Beautiful Day wrote:
snow blow wrote:If you follow the sport at all, you'll find that 2:09 has almost always been a competitive time at Boston/NYC/Olympics.
Yeah, I was only standing at the finish line when Rupp's coach ran a 2:08!
OK so you know that 2:09 has been competitive most years. Why'd you ask your initial question?
Diagonal Crossing wrote:
2019- No marathons. It'd be awesome if he made US xc team and placed respectfully at world xc just to squash the rupp-certified blather. Thats not going to happen but 2019 should basically be a red shirt year for Rupp with random 10ks, half marathons, etc. Absolutely no reason to go to Qatar for world's in any event.
2020 OLY Trials- only real concern is making it to starting line healthy-
2020 Tokyo- This is the race that matters. Win it and he is an American hero. Anything less and he's just a fast white guy.
2021 Eugene World Champs Marathon- Safety race for world gold and fitting "farewell" race.
After that Rupp can pick and choose races as he pleases as the old lion of US running.
In 2019, I find it hard to imagine Rupp staying under the radar for the entire year - I could see him doing Tokyo early that year as a test run for 2020 at a minimum. That would be interesting.
I believe that he will run a privately paced* time trial at the Rotterdam marathon.
* i.e. - Nike supported
They will mirror the breaking 2 theme as closely as possible without going over the line...
And he will run 2:03:55
Then he can give Boston or NY a shot before retiring after the 2020 Olympic Games.
Sources at Nike are telling me that Nike is planning on having him take part in next years Breaking2 project. Not Rotterdam, Not Boston, Not London.
Nike realizes they have a huge opportunity with the American sports audience and will be widely marketing this attempt. They realize that while his PR really isn't anywhere close to many others and he probably doesn't even really have the ability to go Sub2, the American media is going to make a huge deal behind this and that Nike will great exposure (think $).
Will Nike call it Breaking 2:09?
Why does nobody think he's going to defend his Chicago title next year? I would think his appearance fee potential here as an American and the defending champ would be greater than what he could get from NYC. If I were him I would do London in the spring and go for a fast time, then defend the Chicago title. Back to Boston in spring 2019.
Spring 2018 - London
Fall 2018 - Chicago
Spring 2019 - Boston
Fall 2019 - No marathon (some shorter races before prepping for OT)
Winter 2020 - Olympic Trials
Summer 2020 - Olympics
Fall 2020 - NYC (the 2020 Olympics is a little earlier than 2016, NYC is almost 3 full months later and if he wins another Olympic medal the earnings potential is too high to pass up)
Summer 2021 - World Championships Marathon in Eugene
After the 2021 Worlds I bet he retires, or if he hasn't won Boston yet maybe he runs that in spring 2022 and them hangs 'em up.
That would be nice if Rupp went for London or Berlin, but you can't order the right weather. At least in Boston/NYC/Chicago/Olympics, the primary goal is the win and not a specific time.
So if Rupp trains to run for a 2:04 in London and the weather turns out to be 75 with a blistering sun, and the leaders finish in brutal 2:08+, what's the point?
Nothing Rupp does will silence the skeptics. Jealousy is a hell of a drug.
My plan for Rupp wrote:
If Rupp wants to cement his reputation, he needs to run a fast course against deep competition.
So the answer is London in 2018. It's a fast course and has the deepest competition anywhere. Ryan Hall ran 2:06:17 in London for 5th place. If Rupp ran faster than Hall in London, it would silence the skeptics who think Rupp is dodging top competition.
Rupp has already run Boston and Boston doesn't have the depth of London and is a fluky non-record eligible course. The only thing going for Boston would be a bigger payday for Rupp than London, but as a running fan, I don't care about that. The field in Tokyo is softer than London and not as fast. I would say Dubai, but it's purely a time trial and he would get smoked by a no-name Ethiopian 18-year old and wouldn't get paid much, so there would be no point in that.
Then in the fall of 2018, run Berlin for the time or New York for the competition/tradition/payday.
Beautiful Day wrote:
Will Nike call it Breaking 2:09?
Oh wow, the ultimate troll post. 9.5/10
jtrb23 wrote:
Why does nobody think he's going to defend his Chicago title next year? I would think his appearance fee potential here as an American and the defending champ would be greater than what he could get from NYC.
From a money standpoint, you might be right. Part of the issue is that Nike sponsors Chicago, while adidas sponsors Boston and NB sponsors New York. I still expect the NYRR would give him a big appearance fee.
From a sport standpoint, running NY in 2018 would be the better for the sport than repeating Chicago and would likely be against better competition than Chicago. Of the the 3 American World Marathon Majors, Chicago is usually #3 in depth. It's the fastest course, but without pacers you see winning times like yesterday at 2:09 so it doesn't have the appeal of fast times any more. And running in Berlin in 2018 with pacers and what will likely be the fastest runners in the world would likely get him a better time than Chicago.
i think you're right about Bostonbut London and Berlin would be awesome to get a fast time.traveling for a marathon through many time zones really sucks, especially with kids. i don't blame him.now, as the winner of Chicago, his price tag went up too so he can stay domestic and get cash money.whatever he does, i'm excited for him. he's never really failed as a runner in any distance. just keeps finding success. consistent
Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:
it will be ok wrote:London or Tokyo in the spring, Berlin in the fall.
It will be Boston.
My plan for Rupp wrote:
jtrb23 wrote:Why does nobody think he's going to defend his Chicago title next year? I would think his appearance fee potential here as an American and the defending champ would be greater than what he could get from NYC.
From a money standpoint, you might be right. Part of the issue is that Nike sponsors Chicago, while adidas sponsors Boston and NB sponsors New York. I still expect the NYRR would give him a big appearance fee.
From a sport standpoint, running NY in 2018 would be the better for the sport than repeating Chicago and would likely be against better competition than Chicago. Of the the 3 American World Marathon Majors, Chicago is usually #3 in depth. It's the fastest course, but without pacers you see winning times like yesterday at 2:09 so it doesn't have the appeal of fast times any more. And running in Berlin in 2018 with pacers and what will likely be the fastest runners in the world would likely get him a better time than Chicago.
Chicago course SUCKS; boring, flat AND slow, about two dozen spectators TOTAL... is there any defense of this being, in fact, a "better" event than the oft maligned Flying Pig?
Rupp in NYC would be interesting; does he have the balls to race it?
Old Man Runner wrote:
Nike realizes they have a huge opportunity with the American sports audience and will be widely marketing this attempt.
Nike would make a better impression sponsoring a slam dunk contest.
This is running. Juice some guys up so the blood is running a little less dense than sludge, hope no one dies of cardiac arrest in their sleep and set another impossible time at an event no one will watch.
Turkey Trot 5k Marathon sprint
I would go for wins. NYC, then back to Boston. After that go for a time trial win in London.
Banana Bread wrote:
Years ago I dreamed of Bekele and Tadese fighting till the finish of a marathon in a really fast time.
You are the only person who had this dream since Tadese's first 'thon a million years ago, but ok.
I would rather see Tadese and Bekele actually fight AT the finish. Like just go at it. Watching two elite runners trying to fight would be hilarious.
Nike Breaking 2:06 in Talladega Superspeedway
My plan for Rupp wrote:
jtrb23 wrote:Why does nobody think he's going to defend his Chicago title next year? I would think his appearance fee potential here as an American and the defending champ would be greater than what he could get from NYC.
From a money standpoint, you might be right. Part of the issue is that Nike sponsors Chicago, while adidas sponsors Boston and NB sponsors New York. I still expect the NYRR would give him a big appearance fee.
From a sport standpoint, running NY in 2018 would be the better for the sport than repeating Chicago and would likely be against better competition than Chicago. Of the the 3 American World Marathon Majors, Chicago is usually #3 in depth. It's the fastest course, but without pacers you see winning times like yesterday at 2:09 so it doesn't have the appeal of fast times any more. And running in Berlin in 2018 with pacers and what will likely be the fastest runners in the world would likely get him a better time than Chicago.
Running NYC in 2018 wouldn't be any better for the sport. The general public doesn't think there's any difference between the two - both are just marathons in big cities that are usually won by Africans. Unless you're a running junkie you don't know the difference between the competition, and Chicago's field this year was/is better than New York's anyways. Both races are on national TV on Sunday mornings during football season, so media coverage is roughly the same. Rupp running either one over the other is going to change nothing for the status of distance running in the US. Not many people have successfully defended a major marathon title recently; I think it's an attractive option.
Valencia