Here is a scary thought. there is an interview on Milesplit NY. She says this summer her workouts and time trials were a lot faster than last year.........http://ny.milesplit.com/articles/248142-rundown-and-race-video-of-katelyn-tuohys-insane-ocean-state-course-record
Predictor wrote:
If good academically, should go ND if conservative and Stanford if liberal.
Academically, those are not remotely comparable schools.
Takealook wrote:
speed ratings are a joke wrote:
This is such nonsense. Look at speed ratings for Woodbridge and you see they are identical each year despite a course change and despite different competitors. Not only that, boys and girls get the same ratings for the same time despite being in different races. Tully just guesses to the best of his ability. The fact he's so adamant about Trotter having a 180 speed rating goes to show how ridiculous the whole thing is.
If it were at least somewhat of a science it would be repeatable by others based upon certain criteria, such as an average of all the runners previous track season 1600 and 3200s or something of that sort. Instead it's a psuedoscience that is heavily weighted towards making east coast kids look better and those at national championships look like they all peaked really well, which they don't.
Or you can use your eyes and brain and just look when he does his national meet previews (which are based on his speed ratings, fyi) and see that although not a perfect science, his projections (again, based off the speed ratings) are historically pretty damn accurate
Projecting where teams will finish is not a very difficult thing to do. Comparing one person's performance to another's is a lot different. My beef is that a rating of 200 does not always equal the same performance, so the speed ratings don't always mean the same thing, but in our heads when we see the same number we think it means the same thing. It does not in this case.
Look no further than Footlocker Nationals to see ridiculously inflated speed ratings. I've coached a handful of kids who have run there and their ratings typically jump up 7-10 points despite my having been able to predict within a few seconds what they would run based off of other times they ran througtout the season and those previous times were given significantly lower speed ratings. It's total BS. I'd love to think I was coaching those kids great and they had a huge jump in fitness, but that's not the case. They ran like they had all season, nothing more and nothing less, which is what you see with the large majority of HS kids.
I think they admit that the ratings go off a little when you have a meet with only a bunch of top runners who push each other to even better performances
Agreed, and I'm an east coaster. It's an incredibly inexact metric --- the last thing we want in obsessive high schoolers' minds.
Duane wrote:
I think they admit that the ratings go off a little when you have a meet with only a bunch of top runners who push each other to even better performances
The point is this: they aren't pushing each other to significantly better performances. I had a kid finish top-5, one in the top-15 and one in the top-25 and was able to guess ahead of time what their times would be to within less than 10 seconds. Yet they all got much higher speed ratings than they had all season. 195 can easily turn into 202. You'd think the 202 was a better effort or performance, but it's simply not the case. I like the idea of speed ratings and can appreciate Tully isn't making money off them it's just his personal opinion, but when you get a website with a large following like Milesplit using them as if they are fact and start considering them when picking wildcards for NXN then it's a real problem.
Duane wrote:
A while back in another thread I posted I thought she would do high 420s in mile, 930 ish for 2 miles this year. For now I will stay there but we shall see.
Ok, link the thread for your stealth gloat of being an amazing predictor----Captain Obvious, LOL!!!
ok you lazy pos. http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8970136
for context check out page 2 of this thread where someone asked "How is this possible"
Yup, keep telling yourself that.
Phantasy Star wrote:
Not too shabby.
100% positive that if Lane were in this race blah-blah-blah.....
I just knew you were gonna be "that guy".
This is going to be a fun year. Heh...
FAST GRIL wrote:
AS OF MOMENTS AGO, KATELYN TUOHY JUST DROPPED A 16:07 AT OCEAN STATE XC INVITATIONAL IN RHODE ISLAND. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS COURSE RECORD BY 90 SECONDS.
NO OFFICIAL RESULTS AVALIABLE YET, BUT THIS IS WHAT IS REPORTED BY SPECTATORS ON SIGHT.
That race was absolutely insane. Chmiel had the previous record. She will easily go down as the best high school runner of all time, men or women.
I like her chances of making the olympic team in 2020.
Phantasy Star wrote:
Not too shabby.
100% positive that if Lane were in this race she would have sat on Tuohy and then popped a sub-16.
Tuohy is very, very good - but still the second-best female HSer in the nation.
I am a 3rd generation SoCal resident and my father ran track, I ran track and my son was an XC all-American in college, so I have been following track and XC for a long time (50+ years). I am a huge fan of Claudia Lane and hope that she has a great XC year, but she has not demonstrated that she has progressed as fast as Tuohy. Tuohy is looking like she may be our best female talent since Mary Decker.
Phantasy Star wrote:
Not too shabby.
100% positive that if Lane were in this race she would have sat on Tuohy and then popped a sub-16.
Tuohy is very, very good - but still the second-best female HSer in the nation.
Phantasy Star is the new XFit_Guy_the_Real_One_1, only instead of proclaiming ad nauseam how Rich Froning could run a 15:XX 5K and how lame scrawny runners are, he proclaims how Lane would beat Tuohy.
California XC fan wrote:
Phantasy Star wrote:
Not too shabby.
100% positive that if Lane were in this race she would have sat on Tuohy and then popped a sub-16.
Tuohy is very, very good - but still the second-best female HSer in the nation.
I am a 3rd generation SoCal resident and my father ran track, I ran track and my son was an XC all-American in college, so I have been following track and XC for a long time (50+ years). I am a huge fan of Claudia Lane and hope that she has a great XC year, but she has not demonstrated that she has progressed as fast as Tuohy. Tuohy is looking like she may be our best female talent since Mary Decker.
Also a Lane fan, but c'mon, this Touhy girl is in another stratosphere!
They should really let her run in a Boy's Invitational race sometime this year.
run fast RI wrote:
FAST GRIL wrote:
AS OF MOMENTS AGO, KATELYN TUOHY JUST DROPPED A 16:07 AT OCEAN STATE XC INVITATIONAL IN RHODE ISLAND. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS COURSE RECORD BY 90 SECONDS.
NO OFFICIAL RESULTS AVALIABLE YET, BUT THIS IS WHAT IS REPORTED BY SPECTATORS ON SIGHT.
That race was absolutely insane. Chmiel had the previous record. She will easily go down as the best high school runner of all time, men or women.
I like her chances of making the olympic team in 2020.
She will medal in Tokyo . You can quote hound dog ?
yoyomama wrote:
They should really let her run in a Boy's Invitational race sometime this year.
Maybe some day she'll be required to.
You Americans are so patriotic and believe that you’re perfect.
Cool Tuohy may be SUPER fast for American standards sure, but the girl is definitely not a world beater at 16years of age!
She still has a long way to go before she’s able to reach the world stage and may be hit by a number of problems before she gets there that may reduce/hinter her performance.
Anyhow she’s great for an American but let’s not forget the 194 remaining country’s out there where equal/better talent exists!
Have you heard about Georgie Clarke was also a prodigy running 4.17 as a 13 year old and 4.06 as a 16 year old for the 1500m? Unfortunately she didn’t make it to world success! What about 12 year old Imogen Stewart who hold countless more international age records then Tuohy!!! She’s current just like Tuohy! Wow hey? That’s right....... Touhy is far from being a Jakob.
Nevertheless any white athlete can forget about Olympic success Centro won the lottery and Rupp has been a labrat to who knows WTF Alberto Salazar has done to him. As long as their are East-Africans the world is screwed from 800m-Marathon. Irrespective of what you guys believe the FACTS are against you all! Who hold the records from 100m-Marathon Africans! Get with it they are genetically superior regarding running. Lol keep dreaming, she’ll get destroyed by East African girls who are of the same age or even younger. Sorry guys but she can still be the best white girl, if she holds up and doesn’t plateau through burn out.
Duane wrote:
I think they admit that the ratings go off a little when you have a meet with only a bunch of top runners who push each other to even better performances
Bill will tell you that they are not exact. I coached for 20 years in NY State- we used them to get an idea about where competitors were and they seem to be reliable when it comes to assessing a team.
One of my runners even found a fantasy league where HE was one of the runners- it was some college guys, they had a draft and everything.
He said one week I rested him and his fantasy coach"was mad at me! LOL
Theyŕe fun and a great barometer of how theyŕe doing.