Down goes the Dow

The catch 22 is that a strong $ makes that pesky debt a booger to service.

help me understand - have there been serious financial crises caused when a reserve currency gets too strong? Or has any economically healthy country had a serious problem caused by an appreciating currency?

Serious question - my sense is that a strong is a burden for trade...but its benefits far outweigh its drawbacks.

Maybe like someone alluded - if countries have to pay back loans in expensive dollars, they will struggle.

I was talking about the phenomenon where there is only 1 reserve currency, and only essentially 1 that appreciates, and that everybody must be associated with, and 1 to which everybody must be attached, by necessity.

Remember, I'm retentive.

Appreciating currency increases the price of exports and reduces the price of imports.

Wow, did you think of that all by yourself, moron?

You're so far behind, it's not even funny.

Gill Bross wrote:

The catch 22 is that a strong $ makes that pesky debt a booger to service.

As long as interest rates stay low, it's not much of a problem.

Regarding DOW 18k, I read an article today which mentioned that many in the know think we'll see 19k by the end of 2015. It would only require 5.6% gain over the current high.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Gill Bross wrote:

The catch 22 is that a strong $ makes that pesky debt a booger to service.

As long as interest rates stay low, it's not much of a problem.

Regarding DOW 18k, I read an article today which mentioned that many in the know think we'll see 19k by the end of 2015. It would only require 5.6% gain over the current high.

in the know? really? wow - link please!

and you should cc the pulitzer committee

after this week's bloody trading sessions, I'm wishing I'd taken the K man's advice and gotten out when he made his now prophetic call so long ago. I hope he returns and rubs our noses in it.

Me too! I could use a good old fashioned "told Ya So!" right about now. :)

Haventrolled N Awhile wrote:

after this week's bloody trading sessions, I'm wishing I'd taken the K man's advice and gotten out when he made his now prophetic call so long ago. I hope he returns and rubs our noses in it.

that makes absolutely no sense.

Anyway

my fear is that the US will get whacked fast and hard like everything else - down a quick 10% in a month or 6 weeks. It seems when things start going down, they go down a whole lot and sharply.

computer trading, sure.

just hard to see the US being such an island of stability and growth in a sea of not so great. but maybe I'm wrong - the US is a special country businesswise - it does things few other countries can.

and I am 100% sure that what was driving the US up til a few days ago was money coming out of Europe and buying the US. That is fast money in two ways - when it stops coming...you lose a buyer. And those people are proven to be trigger happy - they can sell the US just as fast as they sold europe.

I saw a great quote recently - in retrospect every correction is a buying opportunity. In just doesn't seem that way in real time. the trick is to have courage that the correction that is terrifying you...is just another buying opportunity.

agip wrote:

Big Dog Investments wrote:

As long as interest rates stay low, it's not much of a problem.

Regarding DOW 18k, I read an article today which mentioned that many in the know think we'll see 19k by the end of 2015. It would only require 5.6% gain over the current high.

in the know? really? wow - link please!

and you should cc the pulitzer committee

I misspoke a bit. The article was in Kiplinger's and the 19k comment is attributed to them. But they did go on to write that "analysts" expect earnings growth of 8-10% in 2015.

"We expect broad U.S. stock market indexes to rise by high-single-digit percentages, but the advance will be more erratic than usual. That would put the Dow Jones industrial average near 19,000 and Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index in the vicinity of 2200 at their peaks, up some 9% from recent levels. ... Analysts expect earnings growth in 2015 of 8% to 10%, on average, for companies in the S&P 500."

Malone wrote:

Wow, did you think of that all by yourself, moron?

You're so far behind, it's not even funny.

No need for attitude, I was responding to a simple question/comment with a simple answer.

I can provide a more complex answer given that I majored in economics.

Dow up 1.2%, Nasdaq up 1.5%, S&P up 1.3%, K5 found hanging from a bridge.

Mas was right, it will go to 19k. Many pension funds are running up against the wall, and the PBGC doesn't want to bail them out. Their revenue projections are based on rising market assumptions, which must be met. Iwould go further than Mas to say that the markets are totally manipulated and that they have to be kept high or there will be a revolt by old people. sure there might be dips like we just saw, but by some miracle, it will recover almost immediately. i have even heard people saying that the market is fairly valued, to maybe slightly undervalued!

idk about that, but he was right that metrics and analysis change, just look at the phillips curve

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve

Thread Historian wrote:

"It's all about the US$."

Yet another thing that Maserati said explicitly and in detail, and first, and that was subsequently supported by commenters from Bloomberg and elsewhere, which articles he linked and reproduced in this thread.

Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.

Do I really need to go back and link the pages from this thread? It's about time you flatliners gave this guy his due.

It would be easier to find his wrong predictions.

Well, given the massive drop today, we will see if his prediction of a relatively quick bounce-back will be vindicated.

Technical Analysis Sucks wrote:

Well, given the massive drop today, we will see if his prediction of a relatively quick bounce-back will be vindicated.

Looks like tough sledding for your "18k by the end of the year" prediction, Mas.

guaranteed Maser would be bearish today if he were around