VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
I was looking at "buying the dip" a half hour ago when SP500 was down 3%, then looked away for work and missed the chance... :-) I have a feeling I may come to appreciate this missed "opportunity"
Sure, and i have a feeling it may be like a lot of other days in which it seems to claw it;s way back to about even on the day.
My luck at figuring out which it will be is not so good.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://thefelderreport.com/2020/06/24/the-biggest-disconnect-between-prices-and-profits-in-stock-market-history/
Igy, there's no doubt a big and probably critically unsustainable gap between corporate profits and asset prices. The question, though, is how long (and how much) the artificial Fed-propped demand will push the market forward. Time will tell (and only time...) whether it's a good idea to ride this wave. I feel like there's probably jagged rocks below the surf near the beach, but it's a glorious day for a ride. If it weren't so damned beautiful, the risk-reward trade-off wouldn't make any sense at all... :-)
I don't think I'd be wagering money I couldn't afford to lose. Not sure how other people are navigating this new world.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/982525/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economyGhost of Igloi wrote:
I guess that depends on if you believe printing money has any positive effect on the real economy beyond a few months. Obviously you think so, but I don’t.
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://thefelderreport.com/2020/06/24/the-biggest-disconnect-between-prices-and-profits-in-stock-market-history/Igy, there's no doubt a big and probably critically unsustainable gap between corporate profits and asset prices. The question, though, is how long (and how much) the artificial Fed-propped demand will push the market forward. Time will tell (and only time...) whether it's a good idea to ride this wave. I feel like there's probably jagged rocks below the surf near the beach, but it's a glorious day for a ride. If it weren't so damned beautiful, the risk-reward trade-off wouldn't make any sense at all... :-)
I don't think I'd be wagering money I couldn't afford to lose. Not sure how other people are navigating this new world.
the idiot,
The history of the market is people stay too long at the party, and have a heck of a hang over. Wall Street has everyone believing all we need to do is look to 2021 earnings. Now that is a new narrative. We’ll see if that is even a somewhat reasonable thought.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Igy, there's no doubt a big and probably critically unsustainable gap between corporate profits and asset prices. The question, though, is how long (and how much) the artificial Fed-propped demand will push the market forward. Time will tell (and only time...) whether it's a good idea to ride this wave. I feel like there's probably jagged rocks below the surf near the beach, but it's a glorious day for a ride. If it weren't so damned beautiful, the risk-reward trade-off wouldn't make any sense at all... :-)
I don't think I'd be wagering money I couldn't afford to lose. Not sure how other people are navigating this new world.
the idiot,
The history of the market is people stay too long at the party, and have a heck of a hang over. Wall Street has everyone believing all we need to do is look to 2021 earnings. Now that is a new narrative. We’ll see if that is even a somewhat reasonable thought.
Igy
Exactly who the hell has a hangover? Who?
The market has gone up for the last ten years. The market has gone up since the turn of the god damn century. The market has sustained the worst pandemic of the last 100 years.
It seems to me the only hangover is from those who missed out.
And the history of the market tells us anything except your thesis which suggests get out while the going is good.
Get real.
Sorry, i just can't listen to this hand wringing all day.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Igy, there's no doubt a big and probably critically unsustainable gap between corporate profits and asset prices. The question, though, is how long (and how much) the artificial Fed-propped demand will push the market forward. Time will tell (and only time...) whether it's a good idea to ride this wave. I feel like there's probably jagged rocks below the surf near the beach, but it's a glorious day for a ride. If it weren't so damned beautiful, the risk-reward trade-off wouldn't make any sense at all... :-)
I don't think I'd be wagering money I couldn't afford to lose. Not sure how other people are navigating this new world.
the idiot,
The history of the market is people stay too long at the party, and have a heck of a hang over. Wall Street has everyone believing all we need to do is look to 2021 earnings. Now that is a new narrative. We’ll see if that is even a somewhat reasonable thought.
Igy
Nonsense. The evidence is clear that buy-and-hold is a winning strategy. History clearly shows that the market continually sets record high after record high.
Financial Advisor wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
the idiot,
The history of the market is people stay too long at the party, and have a heck of a hang over. Wall Street has everyone believing all we need to do is look to 2021 earnings. Now that is a new narrative. We’ll see if that is even a somewhat reasonable thought.
Igy
Nonsense. The evidence is clear that buy-and-hold is a winning strategy. History clearly shows that the market continually sets record high after record high.
Oh, so Mr. Financial Advisor, how do you explain at near record highs a 20 Year S&P 500 Index return of 3.871%? Inferior to bonds actually. You’ve been spoon fed too much Wall Street baloney.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Financial Advisor wrote:
Nonsense. The evidence is clear that buy-and-hold is a winning strategy. History clearly shows that the market continually sets record high after record high.
Oh, so Mr. Financial Advisor, how do you explain at near record highs a 20 Year S&P 500 Index return of 3.871%? Inferior to bonds actually. You’ve been spoon fed too much Wall Street baloney.
I attribute that to some poor math on your part (no surprise). The S&P today 113% above where it was 20 years ago.
Annualized.....
Here you go FA, just for you. Don’t miss out:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1276204035322904578
Ah yes, you are still learning the jargon I see.
So what does this have to do with getting out too early? Do you really think it is a bad idea to double your money over time?
Financial Advisor wrote:
Ah yes, you are still learning the jargon I see.
So what does this have to do with getting out too early? Do you really think it is a bad idea to double your money over time?
You’ll learn soon enough all that you missed.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Financial Advisor wrote:
Ah yes, you are still learning the jargon I see.
So what does this have to do with getting out too early? Do you really think it is a bad idea to double your money over time?
You’ll learn soon enough all that you missed.
I didn’t think you’d be able to defend that stupid position.
Financial Advisor wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You’ll learn soon enough all that you missed.
I didn’t think you’d be able to defend that stupid position.
Nothing to defend since your doubling your money will soon be cut in half. You’re just to inexperienced to realize it, so you learn the hard way. Your problem, not mine.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Financial Advisor wrote:
I didn’t think you’d be able to defend that stupid position.
Nothing to defend since your doubling your money will soon be cut in half. You’re just to inexperienced to realize it, so you learn the hard way. Your problem, not mine.
Inexperienced? I spent decades doing this stuff. And I have enough experience to know that even cut in half I am still well ahead of where I started. And I know that it will eventually double again and then again. But you think that would be staying in too long? No wonder you are still working.
OK, you doubled your money after 20 years, bond like returns even at market highs.
That’s the only explanation I need.
We’ll talk again when your back where you were 20 years ago.
?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, you doubled your money after 20 years, bond like returns even at market highs.
That’s the only explanation I need.
We’ll talk again when your back where you were 20 years ago.
?
Again your narrow mindedness and failure do your due diligence have gotten the better of you. This is why you have not done well.
For the record, my initial investments have grown by a factor of 10. And they will continue to grow, if market history is any guide. It has little to do with bond returns.
OK, nice.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, nice.
Exactly.