Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

I'm just saying buying opportunities come only once every decade or so now,m and the window of opportunity gets smaller each time.

1999-2001

2008-2009

March/April of 2020

Next one will be like 3 days in 2030 or so.

What are the prospects for a V-shaped recovery?

Jokes aside, I don't know, and we won't know until the fall. I think the Fed and the US Government managed to successfully float the economy. The amount of money being sloshed around at every level is truly unprecedented. The issue now is successfully exiting the CARES Act programs and getting people back to work. I think foreclosures won't be much of an issue this time around but we might see mortgage servicing companies go bust (imo good; they provide no value to the economy or the consumer and are part of a bottom feeding business model that only exists in times of huge growth).

As for COVID-19, not many people really care anymore outside of the NYC area, and without significant leadership at the helm there's not much motivation to care.

As for Boise, I've seen some narratives that places like it can expect a huge influx of city folk. Worries of future pandemics, combined now with riots in the big cities, and high costs of living, and the fact that many white collar jobs are moving to full time remote could result in significant city life fatigue and a flight to cheaper, more rural areas.

Who would have thought Boise, Idaho would be a hot spot destination lol.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2020 (with 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 56% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 63% is the final percentage, it will mark the lowest percentage of positive EPS surprises since Q3 2012 (also 63%).

Actually life style in Boise pretty nice. Wish the growth would slow.

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2020 (with 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 56% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 63% is the final percentage, it will mark the lowest percentage of positive EPS surprises since Q3 2012 (also 63%).

2020 S&P 500 GAAP EPS estimate continues to fall now at $92.06. At 3,200 it implies 34.75 PE. 2019 GAAP EPS came in at $139.47. In June of last year the estimate for 2020 GAAP EPS was 40.38% higher.

That’s right, I forgot. The market was forward looking toward $6 Trillion in “stimulus.”

The gummint agrees it messed up with the jobs number today, in a big way:

Once again, the Labor Department acknowledged making errors in how it classified people as employed and said the real May rate is worse than the numbers indicate. But the government made the same mistakes in April, and together the figures still show the job market is improving.

Racket wrote:

Ford bounced between $10 and $15 for the entirety of the 10 year epic bull market. And you think they're going to suddenly double...because?

I mean maybe if the VW partnership works out. Good luck.

You make an excellent point. Still, I don't see any significant resistance until 8 1/4 so I'll hold for a while. I bought Slack at 32 instead. Better?

agip wrote:

The gummint agrees it messed up with the jobs number today, in a big way:

Once again, the Labor Department acknowledged making errors in how it classified people as employed and said the real May rate is worse than the numbers indicate. But the government made the same mistakes in April, and together the figures still show the job market is improving.

“Friday's report made it clear the government continues to struggle with how it classifies millions of workers on temporary layoff. The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed.

The government doesn't correct its survey results for fear of the appearance of political manipulation.

Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1 percent in May. But the corrected April figure would have been more than than 19 percent, rather than 14.7 percent.“

It’s OK, a V-shaped recovery in statistics is assured...at least temporarily. ?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2020 (with 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 56% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 63% is the final percentage, it will mark the lowest percentage of positive EPS surprises since Q3 2012 (also 63%).

2020 S&P 500 GAAP EPS estimate continues to fall now at $92.06. At 3,200 it implies 34.75 PE. 2019 GAAP EPS came in at $139.47. In June of last year the estimate for 2020 GAAP EPS was 40.38% higher.

That’s right, I forgot. The market was forward looking toward $6 Trillion in “stimulus.”

Estimates vs. actual results

Earnie wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

2020 S&P 500 GAAP EPS estimate continues to fall now at $92.06. At 3,200 it implies 34.75 PE. 2019 GAAP EPS came in at $139.47. In June of last year the estimate for 2020 GAAP EPS was 40.38% higher.

That’s right, I forgot. The market was forward looking toward $6 Trillion in “stimulus.”

Estimates vs. actual results

OK, S&P 500 2019 Q4 GAAP EPS $35.53 versus Q1 2020 $11.98 (97.5% reported). Just wait for the rest of the year; it will be far worse than $92.06. You will be begging for that number, Earnie.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

meanwhile, Vanguard.com appears to be down and schwab is way behind in trade confirms.

Melt up!

The mirror image of those -10% days in March and April.

Like I said, the time to buy was in March and April. If you didn't buy, then you'll have to wait 10 years for the next buying opportunity.

agip wrote:

the idiot wrote:

3200 today? 1500 sure seems a long ways off... :-)

BTW, I've sold 10% of my equity stake today.

I dumped a third of my gold position today. Made a fortune on it. Gold is up 28% over a year.

I own pretty much all the stocks I want to own - 60%. Not selling.

I am still underweight on bonds...I have that money in an online savings account making more than a 10 year treasury.

Just crunched my numbers and i am about 100% invested in the market now if including brokerage accounts and retirement accounts combined. About 8 percent down from my ATH and I can live with that.

I might some real estate fund i have in the coming days. It;s helped up okay so far but heard it could get dicey in the months to come.

*I might sell some real estate fund i have in the coming days....

In regards to real estate:

https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1268992083983032321/photo/2

Good to know, and thanks, but the real estate fund i hold owns commercial real estate and i believe most of it in urban centers.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

you predicting that markets will not be much higher in 2030? over today?

I'm just saying buying opportunities come only once every decade or so now,m and the window of opportunity gets smaller each time.

1999-2001

2008-2009

March/April of 2020

Next one will be like 3 days in 2030 or so.

What? You only buy at the market downturn? That's a terrible investment advice. First of all, it's very difficult to nail the exact bottom every single time. When I say very difficult, almost impossible to get it right every single time.

And, if you're only waiting to buy at the bottom, do you just wait on the sideline hoarding with cash? So, in 2001, you buy as much as you can, then you just keep saving cash until you buy again in 2009? Then again in 2020?

If you have so much cash to buy at the bottom, you've missed out on so much buying opportunity.

I feel like so many of the market timers on this thread actually don't really invest that much money into it. Like they're investing thousand here, or 10 thousand here and there. I actually hope that's the case b/c so many people on here have timed it so wrong that if they are actually moving money in and out as much as they say, they are getting destroyed.

Don't visit this thread wrote:

Racket wrote:

I'm just saying buying opportunities come only once every decade or so now,m and the window of opportunity gets smaller each time.

1999-2001

2008-2009

March/April of 2020

Next one will be like 3 days in 2030 or so.

What? You only buy at the market downturn? That's a terrible investment advice. First of all, it's very difficult to nail the exact bottom every single time. When I say very difficult, almost impossible to get it right every single time.

And, if you're only waiting to buy at the bottom, do you just wait on the sideline hoarding with cash? So, in 2001, you buy as much as you can, then you just keep saving cash until you buy again in 2009? Then again in 2020?

If you have so much cash to buy at the bottom, you've missed out on so much buying opportunity.

It is ridiculous isn't it? In fact, it's almost as if I was (wait for it) exaggerating, or maybe joking perhaps?

Speaking of jokes, I find this hilarious :

Racket wrote:

Don't visit this thread wrote:

What? You only buy at the market downturn? That's a terrible investment advice. First of all, it's very difficult to nail the exact bottom every single time. When I say very difficult, almost impossible to get it right every single time.

And, if you're only waiting to buy at the bottom, do you just wait on the sideline hoarding with cash? So, in 2001, you buy as much as you can, then you just keep saving cash until you buy again in 2009? Then again in 2020?

If you have so much cash to buy at the bottom, you've missed out on so much buying opportunity.

It is ridiculous isn't it? In fact, it's almost as if I was (wait for it) exaggerating, or maybe joking perhaps?

Speaking of jokes, I find this hilarious :

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/hertz-stock-price-skyrockets-since-filing-bankruptcy-traders-global-holdings-2020-6-1029285231

haha! you got me.

Don't visit this thread wrote:

[quote]Racket wrote:

haha! you got me.

We like to joke around here on this thread. Igy in particular has been telling the same joke since about 2015 if you can believe it!!

Sorry Igy I couldn't help myself.

Racket wrote:

Don't visit this thread wrote:

[quote]Racket wrote:

haha! you got me.

We like to joke around here on this thread. Igy in particular has been telling the same joke since about 2015 if you can believe it!!

Sorry Igy I couldn't help myself.

wow I really messed up that quote block