Down goes the Dow

Not a fan of maser, but not a fan of your last post either, agip. No confidence most likely means that he didn't think the levels would last, which they still might not--they haven't been there for very long, you know. And we have yet to see what seasonally adjusted consumer spending does before Jan 1, 2015.

Your criticism is premature. Let's see how it pans out.

Meanwhile, I feel your situation--is now the time to zig while everybody is zagging? There are good reasons for doing so, and there are good reasons for staying put, some of which maser described and that somebody else linked to at Bloomberg. I don't know, it takes courage. I am in the same position. Buffet would zig with confidence, right?

R U Guys Cereal?!? wrote:

Looks like POTO might fit the bill. He's actually talking to himself just a few posts up from here. Yikes!

Hear, hear.

Or is it 'here, here'.

Whatever. Anyone talking to himself is off to a good start!

agip wrote:

sp500 is up an amazing 13.3% since October 15

so many people sold out there - under the 200 day moving average, plunging every day.

and then whammers - 13.3% in little over a month.

Doesn't your "system" have something to do with the 200-day?

200 day MA wrote:

agip wrote:

sp500 is up an amazing 13.3% since October 15

so many people sold out there - under the 200 day moving average, plunging every day.

and then whammers - 13.3% in little over a month.

Doesn't your "system" have something to do with the 200-day?

yes, but it never quite triggered. I do a modified version of the 200 day - I use the last day of the month and give it an extra 2% of wiggle room. And I use even a little extra wiggle by being loosey goosey on whether I look at the US market or world stocks. We got real close to triggering, but by the 31 October the US (VTI) and world stocks (VT) were back above the 200 day.

nota bene - the system I use has been a failure since 2009 - nothing but false alarms.

Another record high for the DOW.

so...how contrarian are you?

energy stocks are being absolutely pummeled.

VDE - the vanguard energy ETF - is down 6% today and around 22% off its 52 week highs.

So do you buy now, in a panic situation?

Or is that trying to catch a falling knife?

relatedly, hedge funds are always heavy in energy - they must be in sheer terror right now with the year ending and their energy stocks in free fall.

Me...I'm not very contrarian. Just too hard to distinguish between a buying opportunity and a 'get out the way!' moment.

I have been reading through the last 10 pages of this thread and I miss Maserati. I notice that nobody provided CVS revenue information, he seemed like the only guy here who knew, and admitted, when he was talking bs. Also it looks like his call for significantly elevated markets by the end of 2014 will come true. I just heard on tv that in 80% of Decembers, a gain results. This guy M seemed pretty good to me, and will be super good if his prediction of gains into may/march2015 comes true.

M if you are lurking, have you gotten back in yet?

Small-time sucker wrote:

I have been reading through the last 10 pages of this thread and I miss Maserati. I notice that nobody provided CVS revenue information, he seemed like the only guy here who knew, and admitted, when he was talking bs. Also it looks like his call for significantly elevated markets by the end of 2014 will come true. I just heard on tv that in 80% of Decembers, a gain results. This guy M seemed pretty good to me, and will be super good if his prediction of gains into may/march2015 comes true.

M if you are lurking, have you gotten back in yet?

M? admitting his own BS? that's BS.

And remember he advocating selling during the October correction.

But I do miss him - what an odd, useful way of looking at the world that guy has. always interesting, even though I disagreed with most things he said.

business story of the day - I find this so amusing. I shouldn't, I know - but it just seems charming and sweet that someone, anyone, takes art and ideas so seriously:

__

Sony Pictures is investigating the possibility that a hack of the company that took place earlier this week could be the doing of North Korean hackers in an attempt to take down the company's corporate network.

North Korean hackers may have targeted the studio to damage its upcoming film "The Interview," which is a comedy film whose plot involves the assassination of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

The film, which stars Seth Rogen and James Franco, has been slammed by the North Korean government, which has threatened both the filmmakers and the U.S. government.

"There is a special irony in this storyline as it shows the desperation of the U.S. government and American society," said Kim Myong Chol, executive director of the Center for North Korean-U.S. Peace. "A film about the assassination of a foreign leader mirrors what the U.S. has done in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine. And let us not forget who killed [President John F.] Kennedy -- Americans. In fact, President [Barack] Obama should be careful in case the U.S. military wants to kill him as well."

This ^

M was the biggest hot air blowhard on this thread. He NEVER backed up anything beyond his go to; "It is getting easier and easier to ignore you" every time anyone called him out on any of his BS.

...but yes, we do need a semi-psychotic foil on this thread to keep it lively. K5, Mas...who's next?

This is what I dont' understand about theads like this one, short memory.

This is what he actually said:

"If I had bought in the last week, I would be selling right now, depending of course on what I bought." Oct 24

"Yes, I could now see the DJIA topping 18k by the end of the year, and reaching 19k in not too long," Oct 30

"This has been a good rally. I could have made twice the money I did had I waited until today to sell! It's all good, though." Oct 31

and so on. his "selling advocating" was qualified, and it looks like he made money on it, nothing wrong with that, and not the unqualified selling you suggested, and suggested after big gains, something you fail to mention. His index numbers are exactly on track so far, and the last one is an admission that he isn't perfect. There's a better one somewhere.

"In any case, I may be wrong, and may have picked a winner for the wrong reasons." Nov 4

"lol, good gain today. I could have made more than I did by holding out a few more days, but my key is that I'm not greedy. I know how much I need to make, and if I make it, I'm out. Good for others, though, who have different strategies." Oct 30

Heck, on Oct 16, he even defended agip and his ilk, who I think are personally useless parasites.

I want to see M back, plain and simple, he and agip are the only ones on this board with anything interesting to say. or were, that is

Maser swayed with the markets, but his overall view was 'it's all a house of cards - make money now and then get out'

here, from 3/31/14, saying that the market would not return anything in 2014: (page 130)

"But ultimately, I think there will be market problems this year, and that the Dow will show no gains at all. So far now, 3 months into the year, the DJIA is down .82%, even with the 115-point rally early this morning. As far as the DJIA goes, I have missed out on nothing except possibly some dividends.

As far as the next 3 or 6 months go, I think there will be some good trading opportunities, but as far as investment goes, I see no particular reason to buy within that period."

___

why did he think the market would return nothing? Because it HAD returned nothing to the exact point where he wrote that. (by the Dow, anyway).

But then when the market sold off in October, he said sell. Then when it rebounded, he said buy. As you point out above.

Momentum is a valid investing strategy, but I don't think he saw his method as momentum. he prob saw it as pure realism.

__

so on 3/31 he said the Dow would not return anything for the year. well now it's up 9.4% and the SP 500 is up 13.1%. Not a great prediction,that.

he could still be proven right - we have 4 weeks left.

But he just moved with the tide, that's all. with a long term bearish view. That's hardly a market commentary worth heeding when the guy changed his mind to go with the flow.

He was interesting in is views of using other ways to invest, away from the stock and bond and cash markets. And his internationalist knowledge. And he was a good debater. Clearly a smart guy I wish would return.

maybe I don't have the timing quite right, but I think my point stands.

lol agip, you're right, your timing isn't right, plus in hindsight he was right on about the 3 to 6 months after March 2014 not being a good buying opportunity, actually exactly right on! wow relative to october, i mean

I bet that b@stard has money. Wish I knew who he was. Or is.

plus note that he was talking about investments, versus things you trade

all greek to me, but i assume there is a difference

Wish I had more money wrote:

lol agip, you're right, your timing isn't right, plus in hindsight he was right on about the 3 to 6 months after March 2014 not being a good buying opportunity, actually exactly right on! wow relative to october, i mean

I bet that b@stard has money. Wish I knew who he was. Or is.

huh? he said the market would return nothing ni 2014...but it has actually returned 9-13%. So buying at ANY time during those 3-6 months after 3/31/14, he would have made solid money. So I don't get your reasoning. How was it not a buying opportunity?

oh forget it

c'est la vie.

Small-time sucker wrote:

This is what I dont' understand about theads like this one, short memory.

This is what he actually said:

...

Heck, on Oct 16, he even defended agip and his ilk, who I think are personally useless parasites.

I want to see M back, plain and simple, he and agip are the only ones on this board with anything interesting to say. or were, that is

This is also what he actually said:

(April 10) Maserati wrote:

OK, let's sidetrack into a mini discussion of inflation.

...

My primary concern is the domestic buying power of a US dollar, primarily for essentials, productive equipment, and real property.

Inflation = increase in the price of goods & services, or conversely, a decrease in the purchasing power of a dollar

...

QE is in part designed to create money and thereby avoid deflation, is it not? We currently cruise along at a low rate of inflation as measured by the CPI--but it is relatively easy to show that the real rate of inflation is much higher than that.

The government keeps the CPI number low because the lower the number, the less it costs them in terms of benefits indexed to the number.

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(April 10) Let Us Begin wrote:

Ok, first we are going to have to define "real rate of inflation". Then we are going to have to use a verifiable, reproducible manner of calculating it and agree upon its value for some relevant period of time. Then we can begin this discussion without it being pure BS.

So, you're up - define it, show in detail how to calculate it, provide figures as well as the raw numbers behind those figures.

I'll be waiting.

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(April 10) Maserati wrote:

(sounds of silence)

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(April 10) Let Us Begin wrote:

So, pure BS is your style. As long as you can throw out ill-defined terms and make long-winded arguments around them you are in your comfort zone.

Got it.

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(April 10) Maserati wrote:

No, I own what I write.

You know what? It's about time I put some rigor into that measurement. I might do it over the weekend and let you know. Unlike core CPI, I include volatiles because there are ways to systematize their fluctuations. PCEPI will give some clues.

I also include taxes.

Your criticism is noted and welcome, and your abrasive style is appreciated.

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(April 10) Let Us Begin wrote:

I am impressed. Seriously.

I will definitely look forward to your posts next week.

Have a good weekend.

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(April 15) Let Us Begin wrote:

Waiting...

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(April 15) Maserati wrote:

Yes, I know, I am working on it. It will take some time longer than I had anticipated.

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(April 15) Let Us Begin wrote:

Thanks. Will be awesome to have something of substance to discuss on this thread.

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(April 17) Maserati wrote:

Let us begin/POTO, while I am working on things

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(April 21) Let Us Begin wrote:

I'll be waiting for that substance.

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(April 25) Let Us Begin wrote:

...and waiting...and waiting...

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(May 4) Let Us Begin wrote:

Well Mas, should we just chalk it up as so much hot air or are you actually going to ‘own what you wrote’ as you claimed?

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(May 5) Maserati wrote:

It's getting progressively easier to ignore your posts.

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(May 5) Let Us Begin wrote:

This from a man who wrote:

"No, I own what I write.

You know what? It's about time I put some rigor into that measurement. I might do it over the weekend and let you know. Unlike core CPI, I include volatiles because there are ways to systematize their fluctuations. PCEPI will give some clues.

I also include taxes.

Your criticism is noted and welcome, and your abrasive style is appreciated."

???????????????????????

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So, anyway, welcome back Mas. I don't expect much from you but the entertainment value is there.

I'm no M. Until recently I didn't think I had anything of value to contribute here, so I didn't. I still don't have anything 'real' to add, other than that I totally disagree with M on the value of guys like agip, and agree with the other poster who told agip he was useless. I only have a 401k, all Vanguard stuff. M was the only guy on here who seemed to have a sense of himself and actually congratulated others on their success.