Sub 2 45 marathon feasibility

I would say that if you are able to run 20 at GMP three times, you have established too slow of a goal. My experience has been that 13 at marathon pace is a really tough challenge unless I do it in a half marathon race setting, in which case it is still tough, but doesn't always leave me asking "how the hell am I supposed to do that for twice as long?" the way it does outside of a race setting.

So if those workouts don't pan out as expected, don't beat yourself up over it, and if you manage to do them, then consider being a tad more aggressive in your racing (but account for the fact that you are racing a very tough course).

Thanks for the advice Smoove. I do think a full 20 at GMP especially on a course with rolling hills (+ likely warm weather) to simulate NYC’s hills may be too tough. So I am hoping to just run something averaging 5% above GMP with a few miles at faster than GMP finish. I would be satisfied to run about 13 miles at actual GMP.

I'm the type of person that tried to run 15 miles at MP in training and come up about 10-15 seconds per mile short, but come race day I usually go faster than the workout predicts, close to what I thought my MP should be. I'm sure it's all mental, but my point is everybody is different and you'll just have to race it and find out. 20@MP seems like too much and might leave you wrecked and put too much of a gap between that and your next hard effort (without injury). I'm no expert, but I would usually see 15 @ MP or perhaps 20@ MP+0:20/mi. Good luck.

Bump.

Bruin - how did your half go? Your workouts indicate you are in sub 2:45 shape and may even be in sub 2:40 shape.

Also bumping this. Would love to know where OP is at in their progression.

I ran a 1:16 for my half 4 weeks out from NYC. I am going for sub-2:45 at NYC if there is decent weather. I don’t think I am ready to go for sub-2:40 at this time.

Bruin1996 wrote:

I ran a 1:16 for my half 4 weeks out from NYC. I am going for sub-2:45 at NYC if there is decent weather. I don’t think I am ready to go for sub-2:40 at this time.

I've run 1:16 & 2:44-flat. I think I had a little more in the tank in the marathon given my build-up when I ran it. I also ran perfectly even splits. I think you should be feeling good about a sub-2:45. Your workouts always look so strong, more like someone training for sub-2:40 so maybe you'll surprise yourself. NYC is a blast! Have fun & save something for the last 10k of the course.

I just knocked my half PB down by 3 mins to mid 1:17s - currently running around 65 mpw - but looking to max at around 70 mpw before my marathon in January. Is that enough to knock out a sub 2:45? I've generally been better than predicted paces for longer distances. My 5k pb this summer was 17:30.

Thanks for the encouragement! Weather looks good for NYC so far so I will do my best to run even-effort at 2:45 and then speed up a bit in the last 10K if I am feeling good. I would really like to get that sub-2:45 for Berlin and Tokyo qualifying. I can then improve on my time at flatter, easier courses.

I wouldn't give up hope with your goal. When I started my current training cycle I was in about ~3:00 shape and had prs of 1:15/2:52. Now, 6 months later I have a good shot of going sub 2:30. Higher mileage seemed to be the trick for me (averaged over 70mpw). I'm not saying it is likely, but as you've seen in your last training cycles, a lot can happen in 4 months.

I think 1.23 puts you outside of the target time of 2.44.

I coach a few runners, one that I could use as comparison has ran several 2.44 marathons. Each time he ran a 2.44 his HM time in the lead up to the marathon was 1.17-1.19. Your HM time suggests you'll be somewhere between 2.50-2.55.

That said, I would need to know more about the training in the lead up to the HM. For example; if you did that off very low mileage / quality then you could make significant gains over the training cycle.

Female here. In my 30's. Fairly consistent marathon runner, just barely sub three hours off around 55 miles a week. Did 60 miles once or twice. Half marathons of 1:24-1:27 translated to 2:59 type marathons. Half marathon tune up races of 1:22 and 1:23 translated to a 2:54 marathon. I would suspect that higher mileage would have lead to a half marathon PR of maybe 1:21 or so and perhaps a marathon closer to 2:50.

The only thing I would say, as far as tweaking everyone else's advice/predictions, is that I think female runners skew longer distance... for instance many men who run my marathon times seem to run shorter races at much faster paces than I can even imagine running them. I think women don't slow down as much over the long haul (or don't speed up as dramatically when race distance is cut).

I know 1:16-1:17 type half marathon males who never broke 2:50. I'm pretty sure I could hit a 2:50 but I can't imagine EVER running a 1:17 half. That would put me in a whole different competitive class.

Bruin - I'm also running NYC on Sunday and aiming for

...less than 2:45 (though from Blue Corral 1, so might be stuck behind some folks) - wishing you the best of luck!

Great thread and quite relevant to me. I'm also doing NYC and aiming for a similar time (ideally

Great thread and quite relevant to me. I'm also doing NYC and aiming for a similar time (ideally

...

Good luck Bruin, 1:16 indicates a good chance at 2:45 and weather forecast looks perfect. Key on the course is to hold it together through the Bronx and to not let the 5th avenue hill break you. I never actually look up it, only down at the street, because it's so disheartening when you see how much of it is left.

Posts keep being cut off FFS. Anyway, hope it all comes together on race day, good luck everyone!