Down goes the Dow

No hard feelings, Ghost!

Before they fire me, tell trump & cuomo that Little Rock, Arkansas has at least 7 major medical facilities, one of them an Air Force Base with cargo planes designed to bug out from the End of the World. Arkansas could help NYC if someone would pick up a phone. We have only 12 deaths in our whole state.

I don’t know why people are dying for no reason, but I guess Wall St only mirrors Main Street.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Good to know. So your 20% equity position that you say you advise would seem to conflict with that holding. Do you get selective with stocks that you seem might outperform regardless of your bear market positioning? Don't feel that you have to answer, but it does make me wonder....

I have about a 10% position on average. I wouldn’t recommend more than 5% since most people do not understand the risk. No, on the stocks, since I believe all will go down, just some less than others. In a bear market correlation becomes 1-1. Therefore, the stocks that are down -50%, will lose less from here than those down -10%. At least that is what market history tells you. The old adage “the generals are the last to die” applies.

that is something to consider, see bolded portion above. First, the generals don't die and they instead recover, rebound, and set the stage for a new bull market, so history teaches us (i.e.: 2001, 2009).

But given that, you might be onto something. Small caps would traditionally be a good place to be in such a rebound were it not for the nature of this downturn, and we all know how bad it's going to get for small companies feeling the pinch. Once their is a glimmer of light at the end of that tunnel, I bet that would be a good position to hold for the rebound. And it is also a tenet of capitulation that it's not over until you see an outright dumping of even the bellweather stocks, representing the sentiment that it's not a matter of what anymore, it becomes a matter of getting out all costs, no matter the loss.

Valuation metrics tell you where this market is likely to bottom. The Covid-19 virus and policies advanced to cushion the blow makes it hard to discount where we go in the future. I would assume that depends on attitudes on a variety of things we once took for granted. Government debt, and tax policy will be drivers as well. Lots of unknowns.

[quote]can I post with a different handle wrote:

Okay, my last post. Life is too short. I don’t blame you now, nor did I ever blame you. That wasn’t at all the point, but you and Giles continue to dissemble.

Just asked you to post all the nasty comments directed art GOI for some context.

Not sure what that has to do with hiding my true intentions or feelings.

Maybe you ought to understand the meaning of a word before using it during your whining?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I have about a 10% position on average. I wouldn’t recommend more than 5%

??‍♂️

wait what? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I have about a 10% position on average. I wouldn’t recommend more than 5%

??‍♂️

I have been doing this professionally as long as you have been alive.

?

wait what? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I have about a 10% position on average. I wouldn’t recommend more than 5%

??‍♂️

Ha ha! Even Igy knows enough not to take his advice.

For now I’ve got Ghost owning the bulls; or maybe rent-to-own.

jesseriley wrote:

For now I’ve got Ghost owning the bulls; or maybe rent-to-own.

Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.

nelvin wrote:

jesseriley wrote:

For now I’ve got Ghost owning the bulls; or maybe rent-to-own.

Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.

The herd goes right over the cliff following the leaders without thought

seattle prattle wrote:

I agree with Jesse in that Igy has every right and should express his contrarian views and so should whomever so chooses.

I applaud his forthrightness and full disclosure that he holds a shorting position in his portfolio and in the portfolio of some that he represents.

Lastly, regarding his admonitions he frequently unleashes on the longs of this site, i like the biblical ones the best (i.e.: sheep being led to the slaughter), but really enjoy the fire and brimstones ones the best. I think we got some of those when there was a reference to blowing the top off the market like a volcano. Those really light me up!

Keep 'em coming, big guy!

I've said it before and I'll say it again : Igy is just one of many perma-bears that have spent way too much time on ZeroHedge over the past 10 years. The narrative is a boorishly predictable angst regarding the dangers of fiat currency, debt bubbles, and Central Bank policy, and stock market prognostication Now they're running the "I Told You So" laps on all the aforementioned issues and this is important because people who obsess over predictions and who are so tightly glued to a single narrative are also the ones who need this validation the most.

It's the exact same mindset of "Make America Great Again," like it was in some arbitrary past. Quite frankly, it's an embarrassingly narrow viewpoint that suggests "the stock market" should be like it was 20 years ago when tech companies blew up in a traditional valuation bubble, and it completely ignores all the history and economics that's occurred since.

To people like Igy, the fundamentals of this economy are the same ones that were around in the American Revolution, the Renaissance, and all the way back to ancient Greece (not that they can actually tell you anything about the history of economics of those times or even the current state of the global political economy for that matter).

Giles Corey wrote:

[quote]can I post with a different handle wrote:

Okay, my last post. Life is too short. I don’t blame you now, nor did I ever blame you. That wasn’t at all the point, but you and Giles continue to dissemble.

Just asked you to post all the nasty comments directed art GOI for some context.

Not sure what that has to do with hiding my true intentions or feelings.

Maybe you ought to understand the meaning of a word before using it during your whining?

Why are you so retarded that you can't even quote a post correctly?

Funny really, oh “it’s different this time.” That’s why it is working so well, after $Trillions pumped into the economy. All you have to do is look at the bond like equity returns and 2% GDP growth to see what a failure your “broader view” has been. Hey, but don’t worry, you’ll get your cheaper housing as long as you don’t lose your savings in the stock market.

FIXED:

Racket, welcome back, it's not the same without you. Now anyone seen that Maserati guy?

I agree with you completely on the above, while still acknowledging the perma bears rights to keep posting, even with all their flawed approached approach, methodology, and unchanging message. That is what was being called into question - someone was saying that posters who didn't beleive in the buy side of the equation shouldn't be posting here in the first place.

But like i said, good to hear from you.

Can't wait to see where this thing is headed this week. My prediction is more of a slow grind down with a fair amount of volatility, but i am hoping to be proven wrong,

Racket wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

[quote]can I post with a different handle wrote:

Okay, my last post. Life is too short. I don’t blame you now, nor did I ever blame you. That wasn’t at all the point, but you and Giles continue to dissemble.

Just asked you to post all the nasty comments directed art GOI for some context.

Not sure what that has to do with hiding my true intentions or feelings.

Maybe you ought to understand the meaning of a word before using it during your whining?

Why are you so retarded that you can't even quote a post correctly?

Copy and paste is too confusing for you? How is that even possible?

“The longer this drags on the higher the probability that many jobs will not come back making this eventual recovery, while sharp at the beginning, also destined for a lower trajectory recovery as then the full consequences of the damage will come apparent.

Underneath it all there are again lessons crystalizing that were once again ignored: Those that saved during this cycle are able to withstand the shock, those that didn’t or couldn’t can’t. While this business cycle was the longest it didn’t magically extend. It was paid for with cheap money and constant central bank intervention. These very central bankers that once again are intervening at a new record pace created the illusion that they are all powerful. In 2019 there was even fantasy talk by people who should know better that recessions could no longer occur, that the boom and bust cycle had been eliminated. It hasn’t. The bust is here in a big and unexpected way. And it’s here to stay.”

—Sven Henrich, Northman Trader

Giles Corey wrote:

Copy and paste is too confusing for you? How is that even possible?

You can’t be serious.

Johannes, have you seen what is happening to your European banks?

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1246824110988165121