What will Jakob Ingebrigtsen's 1500 and 5000 PRs be at the end of his career?

Coevett wrote:

I think 3:24/3:25 and between 12:30 and 12:40 is reasonable to hope for now. Of course, it's quite possible that he could run even faster. Even I didn't expect him to do as well this season as he has. Also, if he has a long career, he could be 'in his prime' around 2026 or even 2030. Who knows what improvements to shoes, tracks etc will take place by then?

I also think he can run some seriously fast 800 times one day. Maybe he will be like Aouita and want to win medals and break records at 800 to 10000 and even beyond?

It seems funny now people are saying that he only gets by on his kick in slow races. Before this season everybody was saying his problem was an inability to kick.

it's funny because if he was African you'd be screaming that this was evidence of doping but instead swear that this guy is clean.

hes' good for 330, 13low now.

if he comes out guns blazing next season, that means he's trained within his physical capacity, that being the case,

he's going to challenge records, given solid training blocks, you really are talking world record in the 1500.

for the WR you need that perfect pacing in the WR venue, and his brothers can surely supply pacing up to 1k, and if philip becomes a couple of seconds faster, you have pacing to 1200m.

there will be no doubt that he takes the 3000m steeple record given good health.

Runnergrl wrote:

No not trolling. He has wonderful talent BUT he 17 and already been training very hard for years now. Even his brothers have said he’s been training for years.

How long can one sustain that? He started training when he was 11??? Normally you have about 7-8 years of hard training to get to where you will be the best you can be. He is there already. If he had been just running around a soccer field at 11 this would be a whole different story.

Are you changing your opinion?

Are you not still suggesting he has been training like a pro since he was......7 years old like earlier?

They are mainly training treshold workouts. This among the easiest quality workouts you can do as a runner. Its far easier than something like what Alan Webb or Jim Ryun did, if thats what you're scared will happen. He has been steadily ramping up his volume of training, and if you think he trained like a pro like Centro or Manangoi when he was ,for example, 14 years old, I'm not sure I can believe you're serious.

3:27/12:54

The kid's been trained with pros for years already, but he's still due for about 4 or 5 years of improvement simply because of physical maturity. He just got his growth this year. He must have grown 4-5 inches in the past year. He's about to turn 18 (next month), so he's not likely to grow much more.

Give him three or four years to full strength and coordination after he stops growing. 3:27 is pretty ambitious for the kid but it seems possible to me. He'll run 3:29 next year. The way he's closed 5000s here and world junior's this year make me think he is very good at the distance and can run a lot faster. Sub 13s have become rare, though, and so opportunities to draft off of sub 13 pace are hard to find. That limits the pr's of the whole current generation of runners.

I’m not changing my mind. Too much too soon.

Yeah but when kipchoge was "in his age" he was actually in his twenties lol

+1

Vdickkcda wrote:

3:30.2

13:04

Bunch of morons, trolls, and white supremacists here. This guy from page one is the most likely to be correct. Up to 1.5 seconds faster at 1500m and 6 seconds faster at 5000m could also be called “reasonable”. Anything faster than that is moronic.

Let's see it, Letsrun.

"If this guy were a Mafia drug-dealer you'd be screaming and calling him a criminal, but since he's a teacher and volunteer firefighter you swear that he's a contributing member of society!!!"

Did ya'll just completely forget about Mary Cain?....and every other phenom out of America the past 10 years?

I say 3:29 next year and Silver at World Champs. Maybe 12:59 but likely closer to 13:01. Fast 5k's just dont happen anymore. Even Chelimo hasn't broken 13, it doesn't really matter to people. Unfortunately it's more than likely that he burns out at 20/21. I don't wish that upon him, but he's had a huge work rate at such a young age. I hope he can stay healthy through this next Olympics because he looks like a quality championship racer at this point.

Prediction: he loses interest in running before he hits 20 because he realizes there is no money in track and field. Goes to school, becomes an engineer, starts a company with the other siblings, saves his pennies, and retires before he is 40.

No.

2020 = 1500

2024 = 5000

2028=10000

2032=marathon

predicting phenoms is pretty useless.

normally you'd figure this guy would burn out, but the trajectory is not there.

you don't have 17 year olds winning anything in track.

typically most young guys that achieve peak before 20, but then there is the exception, a bolt, a gretzki,

gretzky played pro at 17, without longevity issues.

true it is playing with fire to do so much at this age, but again the phenom is not on the curve.

probably the best model is ryun, who peaked at 20, but was that so bad, to be an all time great?

tragedy is when you peak at 18 and are a has been.

i'd bet jacob is on the gretzky track if anything.

he'll get the steeple record if healthy.

Master System wrote:

Ffhhh wrote:

He’s not a 5k runner. Probably never will be in the top times of distances above the mile. Kipchoge in his age clocked 12:52

Imagine how soyed you'd have to be to actually believe this.

Leave you incel terms at home and stop being a garbage human.

dbags wrote:

Master System wrote:

Imagine how soyed you'd have to be to actually believe this.

Leave you incel terms at home and stop being a garbage human.

Do you actually believe Eliud Kipchoge ran 12:52 at age 17? Or are you just too soyed to admit otherwise.

joecrunner wrote:

https://www.strawpoll.me/16259827

Let's see it, Letsrun.

Teeny-tiny turnout it is way too early to call this race

Kid phenoms are early peakers, that's the only way to be so good at such a young age. They are done by the time they are 20. That's when Ryun set his PR's. Mary Cain was already over the hill. Nigel Amos ever sub 1:42 again, not a chance.

From 3:31 Jakob will get to 3:29. Maybe 3:28, no further. People don't understand he is already just about at his limit.