Down goes the Dow

the idiot,

Technicals are important because it represents collective market moves. Algos are programmed to them. Of course somewhat of a ouija board process with Fib retracements, support, resistance and all.

Good article from Ben Hunt on historical context of financial crisis and now.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/bear-stearns-and-the-narratives-of-systemic-risk/

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

the idiot wrote:

Hey Igy,

SP500 has been heading back upward for over a month now. Still a sucker's bounce, you think?

Absolutely. Typical bear market technicals. Good luck though, but I think you’re delusional.

What is wrong with you? Someone asks you your opinion and you insult them?

agip wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/zero-hedge-permanently-suspended-from-twitter-for-harassment

Oh, snap!

Texas oil clangs back down to $12 as major ETF bails out of June contracts for whatever they can get to avoid margin call.

Oh, snap, I hate when that happens.

Reports: lenders forced GM to suspend buybacks & dividends before they would extend additional loans.

agip wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/zero-hedge-permanently-suspended-from-twitter-for-harassment

agip wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/zero-hedge-permanently-suspended-from-twitter-for-harassment

Well, apparently they have a happy home on LRC, nonetheless!

But seriously, why bother even reading it if it's been banned two times from Twitter in as many years? So they say something, but is it true? If you can't know, why waste the time?

I mean, one can't be too careful these days when it comes to delusion, That much i know.

But on another note, what do you guys think of Twitter? I've traded it a few times and thinking of jumping back in. Wish i grabbed it a couple of weeks ago, but it's a very reliable platform i could see growing.

this market is completely bonkers

balanced portfolios are now back to their 200 day moving averages.

tech stocks are up 10% over a year

some larger indices are around flat for 52 weeks.

Sure man. 20% unemployment, economy in depression, 60,000 americans dead in a month or two, no cure, etc...and stocks flat over a year.

No one believes this, so it keeps ramping up. Some of it is massive short covering I'm sure. which will end eventually.

I'll give myself a C for this crisis. I panic sold some, unfortunately. Took my portfolio down to around 55% stocks from 64% at some bad times. I'm down around 10% for the year. I should be down just 7-8%.

I'll probably start adding back when stocks get above their 200 day moving averages. Or maybe not...maybe 55% is enough stocks for me at this point in my life.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/zero-hedge-permanently-suspended-from-twitter-for-harassment

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-will-never-return-free-market-capitalism-guggenheims-minerd-warns-current-crisis-lead

yeah keep giving bad people your advertising clicks. Nice, Igy, nice.

George Corwin wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Absolutely. Typical bear market technicals. Good luck though, but I think you’re delusional.

What is wrong with you? Someone asks you your opinion and you insult them?

I don’t think labeling someone as delusional is insulting. Posters who believe markets belong at this level are delusional. What else can I say?

I hear ya.

Still have a reasonable cash position just in case, but have been buying for a few weeks.

I'm sensing that tech may not be the out-performer wonder we have seen up to now. They have held up so well, there's not the opportunity for massive appreciation there like in some of the others. Small caps have been interesting. This may be a good time to build a position there. More like the classic recovery with small caps leading the rebound.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-will-never-return-free-market-capitalism-guggenheims-minerd-warns-current-crisis-lead

yeah keep giving bad people your advertising clicks. Nice, Igy, nice.

Ah, here is a follow-up to the story you posted from January.

I think a lot of small caps will shrivel up and blow away. Society will innovate its way through this crisis with tech companies leading the charge.

That’s my best guess anyway...

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I don’t think labeling someone as delusional is insulting. Posters who believe markets belong at this level are delusional. What else can I say?

Well, I took it as an insult. And I imagine most others read it that way.

Have we heard anything from mas lately?

the idiot wrote:

I think a lot of small caps will shrivel up and blow away. Society will innovate its way through this crisis with tech companies leading the charge.

That’s my best guess anyway...

I know. That's what i've been thinking, too. And that's the prevailing narrative. So, if that's the case, maybe that's why tech has held up and small caps have been cut off at the knees.

You know, nothing is more resilient than small companies as a category. I think the tech prevalence may be priced in, for the very reasons you note, but some other areas that have been beaten down more will have more to gain.

I'm not ruling that out.

the idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I don’t think labeling someone as delusional is insulting. Posters who believe markets belong at this level are delusional. What else can I say?

Well, I took it as an insult. And I imagine most others read it that way.

Have we heard anything from mas lately?

the idiot,

You’re a fine person, no insult intended. Coaches tend to be blunt with words, the written post sharpens the edges. My apologies.

No. I saw your earlier Mas post, and was likewise concerned.

Igy

[quote]agip wrote:

around 55% stocks from 64% at some bad times. I'm down around 10% for the year. I should be down just 7-8%.

Tesla crushed it today. Up 10.15%. I am back to 0% return for the year thanks to recently loading up in this one stock

So.....

SP500, the Dow and NASDAQ are about 15%, 19% and 11% off their February highs, respectively. That’s a big bounce up from their lows at about 34%, 37% and 30% off their highs.

What do we all think this means for the rest of the year? Igy has already told us SP500 will get below 1100. I think we’re more likely to approach 3400 again than dip below 1500. My forecast ( not prediction) is between 3000 and 3400 at the end of the year, with roughly 60% confidence. Let’s say 10% chance (in my guesstimating) above 3400, 20% chance between 2500 and 3000 and 19% chance under 2500.

Any other guesses?