Meanwhile, back to the stock market, any thoughts on oil companies? I can't see Trump letting our oil companies go bankrupt. MRO (Marathon Oil) is down from 14 in September to 3.6 today. It dropped from 8 to nearly 3 in one day. I bought about a 1/10 position today and plan to add to it before the OPEC meeting Thursday.
huah
Agip out.
What are some other oil companies you are thinking about?
I was just looking at Marathon, but if I was looking at another oil company, it would probably be ConocoPhilips.
I just heard on CNBC we are in a 2-day old bull market.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through April 6, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a loss of 9.38%. Our own S&P 500 is in second with a loss of 17.55% and in third is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 17.57%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a loss of 33.12%.
Portia wrote:
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through April 6, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a loss of 9.38%. Our own S&P 500 is in second with a loss of 17.55% and in third is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 17.57%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a loss of 33.12%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/04/06/world-markets-update?bt_ee=yQnJyWvVg1zrhSFts4t4HBZSd%2BIKykhXTVP1Kyi92l8Qi84vx%2FoSB%2BX55juWNE%2BJ&bt_ts=1586264913763
While Treasury Bills have provided a better risk adjusted return on five and twenty year time frames.
“While we aren’t suggesting investors go on a buying spree, markets are now trading slightly below our downside case on the S&P 500; given the accelerated move lower, we believe that longer-term investors might start to consider adding to equity risk....
So what’s the downside? We still think that 2750 may be a reasonable year-end bear case for the S&P. Should the U.S. dip into recession, it would likely be short-lived and policy responses could help stabilize and even accelerate growth from a trough in the second and third quarters. To put it more simply, for the S&P to end the year at around 2750 would imply lingering issues beyond a garden-variety recession that currently seem unlikely....
We aren’t suggesting that investors begin to add positions to early rebounding sectors, such as Discretionary, but that moment may be closer than some investors expect. Equity (and bond) markets have been discounting this environment for some time, which leads us to believe that we are now at a very good entry point for many stocks, including several of the major indices, such as the S&P 500.“
Looks like the 2-day bull market is almost over.
Buy signaI wrote:
“While we aren’t suggesting investors go on a buying spree, markets are now trading slightly below our downside case on the S&P 500; given the accelerated move lower, we believe that longer-term investors might start to consider adding to equity risk....
So what’s the downside? We still think that 2750 may be a reasonable year-end bear case for the S&P. Should the U.S. dip into recession, it would likely be short-lived and policy responses could help stabilize and even accelerate growth from a trough in the second and third quarters. To put it more simply, for the S&P to end the year at around 2750 would imply lingering issues beyond a garden-variety recession that currently seem unlikely....
We aren’t suggesting that investors begin to add positions to early rebounding sectors, such as Discretionary, but that moment may be closer than some investors expect. Equity (and bond) markets have been discounting this environment for some time, which leads us to believe that we are now at a very good entry point for many stocks, including several of the major indices, such as the S&P 500.“
Expert advice! Thanks.
Racket wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
[quote]can I post with a different handle wrote:
Okay, my last post. Life is too short. I don’t blame you now, nor did I ever blame you. That wasn’t at all the point, but you and Giles continue to dissemble.
Just asked you to post all the nasty comments directed art GOI for some context.
Not sure what that has to do with hiding my true intentions or feelings.
Maybe you ought to understand the meaning of a word before using it during your whining?
Why are you so retarded that you can't even quote a post correctly?
Copy and paste. Not sure what makes you think that can result in quoting a post incorrectly. Can you explain? And, while you are at it look up the meaning of the word dissemble.
Gruntz wrote:
Buy signaI wrote:
“While we aren’t suggesting investors go on a buying spree, markets are now trading slightly below our downside case on the S&P 500; given the accelerated move lower, we believe that longer-term investors might start to consider adding to equity risk....
So what’s the downside? We still think that 2750 may be a reasonable year-end bear case for the S&P. Should the U.S. dip into recession, it would likely be short-lived and policy responses could help stabilize and even accelerate growth from a trough in the second and third quarters. To put it more simply, for the S&P to end the year at around 2750 would imply lingering issues beyond a garden-variety recession that currently seem unlikely....
We aren’t suggesting that investors begin to add positions to early rebounding sectors, such as Discretionary, but that moment may be closer than some investors expect. Equity (and bond) markets have been discounting this environment for some time, which leads us to believe that we are now at a very good entry point for many stocks, including several of the major indices, such as the S&P 500.“
Expert advice! Thanks.
^sucker advice, perfect for you
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Gruntz wrote:
Expert advice! Thanks.
^sucker advice, perfect for you
Advice from a guy who does good work.
Gruntz wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^sucker advice, perfect for you
Advice from a guy who does good work.
Correct. That makes it surprising to read Igy’s assessment that it is “sucker advice”.
We're sneaking up on the worst of the CV-19 crisis. It will still get worse in some places for the next week or two, but then we'll be looking downhill in the direction of something vaguely resembling "normal." I expect the economy will take off like a rocket, pulling the markets along. I know the markets are still a little choppy, and there's still downside potential, but I feel like this is a pretty good place to start reallocating risk in one's portfolio.
But don't listen to me, I AM an idiot!
the idiot wrote:
We're sneaking up on the worst of the CV-19 crisis. It will still get worse in some places for the next week or two, but then we'll be looking downhill in the direction of something vaguely resembling "normal." I expect the economy will take off like a rocket, pulling the markets along. I know the markets are still a little choppy, and there's still downside potential, but I feel like this is a pretty good place to start reallocating risk in one's portfolio.
But don't listen to me, I AM an idiot!
I've been thinking the same thing. We already hit the bottom when he were in peak panic mode, peak uncertainty. Now we're experiencing peak CV-19 symptoms, and people are realizing it's not actually that bad most places, and life is going to start going back to normal (albeit a new normal) in several weeks. I think the market will be on an upward trajectory from here on out, though it definitely will be choppy, and it may take 1-2 years to hit new highs. I find it very unlikely we will see anything under 2500 for the S&P 500 from here on out though. BUT, there's always the chance for new lows.
PRD wrote:
the idiot wrote:
We're sneaking up on the worst of the CV-19 crisis. It will still get worse in some places for the next week or two, but then we'll be looking downhill in the direction of something vaguely resembling "normal." I expect the economy will take off like a rocket, pulling the markets along. I know the markets are still a little choppy, and there's still downside potential, but I feel like this is a pretty good place to start reallocating risk in one's portfolio.
But don't listen to me, I AM an idiot!
I've been thinking the same thing. We already hit the bottom when he were in peak panic mode, peak uncertainty. Now we're experiencing peak CV-19 symptoms, and people are realizing it's not actually that bad most places, and life is going to start going back to normal (albeit a new normal) in several weeks. I think the market will be on an upward trajectory from here on out, though it definitely will be choppy, and it may take 1-2 years to hit new highs. I find it very unlikely we will see anything under 2500 for the S&P 500 from here on out though. BUT, there's always the chance for new lows.
Biggest question mark is whether the millions of unemployed will be able to return to work.
Racket wrote:
PRD wrote:
I've been thinking the same thing. We already hit the bottom when he were in peak panic mode, peak uncertainty. Now we're experiencing peak CV-19 symptoms, and people are realizing it's not actually that bad most places, and life is going to start going back to normal (albeit a new normal) in several weeks. I think the market will be on an upward trajectory from here on out, though it definitely will be choppy, and it may take 1-2 years to hit new highs. I find it very unlikely we will see anything under 2500 for the S&P 500 from here on out though. BUT, there's always the chance for new lows.
Biggest question mark is whether the millions of unemployed will be able to return to work.
And if not, is that eventuality already figured into the market.
I've been buying for about a week now, albeit tentatively.
seattle prattle wrote:
Racket wrote:
Biggest question mark is whether the millions of unemployed will be able to return to work.
And if not, is that eventuality already figured into the market.
I've been buying for about a week now, albeit tentatively.
People will return to work, but it won't be 100% of workers. Where I work, the 50 or so workers who were sent home will ALL return to work literally the day they're allowed to again (the stay at home order is lifted), and I know most people in the restaurant and bar industry will start work again, though business will likely be slow for awhile (several months before returning to pre-pandemic levels). Theaters, massage therapists, etc will likely be the same: they'll return to work pretty much immediately, but it will take several months for business to come back to pre-pandemic levels. I see it as very much an economic slowdown, but I'm not anticipating anything like the Great Recession. The fall was too sharp, banks are much better prepared, we already got a stimulus passed, Washington has learned some things from the 2008 crisis, etc.
Again, I think it could be mid next year or even 2022 before we see the S&P hit 3400, but the worst of the market should be behind us. (I cross my fingers as I say this.)
Regardless, I feel pretty good about my moves. I sold my index fund at a loss of about 23% to invest in various stocks that were down 50-80%. IF they come back to previous highs, even if it takes 5 years, I will have made out quite well.
6.6 M new jobless claims. What is that, 16-17 million in 3 weeks?
Pretty soon we’ll be talking about real money lol.