Racket wrote:Here's a great, legendary guide, in pdf :
http://site.iugaza.edu.ps/wdaya/files/2013/03/A-Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street.pdfWhy don't you educate yourself and then you can talk sh!t
I happen to own that book, and it says very much the opposite of what you are tying to convince us of.
the idiot wrote:
Racket wrote:I'm sorry, am I talking to brick wall?
Did you not see the part where I literally described how GBM works and how such models are produced?
I was wondering much the same thing...
Racket, don't tell me HOW you THINK something is done (by others). SHOW me (yourself). If you're incapable of doing it yourself, show me what someone else has done, similar to the challenges I've presented.
You can talk to me all day about monte carlo simulations (I run them all the time), and blow smoke about all the fancy math terminology you like (I happen to have P=NP, which I don't happen to believe, and a reference to Fermat's last theorem tattooed on my forearm; long personal story). I know you're SMART, but are you CAPABLE of using those smarts to DO what you say is possible?
At this point I've sufficiently described the mechanics and foundations for it. All you've done is said "nuh uh" and insist it can't be done. It's clear you don't even understand what your own trivial work has produced and I seriously doubt you could possibly grasp models that are even slightly more advanced. Take a class or two and then get back to me.
Have fun with your FLT tattoo.
Anyways, someone was talking about gambling. If you want a serious gamble, check out the ridiculousness of Zoom. It has a P/E of like 1200, and if you think that's crazy, it was near 6000 just a couple of weeks ago.
Microsoft is going to crush them and I think Zoom will end up collapsing under it's own weight. Good short opportunity in my opinion, but in this goofy market who knows.
Racket wrote:At this point I've sufficiently described the mechanics and foundations for it.
We will agree to disagree. You've certainly described (often and aggressively) what you believe can be done. On that I think we can agree.
I know you don't come to be LRC to be mentored, but I'm going to try anyway. First let me recognize that you're probably a lot smarter than me, which maybe goes without saying, as I am a certified idiot, and you have a phd. When you're young (I'm assuming) and very smart (as you evidently are), there can be a tendency to assume that you're smarter or know more than those around you, since that is your normal experience in day to day life. In my own life experience (as a dumb person, let's recognize, but one who's very widely traveled), I've often been amazed to learn what other people have done or known. Anyway, the advice is to try to listen more, and insist you're right less, as the world around you (or the people in it) holds enormous potential to teach you things you don't know you don't know. I don't mean me, clearly. I have nothing to teach you, as we've plainly shown. But others will have knowledge you don't have, and some of them will share it freely.
I do wish you the best in your financial endeavours and an enjoyable career path, and I regret butting heads, it's not been especially constructive for either of us.
Cheers,
the idiot
the idiot wrote:
Racket wrote:At this point I've sufficiently described the mechanics and foundations for it.
We will agree to disagree. You've certainly described (often and aggressively) what you believe can be done. On that I think we can agree.
I know you don't come to be LRC to be mentored, but I'm going to try anyway. First let me recognize that you're probably a lot smarter than me, which maybe goes without saying, as I am a certified idiot, and you have a phd. When you're young (I'm assuming) and very smart (as you evidently are), there can be a tendency to assume that you're smarter or know more than those around you, since that is your normal experience in day to day life. In my own life experience (as a dumb person, let's recognize, but one who's very widely traveled), I've often been amazed to learn what other people have done or known. Anyway, the advice is to try to listen more, and insist you're right less, as the world around you (or the people in it) holds enormous potential to teach you things you don't know you don't know. I don't mean me, clearly. I have nothing to teach you, as we've plainly shown. But others will have knowledge you don't have, and some of them will share it freely.
I do wish you the best in your financial endeavours and an enjoyable career path, and I regret butting heads, it's not been especially constructive for either of us.
Cheers,
the idiot
Sure, I'll bury the hatchet. But first, I went to an upper tier grad school and got my @ss kicked (intellectually speaking) almost everyday. I have often said that grad school is a great time to realize you actually know very little and are hardly the smartest person in the room (contrary to what everyone thinks coming out of undergrad), so I assure you that your concerns are at least a bit unfounded. It's probably just communication through internet message boards. It's easy to get riled up or miss certain cues.
Racket wrote:
Anyways, someone was talking about gambling. If you want a serious gamble, check out the ridiculousness of Zoom. It has a P/E of like 1200, and if you think that's crazy, it was near 6000 just a couple of weeks ago.
Microsoft is going to crush them and I think Zoom will end up collapsing under it's own weight. Good short opportunity in my opinion, but in this goofy market who knows.
Also, I think FB is going to be a solid buy going into November. Ad money and traffic will start pouring in from boomers who can't wait to talk about how Joe Biden is actually Hillary Clinton post-sex change and also he/she smells like sulfer because -> literally the devil.
youse guys watching the steepening yield curve, rising value of TIPS and $36 oil?
These are signs of increasing activity around 6 months out.
And you can buy stocks with the vix at 40. Perfect timing?
Me, I'm scared down to my toes.
agip wrote:
youse guys watching the steepening yield curve, rising value of TIPS and $36 oil?
These are signs of increasing activity around 6 months out.
And you can buy stocks with the vix at 40. Perfect timing?
Me, I'm scared down to my toes.
What do you mean
agip wrote:And you can buy stocks with the vix at 40. Perfect timing?
Me, I'm scared down to my toes.
I bought stocks yesterday. I'm also scared, but I flipped a coin and it came up heads... :-)
Swaglord_the_real_one_1 wrote:
agip wrote:
youse guys watching the steepening yield curve, rising value of TIPS and $36 oil?
These are signs of increasing activity around 6 months out.
And you can buy stocks with the vix at 40. Perfect timing?
Me, I'm scared down to my toes.
What do you mean
can you be more specific?
the idiot wrote:
agip wrote:And you can buy stocks with the vix at 40. Perfect timing?
Me, I'm scared down to my toes.
I bought stocks yesterday. I'm also scared, but I flipped a coin and it came up heads... :-)
Don’t look now.....:-)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Don’t look now.....:-)
This is going to be a white knuckle ride. Remember, markets are really turbulent when you get daily fluctuations > +/- 1 to 2 %, so yesterday qualifies, and today seems to be continuing that trend...
agip wrote:
can you be more specific?
What do you mean increasing activity 6 months out?
High vix means its a good time to buy?
Great source!
agip wrote:
youse guys watching the steepening yield curve, rising value of TIPS and $36 oil?
These are signs of increasing activity around 6 months out.
And you can buy stocks with the vix at 40. Perfect timing?
Me, I'm scared down to my toes.
A lot of people are bullish I think on activity returning to normal by end of year. Oil got crushed like never before so I don't it being at $36 as an issue really. For TIPS, what do you mean by "rising?" Looks mostly flat to me
https://youtu.be/VFETrcH1Dksthe idiot wrote:
agip wrote:And you can buy stocks with the vix at 40. Perfect timing?
Me, I'm scared down to my toes.
I bought stocks yesterday. I'm also scared, but I flipped a coin and it came up heads... :-)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure, agreed. I do think rather than protesting one’s time would be better spent actually working for change. Most of these folks have never had a Black person at their dinner table, let alone work in minority communities. A lot of fake symbolism politically driven,
Actually working for change? What exactly do you think these protests are doing? There has already been policy and institutional change as a result of this. Try to keep up.
Defunding police departments, and kneeling for white guilt, while crime in liberally administered Black Communities continues unabated.
Read the memo from a Black history professor at UC-Berkley to find out what your really supporting, and it is not helping.