RE: Top Canadian Marathoner Coaches Cheating Girlfriend to Huge PB

BlackToesBlackLungsBlackRoads wrote:

anything over 1:30 = no talent

Except for masters runners and women.

If she was photographed running the loop of Rideau Hall then the only place she could have cut the course was between Eddy and Portage, which is only about 350 meters.

http://www.armyrun.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AR_15_Course_Maps_Half.pdf

Randy Oldman wrote:

If she was photographed running the loop of Rideau Hall then the only place she could have cut the course was between Eddy and Portage, which is only about 350 meters.

At her pace 350 meters takes roughly two minutes.

Spread over the 7km split where she "sped up" (4.5 miles) that would be around 30 seconds per mile worth of cheating. Story checks out.

Honestly, I don't find the big OVERALL negative split very shocking at all. Lots of new runners are improving fast so don't know their ability. They may start at a certain goal pace, find themselves comfortable at halfway, and really take off. (My girlfriend started running this year and just ran a half marathon at faster than her 5k pace from April. She started at the pace McMillan projected from some of her races, but thanks to my excellent training plan she was in much better shape than that. ;)

The 4:02 km section in a 5:xx half marathon is pretty off though, and then there is the missing photo thing.

Rejean will see this soon enough and know that it looks weird. If there's an honest explanation like she felt good, really tried to hammer in (while removing a shirt) then bonked, they should say so. If she cheated, they should say so.

I thought the whole point is that she's not in the photos at Rideau Hall. OP posted her coming off the Alexandria bridge close to the National Gallery, and then on Colonel By, with the Peace Tower in the background. If you want to cut the course, crossing Sussex somehow would be the way to do it.

Randy Oldman wrote:

If she was photographed running the loop of Rideau Hall then the only place she could have cut the course was between Eddy and Portage, which is only about 350 meters.

http://www.armyrun.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AR_15_Course_Maps_Half.pdf

Er... wrote:

I thought the whole point is that she's not in the photos at Rideau Hall. OP posted her coming off the Alexandria bridge close to the National Gallery, and then on Colonel By, with the Peace Tower in the background. If you want to cut the course, crossing Sussex somehow would be the way to do it.

Original post

I determined photos were taken at the following points:

10.45K coming off the Alexandria Bridge

13.5K in loop around Rideau Hall

17.75K on Colonel By Drive between Rideau and University of Ottawa

I think you're misreading this. He says he determined those are the spots where photos were taken of runners. Not of the runner he's bizarrely obsessed with. In the same Original post he says, "She is NOT seen anywhere at 13.5K"Cutting 400m in Hull makes no sense. Surely his argument is she didn't loop around Rideau Hall, not that she cut a quarter mile in Hull?

Randy Oldman wrote:

Original post

I determined photos were taken at the following points:

10.45K coming off the Alexandria Bridge

13.5K in loop around Rideau Hall

17.75K on Colonel By Drive between Rideau and University of Ottawa

Sorry, misread the original post.

Cutting 400m in Hull makes no sense. Surely his argument is she didn't loop around Rideau Hall, not that she cut a quarter mile in Hull?

This is correct. I believe from her splits she was fit for a PB but a more modest one of 1:47-48. For whatever reason she reached the Rideau Hall loop, stopped, removed her bib, took a breather and then decided to run to the finish skipping the loop. The loop is about 2.55km so at 5:00/km pace she could have saved about 12:30 but ended up only saving about 8 minutes (1:47 projected vs. 1:39 finish) due to the removing the bib, pondering what to do now, etc.

Somewhere along the way to the finish pride overcame shame and she decided to lie her way to a sub 1:40.

There is no story here. The crux of your argument hinges on the time stamps of multiple photographers cameras that are calibrated to the race clock. You aren't accounting for Gun Time vs. Chip Time differential when you come up with paces like 4:02/km

This is not a Mike Rossi situation where he doesn't appear anywhere in race photos...she appears at almost every photo check point. Mike Rossi is an older man who shouldn't necessarily be expected to have a huge breakthrough race. This is a fit-looking young woman who could have easily dropped 11min in a half marathon with some more consistent training.

If you take the chip timing check points alone (I don't know the time stamps because she took her pictures down, so I couldn't re-do your analysis.), her race paces are not completely unreasonable. This is a pretty big race and if you are caught in the wrong starting coral for your fitness, you can spend upwards of more than 5k or 8k weaving around slower traffic. If you try to make up the time too quickly, you will gas yourself and you'll have a rough time at the finish.

Start to 5k - 25:42 (5:08/km pace)

5k to 16.1k - 47:57 (4:19/km pace)

16.1k to 21.1k - 25:40 (5:08/km pace)

Josie was listed in the Yellow Corral based on her bib.

http://www.armyrun.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2015_Army_Run_Corrals.pdf

Josie appears in a photo 200m from the finish with Bib 3351, who was also listed in the Yellow Corral. If you compare Josie's chip time to gun time with Bib 3351, it seems likely that it was Josie who started in the correct corral and ran a very erratically paced race and it was Bib 3351 who probably started in the Blue Corral (given that she has almost no differential between chip and gun time).

I'm open to entertaining other interpretations of these results but I think this is a legit run.

All of my analysis was done based on real time provided by sportstats and zoomphoto. Chip time vs. gun time is irrelevant. This is the relevant info:

Josie started the race at 9:34:15

She reached 5K at 9:59:57 (5:08 pace)

She is seen here at 10.45K

http://cache15.zoomphoto.ca/19...497229.jpg

The photo is time stamped 10:27:34 so it took her 27:37 to get from 5K to this point (5:04 pace)

She is NOT seen anywhere at 13.5K

She is next seen at 17.75K

http://cache15.zoomphoto.ca/19...567257.jpg

This photo is time stamped 10:56:46. So Josie apparently covered the 7.3K from the bridge to here in 29:12 (4:02/km pace!)

This results in her final 3.35K being covered in 16:48 (5:01 pace)

damn metric system. Someone convert this analysis to mile equivalents.

See calculations below. She averaged c.7:35/mile but was mostly over 8/mile except for a stretch a little under 5 miles she averaged 6:29/mile.

I have no idea if the OP's calculations are right and no say in whether or not she cheated. Just converting kilos to miles for clarification.

[quote]mind my pace wrote:

She reached 5K at 9:59:57 (5:08 pace) = 8:15/mile

It took her 27:37 to get from 5K to this point (5:04 pace) = 8:11/mile

Josie apparently covered the 7.3K in 29:12 (4:02/km pace!) = 6:29/mile

This results in her final 3.35K being covered in 16:48 (5:01 pace) = 8:03/mile

This guy's claim, apparently based on chip timing mats, is that she ran 5k at 8:15/mile while weaving around traffic. Then, trying to make up for lost time, she ran 11.1k at 6:57/mile, then faded and ran the last 5k at 8:15/mile.Again, I don't know these people and I think OP's delving into her race results is bizarre. I was attracted to the thread mostly because I grew up in Ottawa and the race route follows a large chunk of what used to be my regular Sunday long run.That said...5k @ 8:15, then hammer 11k @ 6:57, then drop down to 5k @ 8:15 again? That sounds...implausible.

skinnystiks wrote:

If you take the chip timing check points alone, her race paces are not completely unreasonable. This is a pretty big race and if you are caught in the wrong starting coral for your fitness, you can spend upwards of more than 5k or 8k weaving around slower traffic. If you try to make up the time too quickly, you will gas yourself and you'll have a rough time at the finish.

Start to 5k - 25:42 (5:08/km pace) = 8:15/mile

5k to 16.1k - 47:57 (4:19/km pace) = 6:57/mile

16.1k to 21.1k - 25:40 (5:08/km pace) = 8:15/mile

.

At this point I've spent too much of my time on this and will just let it die.

The pacing is unlikely but possible. There are a few other bib numbers that would plot in this same spectrum of bad pacing (1183, 2102, 1495) but I don't suppose that they ALL cheated too.

Maybe I'm too much of an idealist and don't believe that 10 to 20 people in a race with 10,000 people would cheat.

Just an example as to how the time stamping seems off:

Bib #2657

1:53:22 gun

1:48:50 chip

https://www.sportstats.ca/display-results.xhtml?raceid=22877&status=results&bib=2657

http://www.zoomphoto.ca/eventgallerysearch/19744/2657/1/

Average Pace for the 1st 5 per timing: 5:10/k

Average pace for the last 16.1 per timing : 5:09/k

4:22 difference between gun and chip

Crosses start line – 9:34:22 (photo stamped near start at 9:34:48 – doesn’t look like a 26 second gap but I digress)

http://www.zoomphoto.ca/viewphoto/19744-110-25580955/1/

Bridge photo at 10.45K– 10:27:31

http://www.zoomphoto.ca/viewphoto/19744-110-25497226/1/

Based on time stamp 53:08 elapsed to the 10.45K point – 5:05 per km pace….good enough

Rideau Loop photo 13.5K – time stamp 10:41:09

http://www.zoomphoto.ca/viewphoto/19744-110-25559628/1/

So the next 3.05K – using strictly time stamping was covered in 13:38 (4:28 pace)?

Colonel By photo at 17.75K – time stamp 11:05:01

http://www.zoomphoto.ca/viewphoto/19744-110-25539828/1/

So the NEXT 4.2K – using strictly time stamping was covered in 23:52 (5:41 pace)?

I believe all the 11:21 to 11:23 photos are the stretch to the finish.

Please correct any math as required – but given this there may be some discrepancies in the file names as they pertain to real time.

4:32 between gun and chip - please adjust all #s by 10 seconds

Here's the thing though.

She's run a ton of half marathons in her short running life.

Now she has this amazing coach why would she run such a stupid paced raced?

TheGreatOne#98 wrote:

Here's the thing though.

She's run a ton of half marathons in her short running life.

Now she has this amazing coach why would she run such a stupid paced raced?

That is the thing - the file names may not be true time stamps in all the cases...here's another one. Please check them out and see if there's an error in the calcs if you could.

Bib 2547

Time for 1st 5km 22:30 4:30 Pace

Bridge Photo 10:21:09 10.45

Rideau Photo 10:33:59 13.5 0:12:50 3.05 0:04:12 Pace

Colonel By 10:56:38 17.75 0:22:39 4.25 0:05:20 Pace

I apologize as I don't know the actual photo location of the Rideau Hall loop. I estimated it to be at 13.5K but it is most likely later in the loop based on your findings. The exact location is irrelevant in Josie's case as she never passed this point. Regarding Bib #2657, if you ignore the Rideau Hall photo point and take the split between 10.45K and 17.75K you get 7.3km traversed in 37:30 (5:08 pace) which corresponds well with their 16.1 split. Earlier in the thread I did the analysis with the winner of the race so I am pretty confident in the time stamps and locations of the 10.45K and 17.75k marks +/- 5 seconds/km