HOULIHAN SHELBY with the AR in heusden

shelbo10000 wrote:

Too juice to L?

I have not seen anything to get suspicions about, it not like she came from out of nowhere. Shelby has been good since she came on the scene in high school. She had an excellent NCAA career and was projected to become a star on the next level. With that said, so many NCAA athletes don't live up to their potential, which I guess when one does, it looks strange. In my mind, Houlihan is only slightly exceeding expectations. Albeit, 14:34 is an American record, on scale it is less impressive than a 13 minute 5K for a man. Houlihan just ran an amazing time by American standards, but it is not nearly fast enough to make me suspicious. 14:34 would have put Shelby behind about half dozen women in the Rabat 5K. She didn't run a time that anyone should think American aren't capable of. A strength-based sub-4 1500m runner, should be able to run 14:30x. We have been underperforming in that event. The USA has a male and a female capable of running with in a few seconds of the SC world record...it's not like American's aren't capable of running fast with out drugs.

No disrespect to Shalane or Huddle, but their 1500 PRs were fast enough run as fast as Shelby did in the 5K. Shelby has always had a strong kick, but was a low volume trainer and relied on her kick. Now, she is training with world-class distance runners and running almost double the mileage she was a few years ago, which has improved her stamina a lot. This not some situation where some relatively unknown athlete from a country with poor AD is suddenly running out the chart times. If Shelby is doping, God help us all because all of track and field must be doping. The USA has world's best antidoping program. This not to say a USA athletes are incapable of doping, but the frequency and randomness of the testing means there is a limit to how much what type of dope you can possibility get away with it. To fully appreciate what I just said, you would need understand how the antidoping program works. (Read Up!) The only times and places you are guaranteed not to be tested is if you are on an African safari or a cruise ship per se. USADA actually test pregnant athletes. The U.S. leads the world in blood test, which unlike urine where micro dosages of dope can only be detected within a day or so, blood will show trace amounts in your system for weeks and even months for certain types and volumes of dope. To consistently beat the system, requires a team of people working with you, you will need medical and/or pharma/chemical support and usually a supportive coach as well. This does not come cheap and is still very risky.

The main point is, it is not fair to call someone out simply because they have had some good performances and there is absolutely nothing about their career that says they should not be given the benefit if doubt.

Any video

My vote is she’s clean. Trains extremely hard and smart. Add that she fuels her body, isn’t a walking skeleton and therefore has been healthy and consistent for 3 yrs and you have your explanation .

Don't be naive, Americans are as doped as the east Africans.

Am I the only one wondering what happened to Molly? He Shelby that much better, or was Molly just off today?

1955 wrote:

Am I the only one wondering what happened to Molly? He Shelby that much better, or was Molly just off today?

It's called being a marathoner. Rupp can't run under 13:20 anymore either, for example.

Yes, that is just what I meant, implausible, unlikely, hard to believe, given her development and age. It is great if she is clean. If not, that is a shame. In the Rowbury case, it was probably in between the two, given Salazar's gray-line actions.

Just checking wrote:

zxcvzxcv wrote:

This is a literally incredible season for her.

That's a nice analysis, but are you sure you want to word it that way? Incredible literally means, "not credible," as in implausible, unlikely, or hard to believe.

Let's hope this SOS turns out better than Jerry's last SOS -- the Summer of Solinsky.

For Salazar's athletes, it was likely they were getting things on the edge like the 2012 injections, as well as the thyroid medication and asthma medication, but they were also being tested by Nike's own in-house lab, just like the Russians do, to make sure nothing would test positive. Are the Bowerman athletes also being tested in the same way? I never have thought that Jager was doping. If he were, he'd be well under 8. This is a guy who ran in the 13:20s at 20. He's been far too consistent (not like Mo, for instance, who might run like crap in xc early and then shortly after run low 8 or 59:32) and forthright in interviews. But it is clear that there are mechanisms in place at Nike to prevent its athletes from testing positive outside and we do not know whether they are protecting the brand or enabling doping.

1955 wrote:

Am I the only one wondering what happened to Molly? He Shelby that much better, or was Molly just off today?

Houlihan ran 8 seconds faster than Huddle has ever run, so yes, she is that much better. There are several other factors that like kept Huddle from running much faster than she did today:

1) Most obviously, Huddle's training is focused on the marathon, not on shorter track races; she hasn't run under 15 in two years, and probably didn't have a fast -- 14:40/50 -- race in her;

2) Her fastest times -- 14:40/50s -- have all come in fast races where she finishes 6th or lower, giving her lots of pacers;

3) When she is the fastest runner, (ie, she wins, or finishes second), her best times have been around 15:00; given how far behind Houlihan she was, she basically ran alone today.

1 + 2 + 3 = Since Huddle couldn't keep up with the Houlihan, 15 evenish is what we'd expect from Huddle.

4) Any chance she was pacing Sisson?

Gatlin was the Olympic gold medalist and world record holder in the 100 when USADA banned him for eight years, a ban that was taken down to four years by the CAS.

Doesn't USADA test Rupp more than any other track athlete?

Why do you disagree with their rulings?

USADA was formed on October 1, 2000, after Armstrong had begun winning the TdF. USADA conducted an investigation and took down an American icon who raised millions of dollars for cancer research. If they will take down Armstrong, they will take down anyone.

It doesn't look like that.

zxcvzxcv wrote:

Are the Bowerman athletes also being tested in the same way?

Schumacher was hired to work with Salazar in the Oregon Project. That soon went sideways, and he got his own group. Who knows whether he got the same privileges and access to the rest of Nike as Salazar? Right now, all we can do is speculate.

I have no doubt she can run faster this year in the right race , competition, and with good pacing....possibly as fast as 14:24 this year. For sure.

zxcvzxcv wrote:

Houlihan should end this season with at least one more American record, at 1500m, and I would like to see her run in a fast 800m as well.

I agree with this 100%, I'm really interested to know what she can run for 800!

This! Must suck to be an American runner and have a breakout season because apparently you must be doping then. Geez people, you act like she is a nobody who all of a sudden came out of nowhere. She had the potential to do this and is now in the right training environment and has managed to stay injury free.

TrackCoach wrote:

The USA has world's best antidoping program....the frequency and randomness of the testing means there is a limit to how much what type of dope you can possibility get away with it. To fully appreciate what I just said, you would need understand how the antidoping program works. (Read Up!)

I agree with you. It helps to understand how the anti-doping programs works before judging it. To help move the discussion along, here are some facts about how often the USADA tests T&F athletes:

1) Shelby Houlihan turned pro in the summer of 2015. In her first 2 1/2 years as a pro, USADA tested her 5x. Most of these appear to have been in-season. She was not tested at all in 2015, 2x in the summer of 2016, 2x in the spring of 2017 and 1x that fall. That's an average of 2x/year. That schedule doesn't leave much opportunity for out-of-competition testing.

2) Jenny Simpson turned pro in January, 2010. In her first 6 years as a pro, USADA tested her 17x. That is just under 3x/year. In 2010/11/12, they tested her 4x/year. In 2013/14/15, they tested her a total of 5x. Many of those were in season, which means she had long periods with no tests.

Houlihan and Simpson were fairly typical; over the last few years, athletes tested average 2 - 3 tests/year. Most athletes who are tested are not tested that often. For example, in 2014, 500 T&F athletes were tested. Of those 500, over 300 were only tested once; another 80 were tested 2x. In other words, of those tested, almost 80% were tested just once or twice. Of the rest, only handful -- less than 30 -- were tested more than 10x. Galen Rupp was tested the most -- 21x. Next most tested were Gatlin and Meb, at 15x, followed by such names as Lagat, Jeter, Ritz, Teg, Goucher, Richards-Ross, Reese, Flanagan & Cain.

(Again, many of these tests undoubtedly came during meets, meaning USADA had less opportunity of testing out-of-competition, when doping actually occurs.)

I will let you decide whether these numbers are big or small.

(These numbers come from the USADA "Athlete Test History" page. It includes all tests ordered by the USADA on US athletes, here and abroad, so it gives a good picture of USADA testing actions.)

bleu wrote:

My vote is she’s clean. Trains extremely hard and smart. Add that she fuels her body, isn’t a walking skeleton and therefore has been healthy and consistent for 3 yrs and you have your explanation .

+1

The entertainment on here is ridiculous, considering every male tennis player in the top 20 was tested some 20 times in 2017 and Houlihan was tested 3 times.

I love to laugh and laugh hard wrote:

The entertainment on here is ridiculous, considering every male tennis player in the top 20 was tested some 20 times in 2017 and Houlihan was tested 3 times.

Houlihan was well outside the top 20 ranked women last year. She was 58th fastest over 1500m and 30th fastest over 5000m. I doubt if that would put her in the top 100 overall rankings.

Gatlin: ran as oldie the same times as during his best years, which were doped. A clear career doper who didn't get caught anymore after his ban.

Rupp: likely doping, elevated testo, forbidden method, and that's just what leaked. No action from USADA.

Armstrong: again, we knew of his doping since 1999. USADA didn't act before 2011, 11 years after its start, after the feds literally made their case. If you see that as an example how USADA works, i.e. only when they really have to, then it's obvious why almost no runner gets banned.

Why I disagree with the kissing and beef excuses? Well for one, USADA itself pretended to disagree with the kissing excuse, but couldn't get bothered to build a case.

As for the beef, that was accepted by USADA, without any evidence other than the athlete claiming to have receipts for beef. Here USADA chose to trust without even analyzing the beef. Sets a terrible precedent.

@testing: that does not mean an athlete is clean. That only means he/she cannot dope above certain threshold, what people here misleadingly call gray zone or microdosing.

Let me cite from a recent article in Sports Med. (1st issue in 2018):

"One [doper] in two athletes is a big number, and suggests that doping is truly endemic in elite sport."

You guys need to stop pretending that doping is rare.