I did not claim that Nico is on the same level as Jakob or Bekele. I pointed out that you are able to improve in big jumps when you are still a teenager. Jakob ran 14:38 in the 5000m at 15!
Jakob vs. Jim Ryun:
Jim at 17 was the first highschooler to break the 4 minute in the mile in 3:59.
Jakob ran 3:52 at 17 and a 1500m in 3:31 which equals 3:48 in the mile.
Jakob ran at 16 faster than Jim ever did in the 5000m.
Do you maintain that Jim was the better of the two?
Is Ping better than Dudek? Nobody cares about comparing what they were doing at younger ages. So until Young can run beat Rupp's HS times, Rupp is better. Those are facts. Feel free to look up Rupp's times and you will see that Young is not close. You can speculate that he will be better, but he is not better yet.
Jakob was being trained as a professional, including long stints at altitude, and training with two top professionals by age 14, so his age group performance records are not going to be comparable to a lot of American athletes trained by high school coaches. Young, however, enjoyed a long training stint at altitude last summer and his workouts are similar to those of top college athletes (I'm thinking of 6-7x1k at 2:45 on wet grass), so he's going to run as fast as any American high schooler has run at 2M and 5000m. And I am sure that he will get into a fast race at the latter distance to get his times down, which is something that top prospects in this country rarely do. For instance, Webb, who ran an easy 8:45 2M indoors, never ran the 5000m in high school, though he set the Footlocker South record for 5k xc.
I read they changed the course and it’s 30 sec faster at Oregon
How is the Jakob v. Young comparison relevant?
zxcvzcvx wrote:
Jakob was being trained as a professional, including long stints at altitude, and training with two top professionals by age 14, so his age group performance records are not going to be comparable to a lot of American athletes trained by high school coaches. Young, however, enjoyed a long training stint at altitude last summer and his workouts are similar to those of top college athletes (I'm thinking of 6-7x1k at 2:45 on wet grass), so he's going to run as fast as any American high schooler has run at 2M and 5000m. And I am sure that he will get into a fast race at the latter distance to get his times down, which is something that top prospects in this country rarely do. For instance, Webb, who ran an easy 8:45 2M indoors, never ran the 5000m in high school, though he set the Footlocker South record for 5k xc.
The question is whether Young can run 13:37, which has nothing to do with Jakob who is probably the most talented non-East African ever, for 1500/5000. He would still be very fast if he was American. Young spent about a month last summer training at altitude and studies have indicated that any benifit would be gone within 2 weeks. If there was such a thing as running faster by training like a college runner, then everyone would do it.
Young is as talented as any high school we've seen in recent years... I bet he can take a good run at Rupp's record in the right setting. The setting is the sticking point, though. Didn't Rupp run 13:37 in Europe over the summer at Heusden or one of those sort of places? Will Young have opportunities like that? It's not happening in a high school only race. Maybe if he ran at Stanford or something. How do California high school rules work? Could he run Payton Jordan and still be eligible for the California state tournament? Or would he have to wait unti after CIF stuff is over to find a postseason race?
opportunity knocks wrote:
Young is as talented as any high school we've seen in recent years... I bet he can take a good run at Rupp's record in the right setting. The setting is the sticking point, though. Didn't Rupp run 13:37 in Europe over the summer at Heusden or one of those sort of places? Will Young have opportunities like that? It's not happening in a high school only race. Maybe if he ran at Stanford or something. How do California high school rules work? Could he run Payton Jordan and still be eligible for the California state tournament? Or would he have to wait unti after CIF stuff is over to find a postseason race?
He can run in Payton Jordan, but he can not represent his school or wear their jersey. They only times I remember it happening were Jeff Nelson's 2-mile record in 1979 and Hulst's 10K record in 1976.
1337 wrote:
I know it's a long shot, but Nico definitely has the aerobic strength to be able to run 13:37.
Strap on the Vaporflys and I think he can.
trapper jim wrote:
Young will likely be able to run a 8:25 this spring. Given that, he'll easily be able to go under 13:37. More like 13:30 flat.
Especially if he can hit the weights a little bit and stop flailing is his arms around. He looks ridiculous and wastes a bunch of energy
13:37 converts to a low-8:30's 2-mile, maybe 8:29-ish. For an aerobic beast like young it certainly isn't a huge stretch, given good comp and conditions. The big question is can he snag both Rupp' 5K and Verzbicas' 2-mile?
YMMV wrote:
13:37 converts to a low-8:30's 2-mile, maybe 8:29-ish. For an aerobic beast like young it certainly isn't a huge stretch, given good comp and conditions. The big question is can he snag both Rupp' 5K and Verzbicas' 2-mile?
If he can do one, there's a good chance he can do other. The training is the same.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
YMMV wrote:
13:37 converts to a low-8:30's 2-mile, maybe 8:29-ish. For an aerobic beast like young it certainly isn't a huge stretch, given good comp and conditions. The big question is can he snag both Rupp' 5K and Verzbicas' 2-mile?
If he can do one, there's a good chance he can do other. The training is the same.
Agreed, but still a real hat trick with finding the right timing of competition and conditions.
A. Moran wrote:
1337 wrote:
I know it's a long shot, but Nico definitely has the aerobic strength to be able to run 13:37.
Strap on the Vaporflys and I think he can.
Without VF, no way. With them, for sure. That’s 20 seconds
Bower Man wrote:
Racing the Stanford Invite in April or the Payton Jordan "B" race in May would offer him the best opportunities for a 5k pr.
By the way, USATF xc nationals is in San Diego on Jan 18th. Maybe he still has more xc in his blood.
this would be his best chance in an open/university 5000m such as Payton--can high schoolers compete in those open races unattached?
I was comparing with Jakob to show that it is possible for a teenager to improve in big annual jumbs! Even if he already has trained seriously for a number of years
Also wellknown American high school and college runners such as Alan Webb, Andrew Wheating, Josh Kerr and Drew Hunter have as teenagers made big annual jumbs depending on when they started to train seriously.
Webb: Improved his his mile time from 4.06.94 at 16, to 4.03.33 at 17 and famously to 3:53.43 at 18.
Wheating: He started late but improved his mile time 4:20.55 at 18 to 3:58.16 at 20 and 3:51.74 at 22.
Josh Kerr: He improved his 1500m time 3:58.87 at 15 to 3:52.46 at 16, 3:44.12 at 17, 3:41.08 at 18, 3:35.99 at 19 and 3:32.52 at 22.
Drew Hunter; Improved his mile time 4:10.94 at 16 to 4:02.36 at 17, 3:57.15 at 18 and 3:56.79 at 19. Further he improved his 5000m time 13:49.56 at 19 to 13:21.18 at 21.
My point is that Nico - if he trains seriously and effeciently - will be able to experience similar big jumbs in his development. I won´t be surprised if he this year improves his 1500 time to around 3:40 to 3:41 similar to a mile time below 4:00. I will add that Nico seems to rely very much on his aerobic capacity why he should do relatively better on the 2 miles and the 5.000m
Galen Rupp jumbed from 14:20.29 on 5000m at 17 to 13:37.99 at 18
"I will add that Nico seems to rely very much on his aerobic capacity why he should do relatively better on the 2 miles and the 5.000m."
What does that mean? Doesn't every great runner strong aerobic capacity? Does he have an 85 VO2 max?
What were Rupp’s PRs as a HS junior for 3k/2 mile?
I would guess that Young has run faster. Maybe even faster at the mile. As a HS junior would anybody have predicted Rupp would run as fast as he did as a senior?
Hejdfjfjdj wrote:
What were Rupp’s PRs as a HS junior for 3k/2 mile?
I would guess that Young has run faster. Maybe even faster at the mile. As a HS junior would anybody have predicted Rupp would run as fast as he did as a senior?
There have been runners that have had big improvements from their Junior to Senior seasons and those that didn't. We had a guy that ran 9:44, 8:58 and 9:02 from his Sophomore to Senior year. That Rupp improved significantly his Senior year doesn't necessarily mean Young will.