Shelby MF Houlihan - Unreal. She runs a 28.9 final 200 to PR by 4+ seconds and win Pre in 3:59.06!!

3 pages in and not a whiff of a suggestion that she might be doping!?

A 4 sec improvement, running a 3:59 with a last 800 in 2:03, 59 last 400 and 28.9 last 200 is mighty impressive, and suggests at least 3:57 flat ability.

Had that been a runner from any other country, then there would have been suggestions of doping in one of the first few posts.

When Muir ran 3:55 a few years ago, having already shown far more potential on the international circuit than Houlihan, many called foul.

I don’t like to be the one to first mention doping, and I confess to knowing very little about this lady, who I presume is completely clean, but I just thought it was worth commenting on the biased (from many, not all) towards American athletes on this site.

c7runner7 wrote:

Shelby will continue to run good 1500’s and 5k’s. But I predict her highest Olympic or Outdoor World Championship finish will come in the Steeplechase.

QFE

Shelby has the potential to be a sub-9 minute steepler. She could easily be the female Evan Jager. However, since two of her teammates are steeplers, I doubt she will ever attempt the event.

Deanouk wrote:

3 pages in and not a whiff of a suggestion that she might be doping!?

A 4 sec improvement, running a 3:59 with a last 800 in 2:03, 59 last 400 and 28.9 last 200 is mighty impressive, and suggests at least 3:57 flat ability.

Had that been a runner from any other country, then there would have been suggestions of doping in one of the first few posts.

When Muir ran 3:55 a few years ago, having already shown far more potential on the international circuit than Houlihan, many called foul.

I don’t like to be the one to first mention doping, and I confess to knowing very little about this lady, who I presume is completely clean, but I just thought it was worth commenting on the biased (from many, not all) towards American athletes on this site.

I'll probably get beat up for writing this but it looks like Shelby has lost a few pounds. She always seemed a few pounds heavier than ideal based upon seeing her midsection. In yesterday's race, you could see that she was leaner than before. Those few pounds do make a difference.

Deanouk wrote:

3 pages in and not a whiff of a suggestion that she might be doping!?

A 4 sec improvement, running a 3:59 with a last 800 in 2:03, 59 last 400 and 28.9 last 200 is mighty impressive, and suggests at least 3:57 flat ability.

Had that been a runner from any other country, then there would have been suggestions of doping in one of the first few posts.

When Muir ran 3:55 a few years ago, having already shown far more potential on the international circuit than Houlihan, many called foul.

I don’t like to be the one to first mention doping, and I confess to knowing very little about this lady, who I presume is completely clean, but I just thought it was worth commenting on the biased (from many, not all) towards American athletes on this site.

To someone across the Pond, an athlete like Shelby must seem like she comes from "nowhere" to run sub-4:00. To those of us who have followed her from high school, when she was showing ferocious potential (which was not over-developed in college going to the same school that gave us Desi Linden and Amy Cragg), none of this is a surprise.

Muir's progression is much more suspect by comparison, but without any suspicious tests or training affiliations she gets a pass for now. Shelby runs for one of two coaches in the U.S. that have produced the best ratio of international success/drug suspicions that exists out there (the other being Wetmore).

I guess the question is, what sub-4 women do you NOT suspect of doping currently?

Houlihan, Schweizer, and the NCAA record holder in the 10k, Lisa Kohl, all came from Iowa and made unbelievable improvements after HS. I don’t think it is doping. I thin it must be some combination of the culture and weather growing up that put them on a very unusual path to greatness. Simpson was born there also but she left at an earlier age so her greatness came on a bit sooner than the others.

I like Moroccan Runners wrote:

Rababe ARAFI also ran a PB ?

She's a very nice looking runner as well. I like her smoothness and style.

c7runner7 wrote:

I predict her highest Olympic or Outdoor World Championship finish will come in the Steeplechase.

For a number of reasons, she would not be anywhere near as good in the steeplechase, and trying to put her there would be a mistake.

[quote:

Shelby runs for one of two coaches in the U.S. that have produced the best ratio of international success/drug suspicions that exists out there (the other being Wetmore).

I guess the question is, what sub-4 women do you NOT suspect of doping currently?[/quote]

Which training group is she enrolled?

Who is her coach?

MV wrote:

Which training group is she enrolled?

Who is her coach?

She is part of Nike's Bowerman Track Club, coached by Jerry Schumacher.

Great stuff. Nice to see the AR drop again.

☝️How is Muir more suspect? I don't think you know what you're talking about.

I'm calling you out on this one wrote:

Usual Suspects wrote:

To someone across the Pond, an athlete like Shelby must seem like she comes from "nowhere" to run sub-4:00. To those of us who have followed her from high school, when she was showing ferocious potential (which was not over-developed in college going to the same school that gave us Desi Linden and Amy Cragg), none of this is a surprise.

Muir's progression is much more suspect by comparison, but without any suspicious tests or training affiliations she gets a pass for now.

☝️How is Muir more suspect? I don't think you know what you're talking about.

Look at the list of women who have run 3:55 or better and tell me there is no reason to be suspicious.

I actually believe Muir is likely clean, but I have no more evidence for that than anyone else has evidence that Houlihan is dirty. Of the two, Muir is at least slightly more suspicious as we are being asked to believe she is probably the fastest clean 1500 runner in history.

Former Iowa Great wrote:

Houlihan, Schweizer, and the NCAA record holder in the 10k, Lisa Kohl, all came from Iowa and made unbelievable improvements after HS. I don’t think it is doping. I thin it must be some combination of the culture and weather growing up that put them on a very unusual path to greatness. Simpson was born there also but she left at an earlier age so her greatness came on a bit sooner than the others.

Must be in the corn (don't tell the Paleo / Cross Fitters). This result is good for the sport and good for the future of American women's mid distance running, as Jenny is getting older and is likely moving up in distance. It will be interesting how they do head to head now that Houlihan is on Jenny's radar. She could try to employ Rowbury's tactics (sit on Jenny and try to outkick her as she did in her AR race). It's actually good advice as Wetmore's runners in general are very disciplined athletes (rarely running too deep into oxygen debt too early). It's the same strategy Frerich's used in her Olympic race with Coburn (another Schumacher athlete chasing after another Wetmore trained athlete (even though she is running for her husband now, who was also a Wetmore athlete).

I decided to come up with a list of the top female U.S. distance runners in recent years, and the college they attended:

Shalane-NC

Robury-ND

Huddle-ND

Sisson-Prov

Infeld-Gtwn

Simpson-CU

Coburn-CU

Hasay-OU

Cragg-ASU

Linden-ASU

and now for the tie-breaker at the top:

Houlihan-ASU

ASU! Go figure.

Rowbury - Duke

Blue Devils not Sun Devils wrote:

Rowbury - Duke

Thanks, I knew that at some point but conflated with Huddle somehow.

Usual Suspects wrote:

I'm calling you out on this one wrote:

☝️How is Muir more suspect? I don't think you know what you're talking about.

Look at the list of women who have run 3:55 or better and tell me there is no reason to be suspicious.

I actually believe Muir is likely clean, but I have no more evidence for that than anyone else has evidence that Houlihan is dirty. Of the two, Muir is at least slightly more suspicious as we are being asked to believe she is probably the fastest clean 1500 runner in history.

I looked at the list and #'s 1 thru 9 (sub-3:54) are the ones who look suspicious, IMO. Those 9 or so are several Chinese, one Russian and Dibaba. The Chinese times were set in the 90s EPO-era, where I heard there was some funny business going on with Coach Ming's runners. The Russian and Dibaba are highly suspicious (a fast Russian suspicious for doping - who would have thought. Lol).

There's nothing to see there with Muir...no reason for you or anyone else to be suspicious. 3:55 and change is about as good as it gets for a female clean 1500 meter runner. Any experienced coach would agree with me.

Your welcome...glad I could be of some service.

Deanouk wrote:

3 pages in and not a whiff of a suggestion that she might be doping!?

A 4 sec improvement, running a 3:59 with a last 800 in 2:03, 59 last 400 and 28.9 last 200 is mighty impressive, and suggests at least 3:57 flat ability.

Had that been a runner from any other country, then there would have been suggestions of doping in one of the first few posts.

When Muir ran 3:55 a few years ago, having already shown far more potential on the international circuit than Houlihan, many called foul.

I don’t like to be the one to first mention doping, and I confess to knowing very little about this lady, who I presume is completely clean, but I just thought it was worth commenting on the biased (from many, not all) towards American athletes on this site.

It is funny to look at the biases on here from time to time. Houlihan might well be the cleanest of clean and Muir's 3:55 is very impressive. But Muir doesn't have any shady connections while Houlihan is BTC, which is really the other half of NOP, and Jager is part of that group and according to Fancy bears he is more likely a doper (+++++) than Kiprop, Rupp, Mo, Hassan, Kiplagat and Keitany. So links to such-such can be made for anything and Houlihan may have just had a good day on her local track (no jet lag). What gets me is is Noah Lyles runs 19.69, that's 19.69! And you get howled at for being suspicious on here. USADA doesn't seem to know who Lyles is, but he is part of the IAAF's pool, while Houlihan is not in the testing pool but was tested 3 times last year by USADA or once every 121.6666 days. The entire process of the testing system needs overhauling, the testing pool should be a real time dynamic entity, based on a algorithm that tests a) people doing surreal performances (Bolt, Ayana, WvN, Dibaba, Kiprop, Schippers, Keitany) and b) those that make the biggest jumps to top tier performances measured by the IAAF tables e.g. if somebody is running 10.13 and then drops to 9.87 they should be red flagged for very regular testing AND if after regular testing they suddenly drop back to 10.13 I would suggest a likely doping sanctioning just like the blood passport sanctioning. And test these people regularly, ATP tested the top 20 some twenty times in 2017 including injured stars like Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka. USADA is wasting resources testing Ritz 14 times in 2017, he's past it and ain't going to be winning medals.

Didn’t know about the testing history of Houlihan or Lyles. Thanks for information. I’m still inclined to give both athletes benefit of doubt, and surely they must both now be part of the testing pool subject to random testing by the independent testing council?

I agree with pretty much all you have written.