Hypothetical: Laura Muir 100:1 odds to win the 1500m in London, $1000 minimum bet. Would you take it?

Perhaps you are forgetting that Muir actually LOST that race to Rowbury. So Muir did not rise to the occasion either.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps7JDQ_QabY

Kipyegon may also improve much like Muir, considering that she is still young. She also can change her gears better than Muir, something important if the pace is slow.

Queens Queens wrote:

Kipyegon may also improve much like Muir, considering that she is still young. She also can change her gears better than Muir, something important if the pace is slow.

Indeed. Portsea is thinking about things in a vacuum. But that should be expected from a Muir fanatic.

It will be a great race between Muir, Kipyegon, and Dibaba. Kipyegon will probably want to try to over take on the final straight, Dibaba will probably try to kick from 400 instead of 700 noy repeating her mistake at the olympics, and Muirs best chance would be to take it out hard. It will be fun to watch it unfold.

Union Jackass wrote:

Queens Queens wrote:

Kipyegon may also improve much like Muir, considering that she is still young. She also can change her gears better than Muir, something important if the pace is slow.

Indeed. Portsea is thinking about things in a vacuum. But that should be expected from a Muir fanatic.

Actually, everything points to Muir being one of the three favs for gold.

Dibaba is a class above at her best with 3:50 but can be shaky with pressure on and hasn't been in her best form for a while. Kipyegon is an enormous talent with great change of pace and won the big one last year. Muir is maybe the third best if everything goes perfectly for everyone - you'd expect her to beat Simpson, Hassan, Obiri etc these days - but with the home crowd and the thorough back up that the British federation offers to medal prospects I'd say she's most likely to be at her best on the day.

less than zero wrote:

Union Jackass wrote:

Indeed. Portsea is thinking about things in a vacuum. But that should be expected from a Muir fanatic.

Actually, everything points to Muir being one of the three favs for gold.

Dibaba is a class above at her best with 3:50 but can be shaky with pressure on and hasn't been in her best form for a while. Kipyegon is an enormous talent with great change of pace and won the big one last year. Muir is maybe the third best if everything goes perfectly for everyone - you'd expect her to beat Simpson, Hassan, Obiri etc these days - but with the home crowd and the thorough back up that the British federation offers to medal prospects I'd say she's most likely to be at her best on the day.

Plus Muir is proving her fantastic form with her all time level runs over 1000m and 3000m.

Kipyegon is unproven in 2017 so far really, but then she might be about to go out and win the World Cross.

Dibaba says she's running 5000/10000 and she's been less convincing than Muir.

less than zero wrote:

Union Jackass wrote:

Indeed. Portsea is thinking about things in a vacuum. But that should be expected from a Muir fanatic.

Actually, everything points to Muir being one of the three favs for gold.... with the home crowd and the thorough back up that the British federation offers to medal prospects I'd say she's most likely to be at her best on the day.

...Or fold under pressure... though it'd be great to see a race in which all of the above mentioned make the 1500 a fast gutsy race.

As far as things currently stand, I would rate Muir on the same level as Rowbury, Simpson Obiri and Hassan. But yes, Dibaba and Kipeygon are currently ahead of the rest.

Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on the athlete) indoor form isn't the end all be all as it relates to an athlete's chances 5 months down the line.

A lot can happen in 150 days.

Union Jackass wrote:

less than zero wrote:

Actually, everything points to Muir being one of the three favs for gold.... with the home crowd and the thorough back up that the British federation offers to medal prospects I'd say she's most likely to be at her best on the day.

...Or fold under pressure... though it'd be great to see a race in which all of the above mentioned make the 1500 a fast gutsy race.

As far as things currently stand, I would rate Muir on the same level as Rowbury, Simpson Obiri and Hassan. But yes, Dibaba and Kipeygon are currently ahead of the rest.

Dibaba is the only athlete of those named that has any history of struggling to perform under pressure.

Did Muir fold under the pressure of the home crowd expectation at the London Diamond League last year when she won in a national record? What about at the Birmingham Indoor GP this year when she won in an area record? Do you think Mo Farah's struggles in front of his home crowds at the 2012 Olympics will be playing on his mind? Or Jess Ennis's choke?

Forget this hypothetical, SkyBet have Ghirmay Gebrselassie as 22-1 (TENTH FAV?) to win the London Marathon.

His marathon form: second at 2015 Hamburg Marathon, won 2015 World Champs, fourth at 2016 London Marathon, fourth at 2016 Olympics, won 2016 NYC Marathon.

You're welcome.

less than zero wrote:

Union Jackass wrote:

...Or fold under pressure... though it'd be great to see a race in which all of the above mentioned make the 1500 a fast gutsy race.

As far as things currently stand, I would rate Muir on the same level as Rowbury, Simpson Obiri and Hassan. But yes, Dibaba and Kipeygon are currently ahead of the rest.

Dibaba is the only athlete of those named that has any history of struggling to perform under pressure.

Did Muir fold under the pressure of the home crowd expectation at the London Diamond League last year when she won in a national record? What about at the Birmingham Indoor GP this year when she won in an area record? Do you think Mo Farah's struggles in front of his home crowds at the 2012 Olympics will be playing on his mind? Or Jess Ennis's choke?

If she had done any of those things at an Olympics or World Championships, you'd have a point.

Give her a chance to prove herself in a big meet is all I'm saying.

Union Jackass wrote:

portsea57 wrote:

But this coming summer...

....thi

(((((((CHHHOKED)))))))

A fool is one who talks up a runner with virtually nothing of significance to show for.

Like I mentioned earlier, she had to have been in sub 2:00 shape to be able to run 3:55, so miss me with that nonsense. This was certainly not Muir's first go at a major championship, so there's absolutely no excuse other than (((((((SHE CHOKED))))))

She was the faster CHOKER of 2016 and until I see otherwise, she'll likely be the fastest CHOKER in 2017.

"...those games came a year too soon" and I'm the fool, lmao!!!

You seem a touch hysterical.

((((((HYSTERICAL)))))))

Why all this excitement for Muir? Another white hope? Until she proves she can consistently compete with Genzebe and Faith there is no point in over hyping her

Union Jackass wrote:

Give her a chance to prove herself in a big meet is all I'm saying.

I understand what you're saying but I just think you are overestimating the possibility of the big stage making her performance below par and underestimating the possibility of a home stage inspiring her to greater heights. None of this is an exact science but "home advantage" in sport is a very persistent phenomenon. Yes, she could feel the pressure of the big stage, but then Kipyegon has the pressure of being Olympic champion and the big hope of Kenya.

Poof wrote:

Why all this excitement for Muir? Another white hope? Until she proves she can consistently compete with Genzebe and Faith there is no point in over hyping her

She simply can't if they're in full on Italian style Olympic mode.

What does Crooked Flagpole predict?

I hope Muir does well, and can become a true threat, but right now she is not on their level.

The best you can say is she has a slightly faster 1500 PR than Faith. But her mile PR is 3 seconds slower than Kipyegon and not even in the same universe as Genzebe. And Faith is actually younger than Muir.

At 100-1, sure. Definitely +EV.

Lay the bet, think of Fermin Cacho, pray for a crazy (but not totally crazy) result!