Ultrarunner Podcast Claims Bruce Fordyce better than Kipchoge

It's folly to claim BF is better than EK. We'll never know if Kipchoge can better Fordyce's time because he'll never run 50 miles. Too many carry on & on about peripheral stuff that doesn't directly respond to the original post. I've distilled the best response here.

Forest Gump again wrote:

100 miles on road and track is a little different since it is not an official distance and was only raced a couple of times over the decades. There is no existing 100 mile record list anywhere on the internet. Don Ritchie set a high mark in 1977 and it was improved 25 years later in an anniversary event by Oleg Kharitonov in 11:28:03.

These are probably no soft times but we don't really know.

But in 100k running the records are well established over the last 30 years. Interestingly enough Don Ritchie's record from 1978 was just improved a tiny bit days after his passing. Don had a Marathon best of 2:17 I think.

Totally agree on greater skill sets the longer the distance and terrain variability.

100 miles is an IAU recognized and ratified event for World Records and is raced all over the world on both road and track. There's an event in Germany happening in a few wks (the women's 6hr WR holder is racing it). If you're looking for performance lists, DUV keeps an extensive list. Oleg Kharitonov was a Comrades Champion and 7-time gold medalist.

Delusional ultrarunners? wrote:

Just heard that Ultrarunner Podcast's Eric

Are ultrarunners really this dellusional to what kind of talent and ability someone like Kipchoge/Bekele has?

Short answer: Some are, but not all.

I'm an ultra guy and listened to this podcast earlier today and thought it was ridiculous. Even more ridiculous than the 50 mile claim was that Kipchoge could beat a 50 km record "if given a year worth of training". Are you serious? The guy ran 2:01 and you think he needs a year of training to go 8 km longer and much slower.

It is true that we don't know what elite marathoners can do in ultras, but all information we have points toward these facts:

1. Yes, an ultra is a different race and different people are good at it than at the marathon.

2. Issues can be nutrition, muscle fatigue, elevation,... All of which may exist in the marathon, but get exponentially harder in you're our there twice as long or longer.

3. BUT: All these are trainable!

4. A good distance runner is a good distance runner. If he wanted, Eliud Kipchoge would destroy all ultra records up to and including the 24 hours record within five to eight years (would probably need some tries).

Ultra guy wrote:

1. Yes, an ultra is a different race and different people are good at it than at the marathon.

2. Issues can be nutrition, muscle fatigue, elevation,... All of which may exist in the marathon, but get exponentially harder in you're our there twice as long or longer.

3. BUT: All these are trainable!

4. A good distance runner is a good distance runner. If he wanted, Eliud Kipchoge would destroy all ultra records up to and including the 24 hours record within five to eight years (would probably need some tries).

Agree with 1 +2

3. Well kind of.

4. Not at all. Kipchoge would easily do a record over 50k and maybe over 50 miles. 100k , who knows.

24 hours no way. That is a totally different thing. He would be quitting after 8-9 hours latest.

If you look at this DUV 100 mile list you see that most results are splits from 24 hour races.

There is or was not one 100 mile race on roads I can think of which happened more than once. This is almost a non existent distance for road racing.

The Berlin race you are probably referring too had a couple of top competitors but since this is a big loop course you are not going to see really fast times there like in a 100k loop race.

http://statistik.d-u-v.org/getresulteventalltime.php?event=50465

Forest Gump again wrote:

Kipchoge would easily do a record over 50k and maybe over 50 miles. 100k , who knows.

24 hours no way. That is a totally different thing. He would be quitting after 8-9 hours latest.

Quitting? Why? What about Kipchoge makes him seem like he would DNF anything, ever? Why do ultra people say things like this?

Elite is made up of so-so runners with lots of time and money on theirs hands. What makes you think that given sponsorships, years to dial in nutrition and great, a crew of 10 vacationing friends etc etc etc, a given sub-2:05 Kenyan wouldn't be as good as all of these 2:40+ Americans winning the ultras?

it is the new tri wrote:

Elite is made up of so-so runners with lots of time and money on theirs hands. What makes you think that given sponsorships, years to dial in nutrition and great, a crew of 10 vacationing friends etc etc etc, a given sub-2:05 Kenyan wouldn't be as good as all of these 2:40+ Americans winning the ultras?

Sorry for the typos.

Elite ultra running is made up of so-so runners with lots of time and money on their hands. What makes you think that given sponsorships, years to dial in nutrition and gear, a crew of 10 vacationing friends etc etc etc, a given sub-2:05 Kenyan wouldn't be as good as all of these 2:40+ Americans winning the ultras?

it is the new tri wrote:

Elite ultra running is made up of so-so runners with lots of time and money on their hands. What makes you think that given sponsorships, years to dial in nutrition and gear, a crew of 10 vacationing friends etc etc etc, a given sub-2:05 Kenyan wouldn't be as good as all of these 2:40+ Americans winning the ultras?

Because that's not how it works.

You have to show up at the start line. Would have, could have does not count. None of these top marathoners have every tried anything longer than Comrades. Why because they can't do it and they know it. Not to mention that their bodies are exhausted from all the years of training on the top level of Marathon and track running.

You just have to look at Kipchoges fabulous Berlin Marathon finish. With that running style you get nowhere in ultrarunning.

Only people who have not done ultraraces can make claims like this one.

0/10. As stated already a way past his prime Salazar won Comrades in his first and only try. In the 10 years that he was not ranked he was barely running at all for long periods of time. Of course the world record holder in the marathon in his prime would easily defeat any ultrarunner on a reasonably flat road course.

Another fail as well since Kipchoges stride running 4:38 per mile pace is going to look different than running at his easy pace.

problems houston wrote:

Hayduke wrote:

lets recap. salazar was a 208 marathoner in his prime at athletics west(we all know what that means) and then decades past his prime he destroys so called world class ultra runners...... kipchoge is a 201 marathoner and in his prime now.

Main thing is that Kipchoge is a massive doper. His times don't count. Anyways, I doubt he'd be any good after 26 miles. There has never been any african good in the ultras. Plenty of good ultra runners from around the world however. Likely, the Africans are not built to withstand long/tough distances.

I do think Salazar would have been better than Kipchoge in the UTMB, but in either case, I don't think either would finish ahead of the top woman.

Have You ever heard of the comrades marathon? Yeah, a lot of south Africans 2:08-2:13+ marathoners go on to run pretty good times there.

I actually think a "slower" 2:18-2:23 marathon guy can still win Comrades...esp on an "up year" of course though. However, there are some very good 2:08-2:15 guys that also do really, really well at a race like Comrades....and win or compete for top 5. These guys are not going to lose very often to a 2:30+ guy on the roads. Heck, when I ran Comrades with Max King in 2015 the lead pack of like 30 guys came through the first marathon split in about 2:38 and it was over 3000' of net uphill already! Not sure what the prize money was when Salazar won but a win there now is worth like $35,00-40,000 USD...that is pretty big money for an ultra race. Sure its not like a marathon major though. I'm actually reading a fascinating book right now called "Runaway Comrade" by Bob de la Motte which sheds some light on Fordyce, his training and his dedication/focus on the event. Those guys ran in some tough times for little or no money. It is very inspiring. Back to what Camille and I were talking about: Looking physically at distance runner "range and extension" (And the physical demands of these different events) we can say that of course not every college guy who runs a sub 14:00 5km will be a sub 2:15 marathoner (despite what the "calculators say"). A lot show up at the marathon and never run under 2:20. Part of that is training, part of that is because they quit running after college, and part of that may just be genetics (i.e. maybe they were also better at the Mile and ran 4:00!). Now the marathon is over 8 times the distance of the 5km....it is a totally different event! Still there is a pretty strong correlation between 5km times and the marathon though when you look at high numbers of runners. Especially on a flat track to a flat road course. So to "extrapolate" (also an a flat, uniform surface) from a marathon to something like 100-miles isn't that far fetched. It is only less than 4 times the distance. The events are both very, very aerobic and utilize mostly the same energy systems... and sub maximal (unlike that sub 14:00 5km which is contested at near 100% Vo2max and even has an anaerobic component). The challenge comes with the fueling/hydration and the sheer muscle damage/fatigue...which of course can cause horrible, horrible problems after 5-6+ hours. All top level marathon runners are going to be "mentally tough." It is freaking hard to train and race for a high level marathon and it is hard to run a high level ultra as well. Realize also that I have only failed spectacularly at 100-milers (granted they all were quite hilly or had mountains and were in relatively extreme weather conditions). Never have I been so humbled by a distance running event and reduced to a shell of myself. I've also been extremely humbled racing high level 5km and below events on a track though (which I really suck at)...and racing in marathon majors etc. But of course a flock of sub 2:10 guys aren't coming over to ultras anytime soon. There is money, but compared to something like a marathon major it is generally going to be a lot less lucrative...plus I think a lot of these guys don't even know about MUT Running....and there are a lot of barriers to entry....especially on the trail/mountain side. And there is a big difference between ultras on the trails/mountains and ultras on roads/tracks. In closing, I will stand by my point that there is a very high correlation between marathon PRs/marathon potential and how well someone CAN do at an ultra on the similiar type of surface and elevation profile (usually flat and uniform road/track/dirt/grass)....even if that event is double or nearly quadruple the distance.

Ezekiel bread wrote:

problems houston wrote:

Main thing is that Kipchoge is a massive doper. His times don't count. Anyways, I doubt he'd be any good after 26 miles. There has never been any african good in the ultras. Plenty of good ultra runners from around the world however. Likely, the Africans are not built to withstand long/tough distances.

I do think Salazar would have been better than Kipchoge in the UTMB, but in either case, I don't think either would finish ahead of the top woman.

Have You ever heard of the comrades marathon? Yeah, a lot of south Africans 2:08-2:13+ marathoners go on to run pretty good times there.

I did some more research on Salazar and muscle fibers. In Lore of Running (I have the 3rd edition, 1991, before Salazar won Comrades), Noakes cited an article by Costill. Salazar was an exception to the norm for elite distance runner having more slow twitch fibers (92%) than other elite distance runners (78-88%). Noakes reasoned the possibility of the slow twitch fibers being able to contract fast too. Muscle fiber % is genetics/born with, so you develop what you’re born with. Slow twitch fibers simply have more mitochondria and aerobic metabolism of fat. Also, he talked about the “Salazar shuffle” and running efficiency.

Salazar had the distinct features that are cited now as being unique of ultrarunners. He was an exception to the norm though for marathoners, as most are more fast twitch. It goes to show that an elite marathoner won’t know if they have the same characteristics until they try.

Interesting analysis Sage - out of curiosity - how do you think Jim Walmsley's JFK 50 miler in 5:21 stacks up? Or his 5:51 at Sonoma?

Gotta think that that is equates to a 4:50, or at least very close - no?

The guys at Comrades are running 5:20s-30s going 55-56 mi, 6000ft of climbing on the up course, and often in extreme heat (although this yr was cooler). Notably, the best road ultrarunners have more of a shuffly gait too, which is gentler on your body and more efficient.

A curious cat wrote:

Forest Gump again wrote:

No, some letrun posters are delusional what Marathoners can do on ultradistances.

Some might pull it off like Alberto Salazar did but he only did it once I believe.

I would agree if we were talking about a 100 miler or 200 miler, but we're only talking about a 50 miler.

Agree, it's only 50 miles. Japanese dudes probably run below that WR on their long runs here and there. Let's ask Yuki what's his 50m PR.

henrik wrote:

Agree, it's only 50 miles. Japanese dudes probably run below that WR on their long runs here and there. Let's ask Yuki what's his 50m PR.

But 50 miles it's where ultrarunning just gets started.

100k and 24 hour are the distances which have the most competition. I don't think sub 2:12 marathoners have ever tried that.

That sounds like a hard training run for kipchoge. He probably has the record and does not know it. Remember when he did 40km in 2:15 only 10 days before Berlin 2017.

http://www.sweatelite.co/eliud-kipchoge-full-training-log-leading-marathon-world-record-attempt/

Bottom line is that if anyone put up 500,000 for a 50 miler record next weekend it would be demolished by someone from Kenya and Kipchoge would not even bother with it at that price.