agip wrote:
guaranteed Maser would be bearish today if he were around
Guaranteed he is still around.
agip wrote:
guaranteed Maser would be bearish today if he were around
Guaranteed he is still around.
yeeeeah, but is he buying?
lol
DJIA, July thru now looks like it could be following a nice megaphone pattern. If it continues to follow, we could drop down to around 15400-15300'ish (just eyeballing it).
DJIA has also been potentially forming a longer-term megaphone pattern all the way back to the Jan, 2000 peak. Hopefully that one doesn't play out...
QE 4 on the way, or just straight to war.
The game is over, folks.
PS... The NYT has now run a piece on the value of gold to central banks during a time of currency wars. Once again, the game is over.
It's game over wrote:
QE 4 on the way, or just straight to war.
The game is over, folks.
PS... The NYT has now run a piece on the value of gold to central banks during a time of currency wars. Once again, the game is over.
well that was easy - a 3% drop and already the 'the end is here' people have arrived
not that they ever left...
Son, your very closed mind, is quite sad.
High yield bonds have taken a massive dump, and no longer lead your beloved 'stocks'. This should be of great concern to you. But, you're a shill.
One simple point exposed agip for the all the BS he spews. I'd call that the equivalent of a 6 second knock out!
High yield bonds? What bonds are earning high yields?
Junk
Junk bonds are yielding 7% average, which is less than the stock market.
Randy Oldman wrote:
Junk bonds are yielding 7% average, which is less than the stock market.
This.
Over what time period? I'm pretty sure that in 2014, that's not the case.
High yield 'junk' bonds have provided around 6% in interest over the past year and a total return of around 0%.
Their value has fallen around 6% from their highs, but that isn't really meaningul because they continue to pay interest.
I like junk bonds a lot - you get something like 2/3 the return of the stock market but half the risk. Not a bad deal.
Default rates are something like 1 or 2%.
Not sure how important they are in teh grand scheme of things - but the have fallen a bit over the last 3 months, sure.
So?
Well, I will go on record as marking the top or the bottom. I went short about three weeks ago, doubled down a week ago. The global economy is weakening and the US is simply the best house in the worst neighborhood, which has attracted capital to the US, primarily equities, from Europe, Russia, sovereign wealth funds etc. But equities and corporate paper has been bid to ridiculous levels.
I got short primarily because sentiment was overly bullish and complacency was, well overly complacent. I agree we could see 15,000 quite easily early next year. The economy is just not very strong. Leading indicators like copper, oil (admittedly OPEC is trying to ruin higher cost US producers in the Bakken and Permian) and energy companies, yields, small caps, etc are all falling. Demand is just not that strong, especially when adjusted for the Fed's balance sheet.
The money supply has done virtually nothing, and they velocity of money is not accelerating in any meaningful way. That is a disinflation/deflationary environment. The Fed can wax poetic all they want about raising rates, and they may do one to back up their rhetoric, but they risk inverting the curve. The Euro-Zone has a very high probability of not surviving in its current form and banks are still very vulnerable.
I expect we will see the bazookas pulled out in a major way in terms of QE4 and as the war cycles ramp up. But I don't think gold is ready to take off. Looking to get short one more time and long next year possibly. Same with crude and equities.
Megaphone patterns generally workout... We will see.
damn! = It's game over = K5
Hey big guy, we need a bit more of your psychotic input here since mas has gone stealth.
HYG has led the SPX for the last five years... not even close now. The last time we saw a failure of the HYG, was, wait for it... late '08.
It's game over wrote:
HYG has led the SPX for the last five years... not even close now. The last time we saw a failure of the HYG, was, wait for it... late '08.
I'm not quite following you here - is there research that says junk bonds are reliable forward indicators of problems in the stock market?
Just eyeballing the HYG chart - it has fallen 6-8% many times in just the last 3-5 years. Why is this time different and meaningful?
Sagarin wrote:
Well, I will go on record as marking the top or the bottom. I went short about three weeks ago, doubled down a week ago. The global economy is weakening and the US is simply the best house in the worst neighborhood, which has attracted capital to the US, primarily equities, from Europe, Russia, sovereign wealth funds etc. But equities and corporate paper has been bid to ridiculous levels.
I got short primarily because sentiment was overly bullish and complacency was, well overly complacent. I agree we could see 15,000 quite easily early next year. The economy is just not very strong. Leading indicators like copper, oil (admittedly OPEC is trying to ruin higher cost US producers in the Bakken and Permian) and energy companies, yields, small caps, etc are all falling. Demand is just not that strong, especially when adjusted for the Fed's balance sheet.
The money supply has done virtually nothing, and they velocity of money is not accelerating in any meaningful way. That is a disinflation/deflationary environment. The Fed can wax poetic all they want about raising rates, and they may do one to back up their rhetoric, but they risk inverting the curve. The Euro-Zone has a very high probability of not surviving in its current form and banks are still very vulnerable.
I expect we will see the bazookas pulled out in a major way in terms of QE4 and as the war cycles ramp up. But I don't think gold is ready to take off. Looking to get short one more time and long next year possibly. Same with crude and equities.
Megaphone patterns generally workout... We will see.
Sagarin I almost trust you on these things, but did you post 3 weeks ago that you were going short? If not, why not?
It's always 'I called this one right'... after the fact.
Not just you - many people do that. bloody message boards.
Forgive me if you did post 3 weeks ago that you were going short.
Bond yields fall when bond prices rise.
The bad thing about our next war endeavor, is that it will be WW3.
This kind of stuff is not something that I enjoy typing... it is not something that I look forward to. But, for folks to honestly believe that we're trucking along in some fantastic recovery, and the future is bright as ever for the good ol' US, is mind boggling.
I understand that this all is just my perceptive opinion, but there is just too much volatility in all sectors of the planet. Something is going to give, and it will have shock waves.