Was in the other Tesla thread.
The chemicals inside battery cells can be corrosive and flammable, said Karl Brauer, executive publisher for Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book. “Electric vehicles are not more prone to fire, but batteries can burn hotter fires that are harder to extinguish,” he said. “Once there is a fire and you melt the battery pack, chemicals come out and when those chemicals come out, the fire can start, even without a spark.”
qw wrote:
What many of so called experts does not understand is that Tesla does not only produce cars but they develop a bunch of new technologies that are far ahead in the industry. Autopilot, batteries, electric components to name a few. They already have patents for technologies that other companies in the market does not have and they sell these technologies for profit (BMW for example). And that is not it. When the age of oil comes to an end (and it will happen much sooner than you think since for exmaple Norway and Belgium has already restricted sales of new gasoline powered cars starting with 2025 with many to follow) Tesla will be the leading car maker in the world. In everything. Technology. Experience. Market share. So like you or not Elon Musk is at least two steps ahead.
Ha ha - you think BMW is going to license Tesla's autopilot? Don't drive behind fire trucks!
is how you know it's time to short a stock...
S. Canaday wrote:
I think I'm going to buy some more Tesla stock just because of this thread.
Bitcoin fascinated me about 3-4 years ago...thought I was too late to game then....should've bought....
To justify the stock's current value, they'd have to be selling a billion cars by the end of next year.
I do love their cars, but I wouldn't buy Tesla stock with my worst enemy's money. It is not going to end well.
LOL at all the idiots on here who think they're financial analysts.....
Talk about being wrong. Tesla shares are up 40% in the last ~2 months.. so many people were wrong
Lolattheidiots wrote:
LOL at all the idiots on here who think they're financial analysts.....
Talk about being wrong. Tesla shares are up 40% in the last ~2 months.. so many people were wrong
Failed math class did ya?
With his street low TSLA price target of $93/share, Vertical Group's Gordon Johnson has rightfully earned himself the nickname of most bearish Tesla analyst on Wall Street, and according to some, Johnson was instrumental in facilitating today's bizarre $30 intraday swing in TSLA's stock price from a 6% spike at the open on the "surprise" news the company had "hit" its 5000 Model 3 quota, to a confounding 3% drop shortly after noon.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Johnson expressed numerous concerns about the company, mostly about its continued cash burn: "If they run out of cash, the stock will fall quickly. We think that is around the corner." But more apropos to today's Q2 delivery release, Johnson questioned whether some cars that left the factory were counted as produced but still needed further work prior to consumer delivery, the so-called "factory gated", whose interpretation has prompted a mini scandal within the Teslarati on twitter.
1. Using FactSet numbers, Consensus was calling for 2Q18 TSLA Model 3 sales of 27.980K units, and total sales of 51.120K units; TSLA reported Model 3 sales of 18.440 units (a 34% shortfall) and total sales of 40.740 units (a 20% shortfall); stated differently, this represents Model 3 demand of just 1.418K cars/week in 2Q18; consequently, as we’ve stressed, as TSLA runs through its backlog of Model 3 reservations, we believe the company will become demand constrained rather than supply constrained (we expect this to occur at some point in 4Q18/1Q19 – see attached spreadsheet); stated differently, despite all the focus on Model 3 cars produced/week by the media today, we stress to our readers that just because TSLA makes a Model 3 car – with competition coming and buyers tired of “waiting” – does not mean demand for that car exists.
2. TSLA mentioned that it reached 5,031 Model 3 cars of “factory gated” production in the last week of June; while the company said it has used the “factory gated” terminology all along, we were not able to find this term in any SEC filings or public transcripts; however, looking to Linkedin, it seems “factory gated” may mean cars that require further testing and quality inspection upon leaving the factory floor (Exhibit 1) – this would mean these cars are likely not “full production vehicles” in the traditional sense of auto industry terminology;
3. Excluding the 5,031 cars TSLA produced in the last week of June (i.e., before its “boost week" – link), the weekly output rate of Model 3 cars over the first 84 days of 2Q18, based on TSLA’s reported numbers , was 1,962/week – i.e., (28,578 - 5,031 = 23,547; 23,547 ÷ 84 = 280.32; 280.32 × 7 = 1,962 Model 3 cars/week of production); surprisingly, 1,962 Model 3 cars produced/week in the first 84 days of 2Q18 is ACTUALLY below the 2,000 Model 3/week production rate TSLA highlighted in its 1Q18 production report published 4/3/18 for the first week of 2Q18 (yes, you heard that right) –; furthermore, in yet another massive miss to intra-quarter guidance provided by Elon Musk via Twitter (for which it seems there is no penalty for being wrong), the avg. rate of 1,962 Model 3 cars produced/week leading up to the last week of June 2018 is also materially below the 3,000-to-4,000 Model 3 cars/week of production Elon Musk noted TSLA would achieve in May following a brief shutdown in April;
4. TSLA’s net reservations were listed at 420K cars as of today (7/2/18), while they were listed at 455K Aug/17, and “above 450K” May/18; additionally, to date, TSLA has delivered 28.386K Model 3 cars; thus, as we warned last week, and as TSLA management told us, new orders have essentially been 0 for ~1 year now (i.e., no new reservations) – due, according to TSLA, to long lead-times to get the car; as such, when considering net reservations have been flat at ~455K cars since 8/2/17, as well as TSLA’s comment to us last week that new orders for Model 3 cars have been nonexistent for roughly a year, we believe today’s data confirms lackluster new reservation demand for Model 3 cars for some time now;
5. When subtracting total Model 3 cars delivered (i.e., 28.386K) from total Model 3 cars produced (i.e., 41.029K) one arrives at 12.643K Model 3 cars “in transit”; be that as it may, when comparing this number to TSLA’s reported Model 3 cars in transit as of 2Q18 of 11.166K, it seems there are ~1,477 excess Model 3 cars unaccounted for (Exhibit 2); while Elon Musk has said the numbers can be off by 0.5%, this is a 13% gap; while we cannot say with certainty what these “unaccounted” cars represent, it seems to reason that they are comprised of production cars requiring re-works sent to delivery centers (which could also suggest Model 3 cars produced/week may be a bit overstated); and
6. Based on our analysis, there were roughly 175 less Model S/X vehicles in transit at the end of 2Q18 vs. 1Q18, but >9K more Model 3s were in transit, meaning just under $500mn in extra finished goods inventory (i.e., cash burn) – assuming a Model 3 ASP of ~$55K/car and Model S/X ASP of ~$105K/car; while this will be partially offset by TSLA’s offer to configure to all of its Model 3 ~420K net reservation holders last week – at $2.5K in additional configuration costs, assuming every one configured (which is highly unlikely, as we believe the bulk of Model 3 reservation holders are buyers seeking the $35K/car option), this would be $1.05bn in additional cash inflows – we still expect TSLA to display another sizeable cash burn in 2Q18 (when factoring in EBIT losses ~$600mn/qtr, as well as ~$150mn in interest expense and $450mn in depreciation).
We expect TSLA’s 2Q18 earnings report to be a downside catalysts for the shares. We would be adding to short positions today with TSLA’s 2Q18 production report now out of the way. We maintain our SELL rating and $93/share year-end 2019 price target.
Tesla Compared To Theranos After Musk Halted Critical Brake Test To Boost Output
musk success has little to with entrepreneurship and free market.
musk is financed by billions in government subsidy.
the private funding comes from the hype machine.
musk too has bailed on his financers, who have sinister motives.
musk has come forward with statements against the system that feeds his empire.
perhaps musk is a hero at the end of the day.
As I’ve studied Tesla more closely, I’ve come to realize that Elon Musk appears to be running a Ponzi Scheme disguised as an auto-manufacturer; where he has to keep unveiling new products, many of which will never come to market, in order to raise new capital (equity/debt/customer deposits) to keep the scheme alive. The question has always been; when will Tesla collapse?
http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2018/07/04/tesla-new-theranos-curious-hitler-twist
Sell sell sell!
The FT reports that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has built a significant stake in Tesla - the latest bold bet by the state fund overseen by powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.
https://www.ft.com/content/73b700dc-9a2d-11e8-ab77-f854c65a4465Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) built the undisclosed stake of between 3 and 5 per cent of the electric vehicle maker’s shares this year, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Interestingly, The FT reports that PIF initially approached Musk about purchasing newly issued shares but Musk reportedly rebuffed the offer - perhaps anxious of the perception of further dilution and the promises he made of the need for more capital.
Note, however, that Tesla gets $0 from this secondary market investment - at a time when the carmaker is losing a record amount of money.
Tesla shares are jumping on the news...
Why do so many people not understand what a Ponzi Scheme is?
27% of the float sold short currently.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that he is considering taking Tesla private when shares in the electric carmaker hit $420. The news comes as the Saudi government revealed a huge stake in the company.
“Am considering taking Tesla private at $420,” Musk tweeted on Tuesday, adding that he had “funding secured.”
https://www.tesla.com/blog/taking-tesla-private
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-07/tesla-jumps-saudis-reveal-2-billion-stake