California schools were 11, 15, 17. Probably didn’t deserve an at large
Glendora had a 15:27 average. They also beat an autoqualifier Menlo at Clovis. Maybe that’s why they were picked. 17th place is what Great Oak (at large team) got in 2023, and what Mountain View (at large team) got in 2022.
IMO, another possible reason why a CA team always gets picked is because the committee probably finds it unfair that the CA autoqualifying teams are determined based on the merge of the state meet races. Maybe California should do something (move some meets a week earlier) to add an NXR regional so that all of the top CA teams / individuals go head to head for NXN spots.
Truthfully I was surprised NY had their own region. Being a jumps coach I haven't paid close attention to cross-country. I am assuming it had something to do with the girls teams dominating.
I would be concerned about the number of athletes on the course. It is already very challenging with a very steep 1 mile hill. Athletes struggle to go under 16 minutes as it is. Im speculating but think it is already tough to pace the course correctly. With more runners this would be even more difficult. There are narrow patches on the course.
New York may have the same issue that California has with state meets ending late.
Are we going to rearrange other regions when they are weak? Will we rearrange a district based on this years results when next year New York may be strong? If California has a weak year will we combine them with another region?
California will probably need to have multiple weak years to start sharing a region with other states. It’s never really had a weak year, and to be honest, I don’t think it will ever have one. It’s a highly populated state.
This was a down year for boys CA teams, but still better than some other regions
Truthfully I was surprised NY had their own region. Being a jumps coach I haven't paid close attention to cross-country. I am assuming it had something to do with the girls teams dominating.
I would be concerned about the number of athletes on the course. It is already very challenging with a very steep 1 mile hill. Athletes struggle to go under 16 minutes as it is. Im speculating but think it is already tough to pace the course correctly. With more runners this would be even more difficult. There are narrow patches on the course.
New York may have the same issue that California has with state meets ending late.
Are we going to rearrange other regions when they are weak? Will we rearrange a district based on this years results when next year New York may be strong? If California has a weak year will we combine them with another region?
I know your last paragraph is hypothetical... but there's very little chance that NY's boys teams will be strong next year. Might even be worse than this year.
This year, we experienced a perfect storm of a historically weak set of teams, plus none of them running well at the Regional. If you had showed Xavier's coach their speed-ratings for NXR before the race, he probably would have shrugged his shoulders and said, "Meh. Tough race for us. 6th place." Yet, they qualified. They could well give El Paso Eastwood's team score record a scare today.
They did score more points than El Paso Eastwood 2019. They were chosen as an at large that year. According to this, they were probably chosen because they won the overall state meet merge, without going head to head against the 2 autoqualifiers there. Another thing that shows how different head to head is than the merge
I find it pretty surprising that open enrollment isn't mentioned more often regarding some of these schools in Utah and Colorado. I've heard coaches such as Dalby and Mostert speak, they seem to be phenomenal coaches and I refuse to believe for a second that they actively recruit BUT I can only imagine the powerhouse schools that would emerge if other states had the same open enrollment laws as CO and UT. I can't count how many times we've had local schools with excellent coaching and extremely strong 1-2 or 1-2-3 punches but without a 4-5. With open enrollment, those schools would rapidly turn in monsters such as Mountain Vista or American Fork. Of course, plenty of other states have their advantages; perfect weather, massive populations, affluence, ability to pull up 8th graders, but open enrollment is a massive, massive advantage.
Northeast top team in first place at the 2K had something happen to their top runner. He won the Northeast region 15:29 which means he is a 14:50 minute guy, finished in 89. If he ran 15:29 today his team would win buy 3 points and team time 32 seconds slower than region.
Also Northeast second team 8th place had a team time 5 seconds slower than the region.
If Ridgefield Northeast team 3 ran the same team time 82:59 They would be tied for 11. This is with team 12 in front of them by 1 second and team 9 by 4 seconds.
Ridgefield had two other races in November on a tough course in which their team time was significantly faster.
When Ridgefield won states the team they beat ran better than anyone in history.
They also easily won a 5 state meet before finishing 3rd in the region.
I find it pretty surprising that open enrollment isn't mentioned more often regarding some of these schools in Utah and Colorado. I've heard coaches such as Dalby and Mostert speak, they seem to be phenomenal coaches and I refuse to believe for a second that they actively recruit BUT I can only imagine the powerhouse schools that would emerge if other states had the same open enrollment laws as CO and UT. I can't count how many times we've had local schools with excellent coaching and extremely strong 1-2 or 1-2-3 punches but without a 4-5. With open enrollment, those schools would rapidly turn in monsters such as Mountain Vista or American Fork. Of course, plenty of other states have their advantages; perfect weather, massive populations, affluence, ability to pull up 8th graders, but open enrollment is a massive, massive advantage.
Phenomenal is a strong word. Dalby is not phenomenal, he is lucky. He got talent through transfers. If he were phenomenal they would have a good boys team, but their boys team is crap.
I find it pretty surprising that open enrollment isn't mentioned more often regarding some of these schools in Utah and Colorado. I've heard coaches such as Dalby and Mostert speak, they seem to be phenomenal coaches and I refuse to believe for a second that they actively recruit BUT I can only imagine the powerhouse schools that would emerge if other states had the same open enrollment laws as CO and UT. I can't count how many times we've had local schools with excellent coaching and extremely strong 1-2 or 1-2-3 punches but without a 4-5. With open enrollment, those schools would rapidly turn in monsters such as Mountain Vista or American Fork. Of course, plenty of other states have their advantages; perfect weather, massive populations, affluence, ability to pull up 8th graders, but open enrollment is a massive, massive advantage.
Phenomenal is a strong word. Dalby is not phenomenal, he is lucky. He got talent through transfers. If he were phenomenal they would have a good boys team, but their boys team is crap.
His boys had an off year. Vista boys have podiumed at NXN. They are typically in the mix at nxr. His top boy is racing footlocker next week.
Phenomenal is a strong word. Dalby is not phenomenal, he is lucky. He got talent through transfers. If he were phenomenal they would have a good boys team, but their boys team is crap.
His boys had an off year. Vista boys have podiumed at NXN. They are typically in the mix at nxr. His top boy is racing footlocker next week.
The boys team took 11th this year at NXR which was better than last year (rebuilding year) and better than expected based on what they’ve done this season. They lost 4 varsity seniors from last year and have a young team this year. They have a solid frosh/soph class and will probably get back in the mix to make NXN in 2026
State College took 8th at NXN. Ridgefield was 11 points behind them at NXR. Where would they have placed at NXN?
Carmel actually beat an at large team by 1 point. Knoxville Catholic lost to a team that ended up in 13th at NXN. But they have everyone back next year
Not an at-large... but this year's Xavier squad may be the worst boys team to ever qualify.
The worst part of this is that there were actually some pretty good teams this year. The biggest challenge facing NY is that with the traditional powerhouses out of the picture, you have a lot of teams with talented athletes, but coaches that have never experienced success before. So they peak at mid-season invitationals, crap the bed at NXR. Colonie, Ithaca, Auburn, etc. all did this. And Xavier, a very mid-pack squad but with an experienced coach, makes it to NXN.
North Rockland has decent coaching and should be good next year. But after that, wow, there is nothing.
Not an at-large... but this year's Xavier squad may be the worst boys team to ever qualify.
The worst part of this is that there were actually some pretty good teams this year. The biggest challenge facing NY is that with the traditional powerhouses out of the picture, you have a lot of teams with talented athletes, but coaches that have never experienced success before. So they peak at mid-season invitationals, crap the bed at NXR. Colonie, Ithaca, Auburn, etc. all did this. And Xavier, a very mid-pack squad but with an experienced coach, makes it to NXN.
North Rockland has decent coaching and should be good next year. But after that, wow, there is nothing.
Fairport returns the best group of speed ratings in NY especially when you add in Bubel, junior who missed the whole season due to injury. But they need to peak when it matters.
Auburn‘s varsity is mostly young with 2 low sticks coming back, but they have no depth.
Other than that, maybe some random team will come out of nowhere like Colonie did this year. I don’t think any of these teams will place at NXN
Phenomenal is a strong word. Dalby is not phenomenal, he is lucky. He got talent through transfers. If he were phenomenal they would have a good boys team, but their boys team is crap.
Just curious. Have you ever had a conversation with Dalby? With any of his athletes? Have you ever been to a coaching conference? How about one where Dalby spoke to a room full of coaches? Have you ever done research on Mountain Vista's boys team's history? Would you consider their 2024 team - probably the weakest boys team they've had in 10 years - to be 'crap' because they were only better than about 20,000 other high school teams?
California schools were 11, 15, 17. Probably didn’t deserve an at large
Should they continue to get one?
It sure doesn't feel just to get one next year after these results. But all the top teams in california are junior/sophmore heavy, so they will probably be traveling to prove them selves next year.
I find it pretty surprising that open enrollment isn't mentioned more often regarding some of these schools in Utah and Colorado. I've heard coaches such as Dalby and Mostert speak, they seem to be phenomenal coaches and I refuse to believe for a second that they actively recruit BUT I can only imagine the powerhouse schools that would emerge if other states had the same open enrollment laws as CO and UT. I can't count how many times we've had local schools with excellent coaching and extremely strong 1-2 or 1-2-3 punches but without a 4-5. With open enrollment, those schools would rapidly turn in monsters such as Mountain Vista or American Fork. Of course, plenty of other states have their advantages; perfect weather, massive populations, affluence, ability to pull up 8th graders, but open enrollment is a massive, massive advantage.
You don’t have private schools or charter schools in California? You can (and do) do the same thing. You also have the most students of any state. California has about 1,300 high schools and 1.94 million students (about 1,490 students per school average). Most of the good ones have around 2,100 students.
Utah has 168 serving 214,800 students. (about 1,280 per school). Most of the good ones have about 2,500 students.
Colorado has 522 serving 279,830 students (average 540 per school). The good ones in Colorado range from about 2,500 students for Mountain Vista and Cherry Creek to about 1,200 for Niwot and Air Academy. Niwot is super deep, but most of those kids come from the immediate area. Many are kids of ex-CU runners (Ritz, Culpepper, Robbie, etc.) and it’s not like surrounding schools are suffering (Boulder and Fairview both have top level teams as well). If you look at the boy’s state championship, Niwot gets beat 20-48 if you combine the top kids from Highland’s Ranch (Mountain Vista, Thunder Ridge and Valor Christian) onto a single team.
And some of our small schools punch well above their weight. For instance, at Desert Twilight in The Championship division for the Girls. Salida High School (a public school with a little under 400 students, absolutely everybody from within the district) finished in second behind Rio Rancho, NM (over 2,500 students), just ahead of Durango, CO (1,369 students) and Liberty, CA (1,589 students), and well ahead of Palos Verdes, CA (1,417 students). They only got 3rd at Colorado 3A state (behind Manitou (public just SW of Colorado Springs with 425 students) and The Classical Academy (public charter school just north of Colorado Springs with 547 students).
Private schools are expensive. Open enrollment is not.
Most of the teams coming from California aren’t exactly from Watts. California has many of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Now is not a time to claim poverty. And charter schools are free.
As long as CA teams perform well at the CA state team compared to historical performances, I think the committee will keep giving them the benefit of the doubt for 1 at large.
