The Olympic Marathon Trials are One Month From Today: Who You Got? - 3 pm ET live podcast!

With Rupp and Derrick, I think it is them 2 with Chelenga.

Without those 2:

Ward

Chelenga

Ritz

Betting against all debut runners. Yes that includes Rupp.

I think Jake Riley makes the team. I'm hoping for that since I coached him during his freshman high school cross country season. Still remember him at 5ft2 or so at the Washington State Meet. A tough gritty competitor.

Having run a fast marathon 2.13?, but not too many will give him the confidence without the dread.

I think the men's race is going to be quite tight and the outcome will be

1. Chelanga

2. Derrick

3. Puskedra

Changing of the guards kind of race on the men's side (some get nostalgic...I look forward to those types of results). It's also quite dense 1-5 so I could see this one being quite a bit faster then we are used to.

For the women, I don't think it will be nearly as tight:

1. Shalane

2. Goucher

3. Desi

Quite few might question the Goucher pick (specially over Desi), but she's showing some really decent fitness lately. I saw her training in some nasty conditions last weekend between Boulder when I was heading out there to do some fat biking(rolling hills out there all above 5,000 feet, ice and snow on the roads). She running about 6:00 pace and made it look VERY easy. Pulled up Strava later, and I saw her when she was at about mile 25 of a 27-mile run. Kara might be about at her best right now, and I don't think Desi at her best would beat Kara at her best (and It also sounds like Desi is not at her best).

Back on the nostalgic note...can't wait to see some women from the US really break through on the marathon. Neely might be okay, but I'd love to see Abby D, Molly, Emily Sisson Jordan Hassay, and a few others move up sooner then later. I think all of those athletes have the potential to be better than Dena.

Emma Bates should also jump to marathon soon.

Men's side:

Geez, it is so hard to pick top three. So many guys have a legitimate shot. It's almost like Powerball - a total crap shoot. I'll go with (in no particular order):

Rupp (if running)

Meb

Ritz

Chelanga (but I really, really want hometown hero Ryan Vail)

Women's side seems more clear cut to me:

Flanagan

Hastings-Cragg

Desi

I'll be out there on the sidelines. Should we awesome races to watch!!!

4 years ago the experts told me that Lisa Uhl was going to kill it in the marathon. 4 years before that it was Amy Yoder Begley and 4 years before that it was Kate O'Neill.

This board knows so little about the marathon it is ridiculous.

Remember how great Solinsky was going to be in the marathon? How about Bob Kennedy?

The track mind usually does not translate to the marathon.

For context, the top men's qualifying marks as of today. Several times are 18+ mos old. Estrada and Rupp have

History lesson 101 wrote:

The track mind usually does not translate to the marathon.

Somebody tell world record holders Tergat, Geb, and Bekele.

Contenders:

Rupp, Derrick, Meb, Ritz.

Rupp can hang back and be the last guy to make a move for the win.

Now the pace may be slow from the gun keeping more guys in the race. That could be trouble if one of the Cinderellas starts believing and makes a move and separates from the pack. Meb is also capable of something like this. It would be risky if one of the new comers went for it early because they may go too hard and blow up in the last few kilometers.

It's going to be exciting no matter what happens.

For context, the top men's qualifying marks as of today. Several times are 18+ mos old. Estrada and Rupp have sub-62min half qualifiers.

Meb Keflezighi 2:08:37 A 118th B.A.A. Boston Marathon Boston MA USA 4/21/2014

Dathan Ritzenhein 2:09:45 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/13/2013

Luke Puskedra 2:10:24 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/11/2015

Jeffrey Eggleston 2:10:52 A Gold Coast Airport Marathon Brisbane AUS 7/6/2014

Ryan Vail 2:10:57 A Virgin Money London Marathon London UK 4/13/2014

Bobby Curtis 2:11:20 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/12/2014

Elkanah Kibet 2:11:31 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/11/2015

Fernando Cabada 2:11:36 A BMW Berlin Marathon Berlin GER 9/28/2014

Nick Arciniaga 2:11:47 A 118th B.A.A. Boston Marathon Boston MA USA 4/21/2014

Matt Tegenkamp 2:12:28 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/13/2013

Matthew Llano 2:12:28 A 42nd BMW Berlin Marathon Berlin GER 9/27/2015

Josphat Boit 2:12:52 A 118th B.A.A. Boston Marathon Boston MA USA 4/21/2014

Aaron Braun 2:12:54 A Chevron Houston Marathon Houston TX USA 1/18/2015

Shadrack Biwott 2:12:55 A Frankfurt Marathon Frankfurt GER 10/26/2014

Jared Ward 2:12:56 A ASICS LA Marathon Los Angeles CA USA 3/15/2015

The top women's qualifying marks as of today. Huddle, Conley, and Spence-Gracey have sub-70min half qualifiers.

Shalane Flanagan 2:21:14 A BMW Berlin Marathon Berlin GER 9/28/2014

Desiree Linden 2:23:54 A 118th B.A.A. Boston Marathon Boston MA USA 4/21/2014

Amy Cragg 2:27:03 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/12/2014

Deena Kastor 2:27:47 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/11/2015

Serena Burla 2:28:01 A TCS Amsterdam Marathon Amsterdam NETHERLANDS 10/20/2013

Laura Thweatt 2:28:23 A TCS New York City Marathon New York NY USA 11/1/2015

Annie Bersagel 2:28:29 A METRO GROUP Marathon Dusseldorf Dusseldorf GERMANY 4/26/2015

Kellyn Taylor 2:28:40 A Chevron Houston Marathon Houston TX USA 1/18/2015

Lauren Kleppin 2:28:48 A ASICS LA Marathon Los Angeles CA USA 3/9/2014

Rebecca Wade 2:30:41 A California International Marathon Sacramento CA USA 12/8/2013

Sara Hall 2:31:14 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/11/2015

Adriana Nelson 2:31:15 A 118th B.A.A. Boston Marathon Boston MA USA 4/21/2014

Clara Santucci 2:31:39 A Bank of America Chicago Marathon Chicago IL USA 10/13/2013

The race will be shown live on NBC. NBC will also stream in live.http://www.usatf.org/News/NBC-SPORTS-to-present-unprecedented-live-coverage-.aspx

slo-twitch wrote:

I'm going Ritz as a lock and Meb as a likely top 3, but 3rd spot too tough to call. I'm really starting to think that Rupp could show up. Otherwise it's wide open- Ward, Pennel (beat Ward head to head at Twin Cities 15 months ago), Derrick?, Chelanga, Puskedra, Kibet. I won't entirely rule out Ryan Vail either

What is the streaming situation? Hopefully USATF will have a live stream of the race

With Rupp:

Rupp

Ritz

Curtis

Without Rupp:

Ritz

Curtis

Meb

Wild Cards--Ward/ Riley/ Kibet (I think they all might make it)

Talented Wild Cards but... first timers don't know what is going to hit them--Estrada/ Chelanga/ Ritchie

I wish, but won't:

Puksedra--great runner, but 2 in a row within 4 months rest is too much

Vail-too beat up

Derrick--too green and not there yet

llano-same as Puksedra.

For same reason as KG, I choose Rupp.

I saw him or someone that looked exactly like him doing a long run many miles away from downtown after his half marathon win. This runner was dressed with dark Nike gear and wearing either a pollen or altitude mask.

Could this could this be some new cutting edge training? Do a half marathon and then a slow long run with altitude gear?

FloTrack also reported on his post race workout, but unsure if that was the same workout?

Of course, the above could have been someone else and 10k training ain't so different than the marathon.

Ward, Meb, Puskedra. I love Ritz but he struggles to stay healthy

if he suits up he and Alberto must have some sort of evidence he'd be good

I've done a bunch of research, some of which supports the notion that Rupp could be good at the marathon. One thing I found is that Rupp is better than every guy at the trials, by a lot, at every distance up to the half marathon. He's insanely good at running, and he's in his prime. To him, the US championships, and the competitions he faces there, have become sort of an afterthought to world championship finals. Also, he seems to perform well on any day of the week, and even better on TUE. Maybe some of those minor details will give him a shot.

My picks, in no particular order:

Meb Keflezighi

Luke Puskedra

Elkanah Kibet

Rupp

Meb

Ritz

History lesson 101 wrote:

The track mind usually does not translate to the marathon.

Let me see that 'Thon wrote:

Somebody tell world record holders Tergat, Geb, and Bekele.