lower into 2015. Disinflation/deflation.
No telling what BS the Fed spews in the coming days...
Is there a black swan flying close by?
Thank you Obama!
Sagarin wrote:
Is there a black swan flying close by?
I'll tell you - the way markets trade these days, I do expect a big down 7% day or the like - when thing start falling they get shorted til kingdom come.
I think we are in a prime black swan moment - maybe putin lashes out and does something seriously stupid, maybe iran gets some shiites in saudi to blow something big up...
but biz in the US is good.
so do you go with fundamentals or possible crises?
holy carp now we're up 230 dow points