Arne Gabius German Record 2:08:32

ardent buoyer wrote:

How does a 13:12 guy become a 2:08 marathoner?

I know folks on LRC hate the Mcmillan running calculator (and prefer IAAF tables or JK Running Calculator). That said, if you type in 13:12 in the Mcmillan running calculator you get 2:08:37 for the Marathon. Arne ran 5 seconds faster than that. In other words - it aligns perfectly.

I believe he would have been able to run 2:07:45 with better pacing, which equals 13:07. Still, nothing out of this world.

Having followed his career, I'd argue his ceiling is 13:05/27:10/2:07:00

German Runner wrote:

ardent buoyer wrote:

How does a 13:12 guy become a 2:08 marathoner?

I know folks on LRC hate the Mcmillan running calculator (and prefer IAAF tables or JK Running Calculator). That said, if you type in 13:12 in the Mcmillan running calculator you get 2:08:37 for the Marathon. Arne ran 5 seconds faster than that. In other words - it aligns perfectly.

I believe he would have been able to run 2:07:45 with better pacing, which equals 13:07. Still, nothing out of this world.

Having followed his career, I'd argue his ceiling is 13:05/27:10/2:07:00

But how many Americans can match that conversion? How many sub-13:20 guys do we have, vs. how many sub-2:10 marathoners? What are the 5k PRs of our sub-2:10 marathoners?

adsfasfasdf wrote:

But how many Americans can match that conversion? How many sub-13:20 guys do we have, vs. how many sub-2:10 marathoners? What are the 5k PRs of our sub-2:10 marathoners?

Different people, different strengths. Plus, running 2:08 may be easier if you can follow a 2:06/2:07 group, compared to leading the race.

Do you want to calculate average conversion rates?

Ignoring Boston, I find for sub-2:10 and their 5000 PRs:

Khalid Khannouchi - 2:05:38 - 13:44 (?)

Ryan Hall - 2:06:17 - 13:16

Dathan Ritzenhein - 2:07:47 - 12:56

Abdi Abdirahman - 2:08:56 - 13:13

Alberto Salazar - 2:09:21 - 13:12

Dick Beardsley - 2:09:37 - ?

Alan Culpepper - 2:09:41 - 13:26

Ken Martin - 2:09:38 - ?

And now from Germany

Arne Gabius - 2:08:32 - 13:13

Jörg Peter - 2:08:47 - ?

Michael Heilmann - 2:09:03 - ?

Christoph Herle - 2:09:23 - ?

Stephan Freigang - 2:09:45 - ?

Waldemar Cierpinski - 2:09:55 - ?

(I am too lazy to dig deeper.)

Renato Canova wrote:

I don't agree. We speak about blood of the same person, at the same time, so, if we want to give PRECISE and SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE to the data (how was, for example, years ago, when, if skiers or cyclists were OVER 50 HCT could'nt continue the competition with the excuse to look at their health), THIS BECOMES AN IMPORTANT ERROR.

I agree that this uncertainty/scattering range (from 44 - 48) is important. However, the error is not necessarily 10% in this example, because you don't know the actual value. For example, the real value could be 46, then the error would be +/-5%. Or it could be 50, then the error would be up to 12% (and the measured values systematically too low) etc.

adsfasfasdf wrote:

German Runner wrote:

I know folks on LRC hate the Mcmillan running calculator (and prefer IAAF tables or JK Running Calculator). That said, if you type in 13:12 in the Mcmillan running calculator you get 2:08:37 for the Marathon. Arne ran 5 seconds faster than that. In other words - it aligns perfectly.

I believe he would have been able to run 2:07:45 with better pacing, which equals 13:07. Still, nothing out of this world.

Having followed his career, I'd argue his ceiling is 13:05/27:10/2:07:00

But how many Americans can match that conversion? How many sub-13:20 guys do we have, vs. how many sub-2:10 marathoners? What are the 5k PRs of our sub-2:10 marathoners?

American runners generally underperform in the marathon. It´s pathetic to see a guy like Teg running 2,12 while Swedish Runner Mikael Ekvall ran the same time in Frankfurt Marathon recently with a 10000 PB of 28,31.

What I have read about EPO and Finnish skier Sami Heiskanen (national level athlete) tried EPO few weeks, his hemoglobin rised from 150 to 180.

"I realized how easy it was to build fitness and sharpness without the high altitude camps. The lactic acid in the muscles didn´t accumulate so much. Pace didn´t slow down on the uphill"

I found an old NY Times article where Heiskanen is mentioned as 30k world champion 1996, but he won the FINNISH championships.

Another, more famous skier Janne Immonen was only a national level athlete until started EPO and suddenly improved to the international level.

If EPO makes the blood too thick I would think that if you take also some plasma volume expander like Hemohes, which the Finnish skiers took in Lahti 2001, it will improve the blood viscocity. But I´m sure that EPO alone produced drastic improvements, just like blood transfusions did before. Especially if the athletes hemoglobin was ~140-150 naturally, just like in the case of Sami Heiskanen.

I'm totally with you on this one. He has got experience for nearly 20 years now. Not on the road, but who cares.

He is really accurate with his training and his diet, as far as I know.

And he is ready to take risks, as the Frankfurt Marathon shows on the one hand, and Berlin half marathon on the other. He finished this one in 1:21.

It's too bad there is even a discussion about this.

PS. I don´t think that Arne Gabius has ever doped, and this thread isn´t the best thread to discuss about doping, but that subject popped up earlier in this thread, as always.

All-time men's best 5000m

+=intermediate time in 10 000m race (official, unofficial or estimates

How many of these guys benefited from EPO?

21 12:49.28 Brahim Lahlafi MAR 15.04.68 1 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

25 12:49.71 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 10.10.70 2 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

30 12:50.24 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 2 Ostrava 12.06.2003

31 12:50.25 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 21.05.76 2 Bruxelles 26.08.2005

35 12:50.80 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 1 Roma 05.06.1996

36 12:50.86 Ali Saïdi-Sief ALG 15.03.78 1 Roma 30.06.2000

52 12:52.39 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 2 Roma 05.06.1997

56 12:52.53 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 1 Milano 09.06.1999

62 12:52.83 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 14.09.74 2 Saint-Denis 31.08.2003

68 12:53.41 Khalid Boulami MAR 07.08.69 4 Zürich 13.08.1997

69 12:53.45 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 2 Zürich 11.08.1999

97 12:54.70 Dieter Baumann GER 09.02.65 5 Zürich 13.08.1997

102 12:54.83 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 2 Milano 07.09.1996

122 12:55.39 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 3 Roma 07.07.1999

125 12:55.52 Hicham Bellani MAR 15.09.79 7 Roma 14.07.2006

136 12:55.76 Khalid Boulami MAR 07.08.69 4 Zürich 14.08.1996

141 12:55.85 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 1 Roma 12.07.2002

145 12:55.93 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 1 Paris 28.06.1996

155 12:56.18 Brahim Lahlafi MAR 15.04.68 4 Oslo 28.07.2000

171 12:56.60 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 10.10.70 6 Oslo 28.07.2000

196 12:57.73 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 1 Saint-Denis 04.06.1998

205 12:57.89 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 21.05.76 2 Stockholm 25.07.2006

213 12:58.13 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 1 Sevilla 28.08.1999

226 12:58.39 Saïd Aouita MAR 02.11.59 1 Roma 22.07.1987

235 12:58.58 Moukhled Al-Outaibi KSA 30.04.80 1rA Heusden-Zolder 23.07.2005

252 12:58.76 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 21.05.76 7 Saint-Denis 08.07.2006

253 12:58.80 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 10.10.70 3 Sevilla 28.08.1999

254 12:58.83 Ismaïl Sghyr FRA 16.03.72 7 Oslo 28.07.2000

265 12:58.99 Ismaïl Sghyr MAR 16.03.72 6 Zürich 14.08.1996

270 12:59.04 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 21.05.76 3 London 30.07.2004

273 12:59.09 Brahim Lahlafi MAR 15.04.68 4 Sevilla 28.08.1999

276 12:59.15 Salah Hissou MAR 16.01.72 5 Saint-Denis 04.07.2003

jjjjjj wrote:

97 12:54.70 Dieter Baumann GER 09.02.65 5 Zürich 13.08.1997

Baumann´s progression was a bit suspicious, as was his toothpaste theory. But you have to remember that 1991 Tokyo performance was done in a hot and humid weather, and he was coming back after an injury. He was fo sure very talented runner and had solid times year after year, but the 12.54 at the age of 32 was still a surprise, as was his 13.01 and especially Stephane Franke´s 13.03 in Zurich 1995. I remember watching that race, I was impressed at the time. Baumann´s 13.07,40 in 2002 at the age of 37 is also crazy, and makes me think that was he still clean all the time? I don´t know.

2003 13:15.07 Zürich 15 AUG

2002 13:07.40 Zürich 16 AUG

1999 13:02.63 Berlin 07 SEP

1998 13:04.10 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 14 JUL

1997 12:54.70 Zürich 13 AUG

1996 13:08.81 Atlanta (Olympic Stadium), GA 03 AUG

1995 13:01.72 Zürich 16 AUG

1994 13:12.47 Berlin 30 AUG

1992 13:09.03 Unknown 06 JUN

1991 13:28.67 Tokyo (Olympic Stadium) 01 SEP

1988 13:15.52 Seoul (Olympic Stadium) 01 OCT

Stephane Franke´s profile:

1998 13:21.46 Nürnberg 11 JUL

1996 13:40.94 Atlanta (Olympic Stadium), GA 01 AUG

1995 13:03.76 Zürich 16 AUG

1994 13:14.68 Berlin 30 AUG

1993 13:13.17 Bruxelles 03 SEP

U.N.O. wrote:

Baumann´s 13.07,40 in 2002 at the age of 37 is also crazy, and makes me think that was he still clean all the time?

Do you think he might have stopped doping because he was still fast after getting caught? Do you think the same about Gatlin?

Didn't Bernard Lagat run that fast at 40yrs old? What do you think of him?

So he ran his first marathon at age 33, and waited for a full year before he ran his second.

Imagine how much faster he would be today, if he started 10 years earlier and kept racing at least 2 marathons a year. Racing marathon is like a lot of other things. The more experience you are, the better you become. Too bad he wasted his prime on his mediocre track career.

The Way We Were wrote:

So he ran his first marathon at age 33, and waited for a full year before he ran his second.

Imagine how much faster he would be today, if he started 10 years earlier and kept racing at least 2 marathons a year. Racing marathon is like a lot of other things. The more experience you are, the better you become. Too bad he wasted his prime on his mediocre track career.

Note that he did his 3-5k pb´s in couple of years before the first marathon, dropping his 3-5k pb´s remarkably. After the improvement in track events it was easier to keep his speed good enough throughout the marathon training. Haile started his marathon career after years of very high level track career and did his marathon pb at 35 yrs of age. There´s still time to improve.

3000m

2014 7:41.41 Ostrava (Mestský Stadion) 17 JUN

2012 7:35.43 Stockholm (Olympiastadion) 17 AUG

2011 7:50.18 Rhede 08 JUL

2010 7:58.14 Pliezhausen 16 MAY

2009 7:46.05 Bochum 02 AUG

2008 7:51.75 Bochum 01 AUG

2007 7:52.44 Rehlingen 28 MAY

2006 7:50.36 Leverkusen 28 JUL

2005 8:18.07 Firenze 19 JUN

5000m

2014 13:25.50 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL

2013 13:12.50 Heusden-Zolder 13 JUL

2012 13:13.43 Oslo (Bislett) 07 JUN

2011 13:32.08 Rovereto 13 SEP

2010 13:31.86 Huelva 09 JUN

2009 13:28.45 Heusden-Zolder 18 JUL

2008 13:26.69 Heusden-Zolder 20 JUL

2007 13:27.48 Kassel 06 JUN

2006 13:30.74 Kassel 08 JUN

2005 13:33.26 Heusden-Zolder 23 JUL

awesome link..

U.N.O. wrote:

Haile started his marathon career after years of very high level track career and did his marathon pb at 35 yrs of age.

Imagine what Haile could have run if he tried marathon in his 20s when his 10k time was in 26:20s instead of 26:50s.

Gabius still has time to improve, but he could have already been a 2:06 guy if he had focused on marathon from early on.

KB would have run 2:01!!!!