D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

90% of the country doesn’t know if Florida is academically like Northern Arizona or Notre Dame.

They probably have opinions about BYU, but with Florida they’ll just lump it in with general views of major state funded schools.

Hello Washed-Up,

I wonder if the TiC values for 10000m races on the track are too generous. For example, LACCTiC awarded Joy Naukot a 14:56 TiC for her 31:34 at NCAA’s which has a 5000m equivalent (per Daniels, etc.) of only 15:11.

So in the above example, the awarded TiC was 15sec faster than the Calculator’s equivalent.

Another example of a 10000m performance, when the athlete did not run a 5000m at the same meet, is Valby’s Bryan Clay, where she ran 30:50, having an equivalent of 14:49, yet the awarded TiC was 14:38, in this case being 11sec faster than the equivalent.

This discussion was prompted by a review of whether any of the TiC’s from the recent Rim Rock Farm Big 12 performances of Hedengren, Chamberlain and Naukot were a bit on the generous side.

Yet some of the major state funded schools are some the best academic schools in the country - UVa, UCLA, Michigan, UNC, Ohio State, Cal…

Which of these last 4 top 50 who haven’t raced yet might still?

Noe

Bunnage

Hutchins

Tuwei

Flotrack is saying Tuwei will run regionals

Interesting question; someone rumored Noe was redshirting, and Bunnage may be doing the same coming off of injury. Hutchins is hard to say.

Of the four, I would guess Tuwei, but maybe Alabama is looking to podium over the next couple of years by buying another Kenyan in the off-season, thus possibly giving reason to redshirt her.

Didn’t see this in cross-posting.

I thought so too. I think 10ks are, on average, tactical. Since I’m comparing averages, there might be a slight bias

Still, I want to avoid making manual corrections to “look” right. A few years ago, this forum was up in arms over Parker Valby being rated at a 14:52. If I recall correctly, she ran exactly 14:52 a month later. If I can find the source of the bias, I’ll try to fix it. I might look into using medians for the 10k conversions. I thought I tried this already but I’ll look into it.

I see the track 5k performances get awarded TiCs that are close to the 5k finishing time. (Valby’s collegiate 5ks were not usually tactical.)

Biasing the 10k’s downward with the assumption they are tactical is interesting, but possibly there is excessive bias correction. Maybe with that approach (or using medians, etc.) is it possible to introduce a cutoff limit to the correction, being the 5k equivalent? (That might require a lookup table to determine the limits, unless your model includes the Daniels/Gilbert VO2max equation approach).

Thank you for your reply.

How about Baloga? She used to beat napoleon.

You may have given 10k more weight than 5k, as it's longer than 6k. ie extrapolating down rather than 5k up to 6k.

While there is always some small doubt if a track 5k can translate to xc, there is close to zero doubt that a 10k will compare.

By the way, amazing work with this. It's better than what ncaa and coaches are doing. You could talk to them or their software provider and possibly earn a few bucks if you helped them upgrade their program.

In the fwiw category, The Stride Report issued their latest individual rankings. Hedengren -2, Chamberlain - 15, and have NC St top 5 at 5, 6, 18, 24, 30. If this is right it will be a rout. I am calling Chamberlain ~equal to top 2 of NC St, and the BYU back end ~equal to Engelhardt. If somehow BYU has Hutchins close to Chamberlain then the 2 squads are very close imho. The polls/rankings are all sliding in the direction of NC St. The National poll still has BYU at #1 but by a tighter margin. The Stride Report and Flotrack (who has gotten much better this year) have NC St at #1.

The Coaches Poll is starting to come around, as well.

It is close, with NC State under BYU by only 7pnts, if Hutchins were to run at a level equivalent to her best track 5000m of 15:16.

Here is that simulation if we:
(1) award Hutchins a TiC of 15:16;
(2) give the rest of the BYU five the (possibly somewhat generous?) latest TiCs from Big12’s;
(3) give NC State’s five their TiCs from Nuttycombe;

Hedengren 14:42……..Hartman 15:15 (+2)
Hutchins 15:16………….Napoleon 15:19 (+2)
Chamberlain 15:18……Gapes 15:32 (+5)
Roberts 15:46…………..Michalak 15:32 (-17)
Lovell 15:47………………Englehardt 15:48 (+1)

NC State under BYU by 7pnts

However, without Hutchins, we come up with NC State under BYU by 39pnts, as follows:

Hedengren 14:42……..Hartman 15:15 (+2)
Chamberlain 15:18……Napoleon 15:19 (+1)
Roberts 15:46…………..Gapes 15:32 (-23)
Lovell 15:47………………Michalak 15:32 (-18)
Macchia 15:49…………Englehardt 15:48 (-1)

NC State under BYU by 39pnts.

That sounds about right. It will be really close. Gordon needs to do a podcast that BYU’s championship chance rises and falls with Hutchins.

At the d3 level many of the top women’s teams are Hopkins, Chicago, and MIT. None of which are - at all - easy schools