Does Evan Jager just not have the fire?

ex-runner wrote:

It boggles my mind that every year people predict that next year all the times will be slower due to increased testing. Just amazing. If an omnipotent test for blood doping came out then you'd see a marked difference in performances of 1-2% in about 6 weeks, not a year. Why would it take a year for blood to return to natural levels?

a) This is about Jager, who, as the most suspicious likely doper, had to undergo the most extra tests, as specifically spelled out on that likely doper list.

b) This is not just about Hct, which indeed decreases within weeks, but about the long-lasting benefits of having trained and raced at an unnaturally high level for years. See Hamilton's talk.

c) Times are decreasing for a while now:

When was the last sub-13? The last sub-12:50? The last sub-27? The last 3:26 (by whom?) etc. etc. Or btt, the last 3000 steeples world record? By whom?

BTC has a weird track record on the men's side with older athletes. Granted injuries are usually involved, but Teg, Solinsky, etc. went from world class in the 5000m to publicly stating they couldn't kick in a matter of a season or two. That always seemed weird to me and indicative of something in the training.

I've also never liked the way Jager raced. There's a middle ground between a Kemboi-style burst with 250 to go and a long push from 800m out. I think Jager has been slightly off his amazing form from a few years ago but at that time, as a 3:32 runner, I think his best strategy would have been to try and have the fastest last 400-500m (e.g. Centro). He's never seemed confident in his closing speed to test it.

I saw him at Millrose in 2015 when he ran 3:55 and was right there with Centrowitz and Lagat, and not lacking "fire". He also ran the 3000 there in 2016. Hope to see him there the next two years running the mile.

ex-runner wrote:

I've not seen him take a race by the scruff of the neck since he disastrously fell on his face on his way to 7:5x.

He just needs to race more! How is he supposed to be race sharp like his competitors without racing?! No matter how much and fast you train, if you don't race for 2 months it's like the beginning of the season each time. Waste of his talent!

El Keniano wrote: I’m a big fan of Evan ‘white simba’ Jager myself (yes I am, do a search) and he’s always been my favourite American runner. At the end of the race in Monaco, they showed a glimpse of him looking mighty frustrated and disappointed and I agree sub 8 is now unlikely . For one, I don’t think the sparse racing is a good strategy. But who am I to judge? I’m not his coach.

Yes the racist mzungu are very disappointed he did not mount a stronger challenge to the Kalenjin horde.

Actually you are right we should all be fans of white simba Jager, he has big balls and takes it on, sometimes, against the very best. He's the only mzungu steeple athlete who concerns the Kenyans. But he could do better. It's that last summit push from being a medalist to a dominant champion that is missing.

I cannot understand why an athlete who has run 3:32.97 can't take it from say 300 out, hard, no matter what the pace. Not many, if any, of the Kenyan steeplers can match that 1500. Compared with other MD runners who race top Kenyans, Jager ought to be in the driving seat.

I agree with other posters, his sparse racing is a crappy strategy and once "failure" is encountered it makes it harder to recover mentally. He also needs to take risk - as he did in Paris 15 before he fell. It might mean giving up a minor medal and risking a 4th or 5th place finish - but the thing is, he HAS minor medals. Now's the time to go for broke. It's not too late for him - NOT QUITE YET.

I wonder if Jager trained in Kenya and adopted the philosophy of racing and tactics there, if he could improve?

chargeoff wrote:

I think his best strategy would have been to try and have the fastest last 400-500m (e.g. Centro)

That is what he tried to do yesterday jackass

running commenter wrote:

DC Wonk wrote:

Jaeger peaked too soon last year and the same this year. He needs to adjust to account for that. The six weeks between running 8:01 and today obviously did nothing for him. He was not able to go fast when it mattered.

You know nobody broke like 8:10 today, right? Who was going fast?

Correct, nobody broke 8:10, so all Yager needed to be was a couple seconds faster than he ran. I agree tactics could have doomed him. He doesn't at this time have the final 400 speed that guys like Kipruto have, so he probably should have taken over from a mile to go and see if he could have worn them down. Jager has been good in pushing the pace in races, but he waited too long.

Or, as I proposed, he may have already peaked and unable to run close to 8:01 at this point in time.

El Keniano wrote:

I’m a big fan of Evan ‘white simba’ Jager myself (yes I am, do a search) and he’s always been my favourite American runner. At the end of the race in Monaco, they showed a glimpse of him looking mighty frustrated and disappointed and I agree sub 8 is now unlikely . For one, I don’t think the sparse racing is a good strategy. But who am I to judge? I’m not his coach.

Similar sentiments here. Except i fully hold him and Jerry accountable for their approach as being one of the main culprits in his lackluster performances at times. Athletes MUST RACE to get acclimated and calloused to racing conditions, to pain levels. No amount of workouts can simulate the experience for mind and body. I am a massive fan of Jager's potential and accomplishments, but can't understand how they haven't learned that 4 races over a 4 to 5 month RACING season (barring injury or injury concerns), is just antithetical to accomplishing all that they want to accomplish.

I guarantee that if he added in 5k's, 3k's, and 1500's around his focused 3k SC performances, he would run faster, be more competitive, and accomplish much more than he ever will with this same approach.

Not sure how many times they have to fail until that make a change. I also think this would have been a great year for 1500 and / or 5k PR attempts. These things would only broaden his talents that he could then refocus in SC in a championship year.

Unfortunately, the clock is ticking, and i'm afraid he will never get 100% out of what he could potentially do.

Precious Roy wrote:

Evan is too long to be able to turnover on the last lap the way Kipruto can. He is also much more of a rhythm runner like Rupp and needs to grind people down before the last lap. Kipruto has always been able to out kick him.

I think Evan should try to move up in distance after 2020. At 29, his kick is not going to get much better. He will easily make the Olympics, but there will always be an E. African who can close better. He is an incredibly smooth and efficient runner. He could be surprisingly good at longer distances.

he is smooth, beautiful stride

running commenter wrote:

Yeah. Jerry needs to attend a level 1 coaching clinic or something.

Definitely! I'd recommend one of those remedial on-line tutorials before the clinic, so he's at least heard of the basics. Otherwise, he's going to be lost.

ex-runner wrote:

Evan Jager ran faster this year than last year, and last year he ran faster than the year before.

No, he hasn't. Jager ran his last outdoor PB in 2015, and his last indoor PB in early 2016. Since then, he's run almost as fast in the steeple, but not at any other distance.

Jager had a great year in 2015. In addition to his 8:00.45, he ran a 3:32.97 1500. Since then, only 30 men have run faster. Only Centro has in the US, and Farah and O'Hare in the UK. Jager's time is especially impressive because unlike the others, who got their PBs in Monaco, Jager got his at the Portland Track Festival, where he dragged others to PBs.

Umm,

It’s clear he hasn’t been the same runner,

Since the Fancy Bear leak.

And that’s a fact.

eureka wrote:

I'm a huge fan of Evan but after today's race wonder if he has the killer instinct needed to be the best.

Kipruto ran nearly the entire race with one shoe. Jager was up there looking like he wanted to do well but once they went around him on the final lap just wilted. Sure you can't just will yourself to a victory but if Jager had whatever Kipruto had today I think we'd see a different result.

Kipruto may have a Ferrari engine but he also has something else uptop. He was determined to win the jackpot.

Evan Jager is a stone-cold bad-ass. You are wildly incorrect on this one. Next.

ex-runner wrote:

When was the last sub-13? The last sub-12:50?

These times are squarely in Jager's wheelhouse.

It’s egun wrote:

Umm,

It’s clear he hasn’t been the same runner,

Since the Fancy Bear leak.

And that’s a fact.

Are you avin' a laugh?

We’ve even watching this kid since 2007,2008. No way he’s doping. The talent is beyond obvious.

It’s egun wrote:

Umm,

It’s clear he hasn’t been the same runner,

Since the Fancy Bear leak.

And that’s a fact.

You're going to have to back that up with facts. This is not true at all.

"Almost half"...? Huh? Exaggerate much?