7 are seniors. Good depth for next year. Not enough to take down CDA. It will be interesting to see how many guys run in varsity for Boise and Mountain View that would have broken that up since they are out of town with their top groups.
-
01
-
SmoothieSmoovie wrote:
7 are seniors. Good depth for next year. Not enough to take down CDA. It will be interesting to see how many guys run in varsity for Boise and Mountain View that would have broken that up since they are out of town with their top groups.
Doesn’t look like Boise or Mt View ran their top JV guys, but Timberline did and they would have broken the Rocky boys up with 3 guys in there. Top Timberline guy would have been 7th behind four seniors and two juniors. 2nd Timberline boy was one second back.
00 -
Goggins ran faster than Richardson, but I don’t think they will move Richardson down to JV since usually he scores for them.00
-
Time will tell wrote:
I’d imagine they will plan for a bit more from Lucas. Their #4 and #5 didn’t get out like their #3 did, so at NXR it is likely they make that adjustment and look for 15:00-16:00 for their 1-5 spread. Their 4/5 guys moved up a bunch so I think they are as fit as their 3. If they have Heemeyer in the mix for the win and Lucas can be solid around 15:30 with a pack near 15:55-16:05 that could give them a shot. But, I’ll echo what others have said….Jesuit, CDA, and Crater have the capability of all coming and putting 5 guys sub 16 at NXR too so it all depends on what happens Nov 11.
Gap was actually bigger at Gary Ward than at Firman between Jensen and Tuft. Tuft looks really, really good. It’s not a slight on Richardson and Jensen to say they aren’t as good as he is. It is totally realistic to say they aren’t closing that gap unless Tuft has a bad day.
10 -
I bet speed ratings (if they get done) will benchmark Tuft around 170. Lucas would be ~176, Heemeyer 184. That would put Kurtz around 163, Jensen around 163, and Jacob Thomas around 161.
20 -
justboise? wrote:
Maybe ... wrote:
The winner of Firman this year is almost guaranteed to break 15 given the talent entered... That alone will earn a 195+ speed rating. If any Idaho kids can make top 5-10, (Heemeyer for sure, Ringert and Stadtlander potentially possible) then this list will get majorly shaken up.
Herriman is probably capable of averaging in the 15:40-15:55 range, which is just absurdly fast, but they don't seem to like to lead much, so hopefully someone up front (Noonan or Heemeyer) does the work and drags everyone to fast times.
Heemeyer has to string it out if he wants to win, or even be top 5. He's not going to outkick Steadman, Jordoun, Stadtlander, and Noonan. There are surely other guys that can outkick him if the pace drags at all. If he's been missing a lot of time over the last 3 weeks, he's just not going to be sharp enough.
The big question for me is if the Idaho all-stars will collectively score lower than Herriman at Firman. Ringert was in between Herriman's 4th and 5th (their 5th ran .4 slower than him). If you think Ringert can run sub 15:30, then it stands to reason that Herriman could average in the 15:20 range given their pack and how tightly they run. The top 5 Idaho boys ran a 15:26 average last year. If Heemeyer is even slightly off, I don't think the Idaho all-stars would beat Herriman.
Idaho all-stars would have barely beat Herriman- 54-59.
Herriman averaged 15:34.1. Maybe... predicted 15:40-15:55 average for Herriman. Rocky Mountain averaged 15:48 last year. I'm guessing that they knew that before their prediction.10 -
Here’s last years Gary Ward
Lucas ran 2 seconds off Austin Clough’s time who was rated 183. Rocky ran pretty well coming off Firman. Richardson fell and puked mid race so he wasn’t where he normally is in their finish order.
Looking back through old Gary Ward’s I also saw that Slagowski ran 15:55 so it definitely isn’t a burner of a course.
10 -
Courses get rated by how fast kids run that year in addition to previous years. If a course runs way faster one year, athletes that have recorded speed scores are used as benchmarks. I doubt everyone gets a 7 point boost, especially the guys that have a bunch of scores around 163-165. They didn’t suddenly run 170-172.
Chloe Pollock didn’t suddenly run 118 when she’s been running 108s all year. All of the girls speed ratings would be massively increased as well. When both genders would see huge increases over seasonal bests across multiple teams, you can probably assume that speed scores will be more muted than last year.
00 -
Gary Ward has also varied widely in how long the grass is. Some years have seen super long grass and some are short. The competition also varies widely because it falls on the same weekend as Sunfair, Portland, etc. and in between Firman and the Boise City meet. It’s just an awkward time so you don’t see a lot of the top guys run it.
Slagowski had a lifetime best of 16:17 on the Firman course. He ran 15:56 at Caldwell. His 5k best that year was at Nike Portland, and that was a 180. Slagowski was an elite miler and a pretty good cross runner, but not nearly on the same level.
00 -
Ringert 6th at Portland and Eagles top 10 team finish.
20 -
Someone tell us about this Battle for the 509 course. CDA ran some great times, are they ready to podium at NXN or is this course super fast?
00 -
cda1 wrote:
Someone tell us about this Battle for the 509 course. CDA ran some great times, are they ready to podium at NXN or is this course super fast?
Seems to be somewhat quick, but you have to remember that these times aren't CRAZY fast. 15:00 on a quick course is about what you'd expect out of someone who got 11th at NXR NW last year and has had time to progress.
11 -
The polo fields where 509 was are very flat, but this course seemed to be a true 5k from Strava posts of competitors.
10 -
Boise dominates
00 -
drol wrote:
Boise dominates
True, but at the same time there wasn't a single solid team at that meet on the boys side.
Boise girls however look REALLY good, winning over a full(?) Jesuit team and others.
00 -
Brotha wrote:
drol wrote:
Boise dominates
True, but at the same time there wasn't a single solid team at that meet on the boys side.
Boise girls however look REALLY good, winning over a full(?) Jesuit team and others.
why doesn't cda go to any big teams? do they not want to win against auto qualifiers? are they so sure they will get top 2 at nxr west
21 -
They are at Hole in the Wall next week dude.
00 -
and which top teams are there?
01 -
Is there any legit competition at hole in the wall?
03 -
Jesuit, Bozeman, Issaquah. Not only that, but there are guys like Vincent Recupero there. If the CDA guys can pack a bunch of guys near him, it’s a good indicator their guys are legit.
00
What People Are Talking About On LetsRun
No top threads at the moment. Check back soon.