blahhhh wrote:
calculo wrote:
theoretically, not factoring in "blowing up", various 1/2M openers for a 2"06-guy & estimate of 2nd half & predicted finish time
63'00 -> 2"06'00
62'30 -> 63'31 -> 2"06'01
62'00 -> 64'05 -> 2"06'05
61'30 -> 64'40 -> 2"06'10
61'00 -> 65'18 -> 2"06'18
60'30 -> 65'59 -> 2"06'29
60'00 -> 66'43 -> 2"06'43
remember, this is only physics, not accounting for the fast enough opener which woud cause a blow-up in 2nd half
however, it does indicate something possibly interesting :
i don't think rupp woud have any trouble going out in 62'00 & still hang on for something in low-2"06's
Those numbers seem strange
that's what physics says
What do you mean by not factoring in blowing up?
because this is scenario when guy knows he has gone out too fast to 1/2-way & runs 2nd half at the suggested required slower pace according to physics
it indicates even off extremely fast 1/2-way splits, the guy can still run in the 2"06's even off 60'00 opener providing he slows enough & surprisingly hold onto a time dipping into 2"06s
there are numerous anecdotal examples of guys going out in 62+, perhaps even into 61's & holding onto a 2"05/2"'06
we assume they "blew-up" in 2nd half but in fact they just slowed according to the physics to near the time they probably coudn't have run much faster off even-pace
And how can it be that the estimated second half is 66:43 when someone capable of 2:06:00 goes out in 60:00?
physics says it's possible providing your 1/2M ability that day is 59'00 - 59'30 or better
It just seems weird
not according to physics
And false
wrong
you don't follow the sport closely enough
you haven't considered enough anecdotal splits
plenty in past have gone 62+/64+ or even 62+/65+
There are some 2:06 runners who couldn't run 60:00 for a half or had to go all out to achieve this
learn to read
i said guy with 59'00 - 59'30 ability on the day
of course therefore they can split 60'00
For those there isn't happening a second half at all (or maybe in 1:30 hours^^)
so why use wrong examples ?
what part of 59'00 - 59'30 intrinsic ability did you not comprehend ?
So the numbers don't really help
they do if you think hard enough