Will Jenny Simpson ever beat Shelby Houlihan again?

Jo72 wrote:

Semenya is considerably faster than Wilson in both 800 and 1500m and was beaten by Kipyegon and Wilson in a race with a slow beginning in London.

So if Wilson beat semenya in London, what you think she would do with houlihan!?

Proofread people

I was merely pointing out that having a very fast 800m time and a decent 1500m is not a very good predictor how one would fare in fast closing 1500m races. I think Semenya did better in London than most expected (but than she obviously has some rather special abilities).

Wilson has raced too few 1500m races so that it's anyone's guess how she would do in certain types of 1500m races. Being able to run sub 1:56 800m simply does not tell you much about this.

Don't be surprised is Jenny ends up on the podium again at Worlds - why? Just look at her history.

Unlikely unless Houlihan has a mental lapse, but at her age (she'll be 33 next month) finishing second at nationals is a great accomplishment. She was probably the oldest runner in the field and she was nearly as fast as Houlihan on the last lap. If she can keep her sponsor I wouldn't be surprised to see her continue past 2020.

Hes right wrote:

Indoor? wrote:

I think your strategy would be playing even more into Shelby's hands. No way does Simpson beat her in a full sit and kick.

The guy is right. Think about it... Shelby is the AR holder in the 5k, so she’s a more strength based runner and is finishing these 1500m fast off of that strength. Jenny’s a pure 1500m runner, so she needs to set a last 400m that will knock the socks off the entire field. She led the chase pack today but she led it going too quick, she should have slowed it down. The girl up front would have came back to her in the last 200m if she were to just be patient and run a 57 last 400

Houlihan just ran a sub-2 800. Don't count her out on the speed end.

Strategist wrote:

At Swarthmore... ok and you think she was trying to prove something there? Hoolihan lost to Kate grace in an 800 a few weeks ago... you think she would lose to grace in an 800 at USAs... no.

Actually yes. I'll go with the 1:58 runner who made an Olympic final in the 800m.

People here are arguing that 0.23 seconds is insurmountable under any circumstances. As has happened many times with Houlihan, the best way to beat her is to have a 5+m gap with 400 to go. Even with a devastating kick, it is difficult to make up a big gap. .

Simpson is peaking for the World Championship as she always does. She is a proven championship racer. Houlihan may beat her, but it is not a sure thing with rounds, peaking properly, racing / training properly in the time between now and then, possible injuries. Heck, Houlihan may not even race between now and then and may not be race sharp. The unknowns are what makes racing exciting. Good luck to them both.

I think they are very evenly matched in talent , strength, speed, gear shift, etc., and if Jenny can get in position to key off of Shelby the way Shelby did it to her, using Shelby's tactics, her chances would be good. I think it is a chess match and the master tactician for that given day is going to win if both women are at their top fitness, although time is on Shelby's side, thus this balance of power will eventually shift but I don't think it has quite yet.

la chula wrote:

If you say yes, you must give a reason.

She did better than I thought she would today but I am still going with no.

If we accept that both are capable of being with a lead group with 400 to go, then we can probably also accept that almost anyone is capable of getting stuck on the rail at the wrong time and can lose by a step to a slightly “inferior” runner as both finish around 3rd to 6th (or whatever) in that mad rush to the line.

PointTwoThree wrote:

Simpson is peaking for the World Championship as she always does. She is a proven championship racer. Houlihan may beat her, but it is not a sure thing with rounds, peaking properly, racing / training properly in the time between now and then, possible injuries. Heck, Houlihan may not even race between now and then and may not be race sharp. The unknowns are what makes racing exciting. Good luck to them both.

These are excellent points, especially the seasonal fatigue that combines with rounds that shapes everything. Line Nick Willis up in a fresh field versus one that has had prior rounds. He is not the same guy and Simpson fits that mold. Great observation.

Someone else said they are very similar in ability. I agree except for Houlihan's acceleration seems to be superior right now and that is a great weapon in championship racing.

I feel like this thread existed last year when it was more poignant. My answer is the same as it was then - no (barring Shelby coming off an injury in a small meet). And that's fine. Jenny has had a h*ll of a career and Shelby has a lot of work to do to match Jenny's successes.

Jenny, as per her Flotrack documentary, moved from Missouri to Florida during 3rd grade. From Iowa to Mizzou, dunno.

walter j wrote:

I feel like this thread existed last year when it was more poignant. My answer is the same as it was then - no (barring Shelby coming off an injury in a small meet). And that's fine. Jenny has had a h*ll of a career and Shelby has a lot of work to do to match Jenny's successes.

This thread is about 8 months poignant, even more poignant than last year.

And that is why they dope folks.